Perdicting The Unpredictable

crystal ball - Xzess.comIt is hard enough sometimes to predict a mock draft for the NFL…if you want to do it seriously.  Anyone can throw a bunch of names down in a slotted order and call it a mock draft.  In fact, it is almost impossible to read a mock by a fan site when you know that there is a biased objective to get a player that the teams fan wants.  I have made it a point not to do that here.  So today, I’m going to try and predict the unpredictable in terms of trades.  Both during the draft and before.  This is not a mock draft.  Just a series of trade predictions and why.  This is for all teams, and not just the Miami Dolphins.

Players:

Jeremy Shockey – Shockey has been at the center of a lot of trade rumors dating back to the image of him drinking in a loge box during the Super Bowl. In fact, before that.  For all the talk of JS coming to Miami, the Phins are not going to trade a 2nd round pick for the problematic oft injured TE.  But New Orleans who already tried once, will be trying again.  I see Shockey going to the Saints for a 2nd round pick.

Roy Williams -  Williams has been a very big threat WR in Detroit, but his contract situation says that the Lions need to think ahead.  Williams will become a free agent soon and the Lions are cap strapped so bad they probably wouldn’t be able to sign him.  Despite all the talk about a trade, it is still hard to believe that Matt Millen could actually pull one off.  Williams might get traded, but my guess is it won’t be until after the draft if at all.

Chad Johnson – So much talk by Johnson and so much denial by the Bengals.  Johnson wants out but he will not skip training camp and hold out.  The Bengals know this.  Still, having that type of cancer looming over your team is not a good thing.  The Bengals will want a number 1 for the talented mouth and right now, teams are not going to be willing to trade that.  For all the talk of Dallas, they really can’t afford to have both Owens and Ocho Cinco on the same team.  If Johnson goes, it will be to someone like the Redskins or the Eagles.  I don’t think he goes anywhere.

Lito Sheppard – Amazing how a talented corner can draw so little interest.  The Eagles want to move him and there are teams that want and need him.  The problem?  No one seems interested in giving up the comp.  Sheppard will likely be part of a draft day trade.  I look for the Eagles to do one of two things.  Move up in round 1 using Sheppard, or moving back into round 1 using Sheppard.  They may even try and move around in round 2…again, using Sheppard.  If they are unable to pull off a trade, Sheppard should be traded on day two for future picks.

Donovin McNabb – Another Eagle who is hearing the trade rumors and not getting the interest.  No worries, he isn’t going anywhere.

Jason Taylor – Most of what happens with Taylors’ future in Miami hinges on what the Phins do with the first overall pick.  Keep it and take Chris Long, and Taylor becomes expendable.  Draft Jake Long and miss on a LB in round 2 and Taylor is a must keep.  Jacksonville is talking a 3rd rounder, the Phins want a 2nd and 5.  Too far apart…to hard to predict.  If Miami’s draft goes the way they want, Taylor will be gone.  3 scenarios play out for me.  Taylor to Cleveland in a trade that brings Derek Anderson to Miami.  Taylor to Jacksonville for a 2nd rounder.  Finally, Taylor remains in Miami and is traded prior to the league deadline during the season for picks next year.  My money is on the latter.

Teams Looking Trade:

Miami – Without question the Dolphins are trying to move the first overall pick.  The question is can they find a partner.  I would love to say yes but that would be a homer prediction.  The fact is that barring a deal in hand, the Phins are taking their choice at number one.  It is the first 2nd rounder that could become a prized pick.  Look for Atlanta to move up to 32 come round 2.  They slide back 3 spots at the top of the round due to the rotating selections for same record teams.  Miami will try and will use all of the clock in every round.

St. Louis – The Rams have been rumored to have interest in moving up one spot for Jake Long.  I don’t buy it.  It is a ridiculous move that would cost them a draft pick for one spot.  Rick Speilman is not in St. Louis.  Discard the notion, they will not trade up in round 1.  In fact, they will not likely trade out of the 2nd pick at all.  They will have their choice of two of their 3 guys.  Jake Long, Chris Long, or Glen Dorsey.  No need for them to move either way. 

Atlanta - It seems like such a long time ago that the Falcons were a shoe in to trade up for Matt Ryan.  Now as the draft comes closer more talk centers on the Falcons dropping back and not up.  With a serious need at QB an Dline, the Falcons could take either with the 3rd overall pick.  However, it seems the Falcons will use every ounce of energy to drop back, perhaps with Dallas or Carolina.  The Falcons are the real player in this years draft.  Already stacked with first day picks and in an envious position at the 3 spot.  I think the Falcons use the pick at 3.  I think they move up to take a QB in round 2.

Dallas –  The Cowboys have two firsts and because of that are naturally going to be mentioned as a team looking to trade up.  They still might.  With Darren McFadden rumors dying it appears more likely the Cowboys will wait it out.  However, a trade for PacMan Jones will alleviate the need to draft a corner and the Cowboys may try and slide up to guarantee themselves a running back.  Thing would need to happen though.  I think the Cowboys stay put and use their picks on a WR and a RB.  They will talk, but they won’t walk.

Kansas City – Carl Peterson is a man who likes to talk trade, but he is a very tough negotiator and because of that the team will carry a lot of speculation.  Moving down in round 1 is more likely and a team like Carolina appears to be someone that might be willing to move up.  I think that Kansas City makes a trade out of their slot and moves down, with who?  Don’t know. 

Carolina – The Panthers are an interesting team this year.  They could sit back and hope that an Olineman drops into their laps, but a guard is more likely.  Moving up to the 5 hole with KC makes the most sense but the question is will they do it?  I don’t think so.  I think they stay where they are at and draft Branden Albert at guard instead.

Denver – The Broncos are the movers and shakers of the NFL on draft day.  In fact, they seem to have a history of making deals already.  This year could be a little different.  The Broncos may try and move back rather than up.  If a team like Dallas covets a RB and is willing to part with some picks, this is the landing spot.  Dallas may pony up a 1, a two, and 3 next year to move up.  Keep an eye on the Broncs.

Vikings – Minnesota got lucky last year with the drafting of Adrian Peterson.  They almost moved out of their slot.  Rick Speilman as Miami fans know will make foolish trades.  The Vikings have two areas of need.  The front 7 had a hard time stopping the run last year and their WR corp got a little better with Bernard Berrian but still needs some help.  I think the Vikes go WR later but on their target list is Oline and LB.  The Vikings will try and move up a few slot to get a DE, DT, or LB.  If Derrick Harvey falls past NE…the Vikes will try very hard to move up.

Bengals – The Bengals are a team that really could move around on draft day.  Facing a load of questions on their roster in terms of image, the Bengals should try and move Ocho Cinco.  If the Bengals really want to make an impact on their roster, moving up in the draft would be smart.  They could easily package the WR and their 9 slot and move high enough to get a guy like Gholston, Dorsey, or Ellis.  They very well may try, it is just a matter of what they are going to offer.  Come draft day, I think they try but unless they offer up CJ, they will be stuck at 9, I don’t think they offer him up.

In Closing:

I will update this again in the final week leading to the draft.  With less that 18 days to go, a lot can and will still change.  Check back for more draft coverage over the next 2 and half weeks as I cover the reasons why Miami should and shouldn’t draft the other top 4 prospects and what they Phins may have to do to actually trade out of the 1 slot.

Topics: Dallas Cowboys, Jason Taylor, Lito Sheppard, Miami Dolphins, NFL Draft, NFL Rumors, NFL Trades

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  • Todd

    Fans have C Long at 38% ? HUH??  Do they realize we will be running a 3-4 on defense?  Yes, he’s maybe the safest pick in the draft…. if you run a 4-3.  He will not be the same person in Miami as he would in a Giants uniform who runs a 4-3.   He’ll be a man with no position.  At 271 pounds he’s toooo small for 3-4 DE and toooo big and slow for OLB…. imagine a 271 pound guy trying to cover that much ground all game!  Taylor is the best player on the Dolphins, but would he be the best if we asked him to be nose tackle.   No, b/c that’s not his position.  We have the same problem with Matt Roth now.   Long would have to gain 30 lbs or lose 20 and get quicker to wear a Phins uniform. 

  • Todd

    I think Miami should ditch the draft chart value table and trade down to whoever they can in the top 10 if it means still being able to get a top tackle (Albert or Clady) AND adding on an early 2nd rounder like Cliff Avril, Trevor Laws, or Antoine Cason.