After flipping from Tannehill to Cousins to Weeden then back to Tannehill, I was starting to get a headache. Instead of putting myself through my own personal QB tilt a whirl, I started looking through past drafts and the odds of drafting a good QB and in what place they were drafted.
For this formula, I looked at the last ten drafts, compared those that were drafted to the amount that turned out being good players, and what QB position they were drafted at.
1 Point – Absolute starters (Those players on the Saints hit list)
½ Points – Players that have had a few good years and their team was satisfied with what they accomplished or made the pro bowl.
The odds of landing a good quarterback:
1st Picked – 7.5/10 = 75%
2nd Picked – 5/10 = 50%
3rd Picked – 3.5/10 = 35%
4th Picked – 0/10 = 0%
5th Picked – 3/10 = 30%
6th Picked – 0/10 = 0%
Hidden Gem – 3/76 = 4%
By this chart we can look at this year’s quarterback class and see the chances of them becoming something good.
75% – Andrew Luck
50% – Robert Griffin III
35% – Ryan Tannehill
0% – Brandon Weeden
30% – Kirk Cousins
0% – Brock Osweller
4% – Hidden Gem (Probably Foles or Keenum)
That number 5 spot has seemed to be a nice spot to be. If it hasn’t produced a star it has normally produced a nice backup. By this formula, it looks like the Dolphins should take Tannenhill at 8 or wait until Cousins opens up. Either way I think fans will be happy.