The Sharp’s Are Up To Something Phishy!

This is a true story!

Back in early March, a good friend of mine planned a trip to Vegas.   I love to place bets from time to time, especially when I know someone is going to Vegas.  So I starting thinking about what I was going to put my money on, even though my friend wasn’t making the trip until June.  

I like making future bets, so I checked out the odds on the Super Bowl, the Miami Dolphins were 30/1.  Let me remind you, at this time Miami had signed Karlos Dansby, but hadn’t really made any other noise in free agency other than signing Richie Incognito.  Us fans (myself anyway), were keeping our fingers crossed Miami would draft Dez Bryant, and also counting on Jason Taylor coming back for one more year.  Miami would be pretty good, but a lot of things would have to go their way to win a championship.

I’m not the kind of person that would put money on a team other than my favorite.  I can’t put myself in a situation where I would benefit financially if my favorite team lost…..I just couldn’t do it…..in any sport.  So if I was going to make a bet at all, it had to be on Miami, despite the odds being a little steep at 30/1. 

June finally arrived, and I kept checking the odds.  By now I was feeling REALLY good about Miami, especially when I kept seeing the 30/1 odds.  We traded for Brandon Marshall, had a good looking draft, guys are getting healthy and working hard!  There was no way the Miami Dolphins were still at 30/1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  I eagerly handed my friend a $100 bill and asked him to bet on Miami to win it all.  In my eyes, this bet had good value, and I was going to have a little added fun when I watched the Dolphins play this year. 

When you place a future bet, you get a receipt with your bet on it, the odds, the payout, etc……and you can mail it in if you win, you don’t have to make a trip to Vegas to redeem your ticket.  So when my friend got back, he gave me the ticket.  I immediately looked at it, and it said “Pro Football Championship, Miami Dolphins, 15/1.” 

Right away, I thought my friend placed the wrong bet.  These were the odds for Miami to win the AFC, that’s not what I wanted!  Now I’m thinking that if Miami does make it to the Super Bowl, they won’t win because my friend jinxed them by placing the wrong bet.  I was hurt…..didn’t know what to say…..should I be a little upset?  There was no way this just happened!  I asked my friend again, are you sure you told them “Miami to win the Super Bowl?”  “Yep,” he replied, “that’s the ticket they gave me, told me the odds were 15/1.”

I was still stuck on the notion that this was some kind of mistake.  So later that night, I checked the odds again and sure enough, Miami was listed at 30/1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  Ok, now I was getting a little peeved.  The ticket was from the sportsbook in Caesar’s Palace, I had to make the call.  I got a hold of someone at the sportsbook, and asked the guy about the ticket I had and what exactly it is good for. 

The guy asked me what was on the ticket…..so I told him.  He said, “yep, that ticket is for Miami to win the Super Bowl, the odds are 15/1.”  I began to explain to him that all the places I’ve looked on the Internet had Miami listed at 30/1, the 15/1 odds can’t be right.  He then schooled me on a few things.

The guy at the sportsbook explained to me that the Internet can’t post current odds on future bets.  There are a few sites you can go to and pay to see the odds, but most free sites don’t have up-to-the-minute odds.  He continued to say, “the Dolphins were at 30/1, but once they traded for that receiver (Brandon Marshall!) a lot of money started coming in on Miami so the odds dropped.”  Now, I don’t know about you, but I’m not sold on the idea that a lot of Dolphin fans made their way to Vegas and put money on Miami, the bets had to have come from the sharps living in Vegas!

I couldn’t believe it.  I hung up the phone a little disappointed at first, but the more I thought about it, the more I began to understand what this all meant.  The sharps make a living by winning bets.  They don’t bet with their hearts, but rather with their heads.  They look for value in a bet, and they see some value with Miami winning the Super Bowl.  Now I know they aren’t the odds on favorite, but the sharps probably rank them in the top 10 considering how the odds have moved in the past couple months.  This means they must feel Miami has a legitimate shot to hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February! 

PhinPhanatics………get your popcorn ready!

Phins Up!

BEL

Topics: Dez Bryant, Jason Taylor, Karlos Dansby, Miami Dolphins, Richie Incognito, Super Bowl

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  • Alex

    Future odds vary wildly from sportsbook to sportsbook. just checking two online places Miami is 45-1 and 37-1 these are actual bettable odds.

    Caesars is owned by Harrahs who typically have the worst futures odds on the planet. It has nothing to do with “sharps” betting Miami there.

    As a dolphin fan, I hate the bet even at 45-1. burning money.

  • Patrik Nohe

    A few years ago, following 1-15 the odds were something obscene like 85:1. My friend (Bears fan) made a 20 dollar bet for me on a trip to Vegas and gave me the slip which I put in my wallet. Around the time they were 11-5 and headed to the playoffs I started getting a little excited. I still have the slip for good luck actually. Anyways, great post, very enjoyable. Definitely a refreshing break from the regular stuff that gets posted.

  • Deof Movestofca

    Just wondering about how accurately betting predict eventual SB winners. In other words, how often does the team given the best odds to win the SB actually win it? Unless there’s a very high correlation, I’m not going to get too excited by the whole deal.

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