MassanuttenRef’s Phins Mock Draft — Round 1


Okay!  If you have been following my pre-draft articles, I have done much research on potential Dolphins draft picks and reported my findings to you my readers.  Before I get into the picks that I believe my beloved Dolphins will take in the 2011 NFL Draft, I would like to thank the people at NFL Draft Scout, National Football Post, Consensus Draft Services, UniversalDraft, and WalterFootball for their research which I leveraged to come to my conclusions.  I would also like to thank all of you who have followed my articles, some of whom have contributed to a lively debate.  I plan to mock the Dolphins 2011 draft picks in three articles.  One article for each day of the draft.  This will give you plenty of opportunity to critique my picks.

So, here it is … MassanuttenRef’s Phins Mock Draft – Round 1.

With the 15th Pick:  TRADE — Chicago Bears (from Miami) select Gabe Carimi (OT – Wisconsin)

The Bears desparately need an offensive tackle to protect Jay Cutler.  They gave up the most sacks in 2010 — 52 of them.  The Bears can’t wait until the 29th pick to get a top tier tackle — the top five may be gone with the run by the Cowboys (#9), Giants (#19), Chiefs (#21), Colts (#22), and Eagles (#23).  With Carimi from nearby Madison, the Bears will get the jump on four of the five and get a quality tackle who will likely be a starter for many years.

The Dolphins trade their first round pick (#15 – Trade Value = 1,050) for the Bears first round (#29 - Trade Value = 640), second round (#62 - Trade Value = 284) and third round (#93 - Trade Value = 128) picks.  The Dolphins get three picks for one to fill the many holes they have at QB, RB, OL, TE, OLB, and WR — good job Jeff Ireland.

With the 29th Pick:  Miami Dolphins select Andy Dalton (QB – TCU)

Andy Dalton is arguably the most prepared QB in this year’s draft.  He has been recently rising up the draft boards.  However, I discussed his virtues in an article back on March 8th.  This was before he was interviewed by the Dolphins three times, before he was on ESPN with John Gruden, and before Peter King mocked him with the Dolphins at the 15th pick.  I have been saving the following table which shows why Dalton is the third best QB in the draft (and maybe the best):

In the table, I have compared the five second tier QBs in the draft — primarily focusing on their 2010 passing stats.  I wish for you to please focus your attention on the categories in blue, where Dalton leads in all categories.  Dalton is a four year starter and two year captain at TCU passing for a total of more than 10,000 career yards — he is experienced.  He has 43 career wins – he is a proven winner and suits up for every game.  In 2010, Dalton has the highest completion percentage (66.1%) and highest touchdown percentage (8.5%) — he is accurate and deadly.  Dalton has the lowest interception percentage (1.9%) and lowest sack percentage (2.5%) — he avoids negative plays (mistakes and losses).  And, if you were wondering, Dalton also bests Gabbert in all six categories and Newton in five categories

Dalton is truly the antithesis of Chad Henne. 

Critics say Dalton does not have a strong enough arm, yet his YPA and YPC are among the highest in the draft and on his pro day threw a 60 yard completion while on the run.  Critics also say he played against inferior opponents, yet his numbers did not drop when he played against an excellent Wisconsin team on the big stage in the Grand Daddy of the All — The Rose Bowl.  Finally, critics say that he played in a spread offense and will have trouble in the NFL under center, yet his quick feet (quantified at the Combine with 4.27 sec in the 20 yard shuttle and 6.93 sec in the 3-cone drill) plus his intelligence and work ethic indicate that he will easily learn.  Besides, the Dolphins plan to run more of the shotgun offense in 2011.

Tony Sparano will love Dalton’s intelligence, work ethic, and his ability to avoid negative plays.  Brian Daboll will love Dalton’s accuracy and his demonstrated ability to work out of the shotgun to include his demonstrated ability to audible and check-off at the line.  I think Dalton is the perfect pick at this position in the draft.  He can come in and contribute this season if Henne does not improve — this despite the lockout’s impact on rookie QB preparation.

By the way, I might even pick Andy Dalton with the 15th pick in the draft.    I am that sick and tired of seeing poor throws, stupid interceptions and needless stacks — especially, in the fourth quarter.  I want to see greater accuracy, more TDs, and minimal negative plays.  And, I believe the Dolphins don’t need another tall, strong armed, and slow footed QB.  I believe the Dolphins will give Henne another chance.  And, I believe that the Dolphins will be grateful they have Andy Dalton ready to come in after the 2011 bye-week to lead the Dolphins back to the playoffs.

Okay!  This is my take on the first round.  Tell me what you think!

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Tags: 15th Pick 2011 Mock Draft 29th Pick Andy Dalton Brian Daboll Chad Henne Chicago Bears Gabe Carimi Jeff Ireland Miami Dolphins NFL Draft Tony Sparano

  • http://www.bleepthatithink.blogspot.com Michael Rosenbloom

    I would LOVE for that situation to happen, but I’m not sure I see the Bears giving up three picks for that. If they were moving up to get a QB or some skill position guy, I could see it. But there are more than a few good offensive lineman prospects and I don’t see none of them being left at #29. Danny Watkins will probably be there, Nate Solder might be there or/and Derek Sharrod as well. At least one of them will be.

    On a sidenote, if that did happen, I would have no problem with them grabbing Dalton. Excellent QB with a great track record.

  • MassanuttenRef

    My research has shown that there are stories in the press about the Bears trading up for Carimi — including one by McShay of ESPN. They have looked closely at him. If it were me, I would take Castonzo.

    Also, there are stories that Atlanta is very interested in Kerrigan stating he would be a good pairing with Abraham to improve their pass rush. Atlanta would also be a good trade partner with Miami in order to get high enough to select Kerrigan. They recently brought Kerrigan in again for more interviews. The Dolphins would get Atlanta’s first (27th), second (#59), and fourth (123rd) picks. The same mock that I have come up with would still apply … as you will see.

  • Posh

    Chicago GM already said multiple times if moving would be down

  • Chris Leeuw

    Dude – I truly love the time you take in your breakdowns and enjoy your articles, but…come on..

    If Jerry Angelo gave up the entire front end of his draft for a low-1st round grade OT, he would be the laughing stock of the league and be harassed for lunch money at every NFL get-together for the rest of his born days.

    • MassanuttenRef

      Last year, the Chargers essentially traded Odrick, Misi, and Dobbins for Ryan Matthews. Do you think that was a good trade? Is there GM a laughing stock of the league? In the end, the Chargers may have gotten what they truly need.

      So, what is the difference this year? Who do you think will be willing to trade up for the Dolphins pick?

      The Bears have a great defense. They only have a few needs on offense — some of which they could fill in free agency. One thing they can’t get is a good young tackle. If they could have just protected Cutler, maybe last year would have been different. So, might they give up a very late round first, second and third round picks for a starting tackle for years to come? I think so. It might not be as ridiculous as you think!

      And, by the way, Carimi or Castonzo are not low grade first round OTs. What draft boards are you looking at?

      • Chris Leeuw

        Just razzin’ ya, not trying to sound mean :)

        Last year Mathews was a skill player – a perceived game changer and thought by many to be the best RB in the draft.

        This draft doesn’t feature a Jake Long or Joe Thomas, a stud top 5 pick LT. Sure Carimi is solid , but by low grade OT I meant a pick being forecasted in the mid to late end of the round. Giving up everyone of their top 3 picks to jump up a handful of spots I don’t think is realistic. Maybe they do it for their 1st and 3rd. Bears have needs too, that’s a lot to sacrifice. Would you be happy if Ireland made a similar move?

        Maybe the Bucs are a good trade partner if a solid D-liner like Bowers is there, but still nabbing 3 picks for 1 is wishful thinking IMO.

        • MassanuttenRef

          In moving up or down in this draft (without trades that include roster players), it is all about trade value. It will be strictly by the book (or should I say the chart). Check it out at http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php or go to my previous article which outlines the specifics for the Dolphins (http://phinphanatic.com/2011/02/24/trade-down-possibilities-for-the-dolphins/).

          • Chris Leeuw

            It is about trade value..you’re right about that.

            There would be absolutely no value for the Bears to give up 3 high picks to move up a few spots to select Gabe Carimi. That would be highway robbery by the Fins, doesn’t matter what these charts say.

            The Chargers didn’t give us 3 picks last year – they threw in Dobbins, equivalent of us throwing in someone like Walden. A 3rd Round pick would have had WAY more value. Not to mention the Chargers were desperate for Mathews after losing LT and Sproles.

            I was joking with my original comment, but your “lesson” is kind of offensive.

            But, hey…not trying ruffle feathers, I respect your opinion…after all the Saints gave up their entire ’99 draft for Ricky :) This would be equally shocking.

  • Phinsbin

    Lmao I agree this mock is a joke…look at it in bears perspective cmon son!….this is why I stick with phinsider cause they are somewhat realistic.

  • tpl

    This would be great if it happens. And to those naysayers who say it cannot happen, its very possible. Especially if the Bears think they are one player away from the super bowl. 3 picks for 1! Dalton would be great pick! And Drew Brees’ arm isn’t a cannon and it doesn’t seem to affect him! There are several teams who might trade with Miami, the pats for one to get Mark Ingram.

  • Jackson

    I am that sick and tired of seeing poor throws, stupid interceptions and needless stacks — especially, in the fourth quarter.

    I’ll be one of millions to second that!

  • KLCSDAD0912

    I’d love this scenario to actually work out, but I’m not sure how realistic it is. So many unknowns on draft day, especially now that everyone is staring down the barrel of the new CBA. Great read, though!

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  • Michael

    I would love to see the Dolphins trade down and pick up Andy Dalton. I think that he is better than the big four (Newton, Gabbert, Locker and Mallett). I would prefer to wait until the 2nd round and take the best OL available in the first round. If Dalton is not there, then the Dolphins should take Rick Stanzi.
    I am skeptical, however, that any team will want to trade with them. My guess is that they will be stuck at pick 15. In which case, I would stick with the “pick the best offensive linemen” strategy.

  • Ian

    It would be awesome if the Phins land that trade with Chicago…my bet is that it won’t happen, but crazier things have happened. I sure hope the Phins go offensive heavy in this draft, especially a speedy pass-catching TE like DJ Williams or Rob Housler. I also hope they don’t ignore their one glaring weakness on defense…Free Safety. Reshad Jones and Chris Clemons just aren’t that good in my opinion.

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