Odds Of Landing A Starting Quarterback

After flipping from Tannehill to Cousins to Weeden then back to Tannehill, I was starting to get a headache. Instead of putting myself through my own personal QB tilt a whirl, I started looking through past drafts and the odds of drafting a good QB and in what place they were drafted.

January 28, 2012; Mobile, AL, USA; North Squad quarterback Kirk Cousins (8)of Michigan State makes a throw during the Senior Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-US PRESSWIRE

For this formula, I looked at the last ten drafts, compared those that were drafted to the amount that turned out being good players, and what QB position they were drafted at.

1 Point – Absolute starters (Those players on the Saints hit list)

½ Points – Players that have had a few good years and their team was satisfied with what they accomplished or made the pro bowl.

The odds of landing a good quarterback:

1st Picked – 7.5/10 = 75%

2nd Picked – 5/10 = 50%

3rd Picked – 3.5/10 = 35%

4th Picked – 0/10 = 0%

5th Picked – 3/10 = 30%

6th Picked – 0/10 = 0%

Hidden Gem – 3/76 = 4%

By this chart we can look at this year’s quarterback class and see the chances of them becoming something good.

75% – Andrew Luck

50% – Robert Griffin III

35% – Ryan Tannehill

0% – Brandon Weeden

30% – Kirk Cousins

0% – Brock Osweller

4% – Hidden Gem (Probably Foles or Keenum)

That number 5 spot has seemed to be a nice spot to be. If it hasn’t produced a star it has normally produced a nice backup. By this formula, it looks like the Dolphins should take Tannenhill at 8 or wait until Cousins opens up. Either way I think fans will be happy.