Chad Henne and the Total QBR

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ESPN charted football games in detail over the past three years (2008 thru 2010) with AdvancedNFLStats.com and FootballOutsiders.com given credit for assisting in the charting of data.

Here are the top ten (10) Total QBR for a given year during the period (2008-2010):

   1.  2009  –  Peyton Manning  (IND)  –  82.3
   2.  2008  –  Peyton Manning  (IND)  –  79.7
   3.  2009  –  Drew Brees  (NO)  –  77.2
   4.  2010  –  Tom Brady  (NE)  –  76.0
   5.  2008  –  Matt Ryan  (ATL)  –  72.6
   6.  2008  –  Chad Pennington  (MIA)  –  72.3
   7.  2009  –  Philip Rivers  (SD)  –  71.8
   8.  2008  –  Jay Cutler  (DEN)  –  71.3
   9.  2009  –  Matt Schaub  (HOU)  –  71.0
 10.  2009  –  Aaron Rogers  (GB)  –  69.7

No surprise that Peyton Manning has the top two — in fact, his 2011 Total QBR is #11.  What is a surprise — Tom Brady is only on the Top 10 list once along with Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, and Matt Schaub.  I think it is no surprise to PhinPhanatics that the 2008 performance of Chad Pennington is #6.

So, where is the performance of Chad Henne and the Total QBR?

   52.  2009  –  Chad Henne  (MIA)  –  51.1 
   77.  2010  –  Chad Henne  (MIA)  –  41.4

The important thing to note from Henne’s performance is the regression from 2009 to 2010 and the sub par performance in 2010 that we all know about.  The 2010 performance is largely indicative of all his sacks, interceptions, and fumbles — especially, in the fourth quarter.

Other notable ratings include:

   47.  2009  –  Carson Palmer  (CIN)  –  53.2
   48.  2009  –  Kyle Orton  (DEN)  –  52.9
   55.  2008  –  Tyler Thigpen  (KC)  –  50.8
   61.  2010  –  Ryan Fitzpatrick  (BUF)  –  48.7
   62.  2010  –  Mark Sanchez  (NYJ)  –  47.4
   63.  2010  –  Carson Palmer  (CIN)  –  46.7
   64.  2010  –  Colt McCoy  (CLE)  –  46.6
   65.  2010  –  Kyle Orton  (DEN)  –  46.6

So, we now have a different QB rating to look at.  ESPN plans to highlight this in their stats.  I think it is good because the max rating is 100, rather than some max esoteric number that hardly anyone understands.  Also, I think it is good because the Total QBR takes into account when negative plays (sacks, interception, fumbles) take place.

What do you think?


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Tags: Chad Henne ESPN Miami Dolphins NFL Total QB Rating Total QBR Total Quarterback Rating

  • ranadicus

    The new ESPN rating is as big a load of crap as the passer rating stat is. They are all highly subjective and dependant on other players and coaches doing their jobs, as well as the opinion of the reviewer with regard to what = an important play.

  • Corners

    Um, i could understand passer rating before. The thing that made things confusing was how its different from college to pros.Now you want us to account for dividing credit and clutch index, numbers we now have to take espns word for as most fans wouldn’t have the slightest clue how to figure them out without reversing espns numbers, if at all.

  • MiamiChris

    Of course a QB rating is subjective – it’s a team sport so that’s always gonna be taken into account but it’s a good indicator of the way the most important guy on the team plays that week. I like ESPN’s system better because I def think a 40 yd pass in a tie game in the 4th qtr should count more than a 5 yd check down ran for another 35 yds in the 1st qtr.

  • GeneHauze

    The ESPN Total QBR is based on statistics — they don’t watch every play and make a subjective judgement of the importance and the performance of the QB. The weighting system in the rating is what is subjective. But, then again, the weighting system in the old QB rating system was also subjective. I like the fact that the new weighting system accounts for fumbles and a better handling of sacks. I also like the fact that it does not penalize the QB for an interception on a “hail mary” pass at the end of the first half. Marino noted how much he hated that.

  • ranadicus

    @MiamiChris

    The trouble with this is it doesn’t take receivers and systems into account that do this on purpose. Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin are two guys I can think of who are better than the catch and run than they are at going down field. That the teams plans around this shouldn’t reflect on the QB

  • fins4ever

    I like the idea of trying to “invent” a methodology as an effort to measure effectiveness; in this case the QB. However, I simply don’t think it is possible. The best thing you can hope for trying to measure “individual” ratings in a “team” sport is flawed at best.

    IMO, the biggest measurement of how good or effective a QB is, is his TD to interception ratio. Perhaps even better would be a completion vs interception ratio. Just a thought..

    Oh, by the way, you might be interested in a good book. I paid 2x as much for my copy.

    http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1312747097&sr=1-1

  • MiamiChris

    @ranadicus But the 40 yd completion requires more ability than a 5 yd dump off ran for the extra yardage and that should be reflected

  • ranadicus

    @MiamiChris

    Just because it isn’t called for doesn’t mean a QB isn’t capable of doing it. Again, we’re trying to diagnose how good a QB is, not how good their numbers are. This is why EPSN’s new system is still subjective and flawed.

  • MiamiChris

    @ranadicus What? that first sentence is ridiculous. How good their numbers are is a pretty good diagnosis of how good a QB is. It’s not about the play calling, it’s about how the QB helped the team to win or lose, which again, is why the 40 yd completion should be more important than the dump off. Check and mate.

  • ranadicus

    @MiamiChrisSeriously? Check and mate? Dante Culpepper used to throw a lot of 40 yard passes through the air while Joe Montana would routinely dump the ball off for a 40 catch and run. Which one has four rings?