Trading the Number 1 Pick

NFL Draft Logo - NFLJeff Ireland made it clear yesterday that the number one overall pick is up for sale

“The No. 1 pick is no different from the 22nd pick. You’ve got to make the right selection. You just can’t miss on it. We’re going to do everything in our power to make the right choices, whether it be to take the pick or move down. We’ll listen to all offers.””We’re open for business.”

So what exactly does that mean?  Exactly what he said, they want to trade out of the number 1 pick.  So let’s do what everyone else does, let’s break it down.  The Miami Dolphins want to trade out of number 1, they want to gain more picks in this draft and they want to do so immediately, and in not so many words, he has hinted to who those trade partners may be.

Jeff Ireland said at the opening of Senior Bowl week that he was dissppointed not to have the opportunity to watch BC QB Matt Ryan who is not playing in the game.  He followed that by saying that he likes Ryan and there is still plenty of time to talk with him.  Why would he say that?  Is he really looking at drafting a QB number 1 overall?  No, of course not, but by showing interest in doing so, it may convince a team like the Falcons, who could pick in the 3 spot, to move up and draft him number 1 overall.  Trade partner number 1.

Ireland was also asked about what defense the team will run, a 3-4 or a 4-3.  His response was something to the effect of not knowing for sure yet, that the coaches have to sit down and decide which direction to go…to paraphrase.  The problem with that is everyone knows that the Dolphins will run a 3-4.  Pasqualoni, Rodgers, and Bowles all operated a 3-4 defense in Dallas, Bill Parcells has always run a 3-4, so why on earth would that change?  Current roster ability?  Hell no, they will simply go and get what they need to have a 3-4…don’t think for a minute that any of them will risk failing for a defense they don’t believe in.  So really, why say that?  Simple, the draft options.

It has been said that St. Louis really likes Glenn Dorsey.  So by saying that the Phins may still run a 4-3, a defense that fits Dorsey a lot more, might give St. Louis the feeling that they should trade up one spot to get him. 

The same can be said for Chris Long, the DE who would be a nice fit in a 3-4…you want him, you might have to trade up to number 1 to do so.

All of this is nothing more than conjecture of course and this draft is so undeniably void of a clear cut number 1 overall, that you have to spew a few minced words to get the interest to boil a little.  There is still one more tell tale sign that the Dolphins have a plan…a hint if you will.  “Whether your picking at number 1 or at number 22 you still have to hit on the player”.  Nothing major at face value, except for one small detail…the Cowboys pick at 22.

Perhaps a mere coincedence of course, but 22?  Why would that be a number that would stick in Irelands mind?  Perhaps because he was in Dallas all year and knew they had it?  Maybe, but it could also mean that behind closed doors, the Dolphins know that 22 may be the slot they will be picking in.  Afterall, many rumors still abound about the Boyz’ moving up.

Is it realistic to think that the Cowboys will spend the money to move up that far?  It would cost them both 1′s, a player or two, a 1 next year, and maybe, probably, more.  So what are some of the options to get the Dolphins at 22 and the Cowboys to McFadden?  Matt Ryan?

If the Dolphins could convince the Falcons to move up two spots to number 1 for Ryan, the cost would be rather minimal.  The Falcons 1st rounder and 2nd rounder maybe.  An extra pick next year…say a 2nd.  The Falcons grab Ryan, the Dolphins slide down to 3 and then pull the trigger on a Dallas deal that suddenly isn’t AS expensive…but a lot cheaper for the Cowboys.

We could do this all day long when it comes down to it.  What we do know is that Jeff Ireland will listen to any and all offers that he can get.  When it is all said and done, he might just take anything that includes multiple picks. 

This team needs players, it needs playmakers, and it seems Ireland knows this all too well.  Forget about the value chart, it doesn’t appear to be the driving force behind what Ireland reckognizes he needs.  If a player at 22 has the same value to this group, then it might not matter what anyone thinks.  It will surely put every mock draft to shame.

The Miami Dolphins number 1 overall pick is up for sale…the question really is only the price that it carries…and how well the Dolphins can convince 31 other teams that they are 100 percent sold on drafting 4 different guys with that one pick.


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  • Ian-Inside the Iggles

    I think you read a little too much into that quote. That sounds like your typical politically correct statement of "We might do anything". You pretty much have to say that, and keep all options open. I think trading down would be the right move. I don’t see any can’t miss player in the top 5. Matt Ryan is no Peyton Manning, Chris Long is no Mario Williams, and Jake Long is no Orlando Pace. I can’t even think of a DT who went #1 overall that was a dominating force.I agree with Ireland that the talent at the top five of the first round is pretty much the same as the talent at the bottom five.(for this draft)The only player that seems to have "special" talent in the top 5 range is Darren McFadden, and the NFL has been shying away from taking RBs very high in the draft.With no slam dunk number 1 overall it makes sense to move down, and gain multiple picks.I would expect Ireland to try and hype every player projected in the top of the draft to hopefully create interest from other teams to trade up.

  • George (MaineDolfan)

    Brian…I know we’ve discussed this before but I think it’s imperative to move out of the #1 spot.  There isn’t ONE player there that will make that big of a difference on our team.  We need SEVERAL players to start/continue this rebuild process.  If that means taking less value than what is perceived the #1 pick is worth, then so be it.  Trading with Dallas makes perfect sense here.  Having two first round picks is very attractive.  I may be wrong but I believe they have #22 and #26 or #27.  In my opinion players picked in those spots should be able to step in and contribute right away.  Not sure about how you learned math but to me 2 is always more than 1.  Also, I think it’s pretty save to say we could also get another later round pick this year and/or a pick next year along with a lower level player from Dallas, the names Fasano and Carpenter have come up quite a bit.  Now…you call me and say I’ve got 2 #1′s a player on the younger side who can start for you now plus another pick either this year or next….I make that deal all day long.  We are now looking at 3 to 4 potential starters instead of 1.  I like the odds that we would hit on these 3 to 4 players as opposed to the one.  It’s a pure numbers game to me.  Even if the so called "value" isn’t the same, who cares.  The value of that number one pick is only as valuable as the players there to be taken.  This year….it’s not 3000 pts.  If you have a Peyton Manning type QB coming out then it’s probably worth even more than the proverbial 3000 pts.  So…I say take the draft value chart and put it in the circular file.  Give me mulitple players and picks and I’m good.

  • Brian Miller

    We do agree on that George.

  • Brian Miller

    Ian, I really don’t think I read too much into it considering it really is nothing more than all hypothetical conjecture as it is…however, given that you agree he needs to hype it up…don’t you think he certainly could be doing that?  I do think that they want to move that pick…saying "we are open for business", they want to hear the offers.  Lets not forget, Parcells is a big fan of trading down…and we all know he really is calling the shots.

  • tedhill

    Here’s my plan. First off, Oakland needs to win the coin flip with Atlanta for the 3rd pick. Next we select Matt Ryan. The Rams will take Glenn Dorsey or Chris Long. The Raiders will take Darren McFadden. Now, Atlanta is in real trouble. They really needed Ryan or McFadden. So we tell them to select Dorsey or Long (whichever one is available) and then we trade our picks in addition to receiving their 2nd rounder and maybe a future pick.

  • Mike

    It’s nice to finally see someone who knows what they are doing running our team.  As opposed to the Three Stooges we’ve had in the past 7 years. 

  • Drew

    Ahem…Niner fans all over feel that a trade for the #29 pick (from Indy) Alex Smith & our 2nd & 3rd rounders for the #1  pick and Jason Taylor would be a good pick…riiight? riiiight?  say it with me…Alex Smith would flurish under the Big Tuna’s watch….  

  • Brian Miller

    Drew:  LOL..yeah because we all Love Alex Smith…:)

  • drew

    Well I thought so…to bad more people don’t talk bout it…It’s more like an unsaid thing…