Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins' First Pick Will Depend On Scenario


Because of the depth and available talent in this year’s NFL Draft, it has been one of the hardest drafts to predict (as if they aren’t all extremely difficult).  Analysts both professional and amateur (like me, though keeping my fingers crossed) have listed numerous options for the first round possibilities of all 32 NFL teams.  One of the teams who has been predetermined to draft a certain position in the first round is the Miami Dolphins, whose abysmal O-Line last year has analysts penciling in an Offensive Tackle for the ‘Fins at 19 overall.   While I think that is very likely and a high possibility, I think who Miami chooses with their first selection depends greatly on the scenario come draft day.  Let’s take a look at the possible scenarios the Dolphins could face.

1. Zack Martin, OL Notre Dame, IS available:  If Martin is there when the Dolphins pick 19th overall, I simply don’t see them passing up on him.  He is considered the last first round talent of the tackles behind Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan.  He started 52 games in college and would fill the glaring hole Miami has at the right tackle spot.  Furthermore, Martin is versatile enough to play Guard if need be, and his value is much too high for the ‘Phins to pass on him if he is available at 19.

2. Zack Martin (and any other first round tackle talent) is NOT available:  While most scouts believe Martin will be there for the pickings at 19, some don’t.  Given his value and the consistent need of linemen in the NFL, I very well could see Martin going higher.  If that is the case come early May, here are Miami’s options as I see them.

Option 1:  Reach for a 2nd round tackle talent at 19.  This move, in my opinion, would be INCREDIBLY stupid by Miami.  If Martin is not there, I would much rather see Miami address another need (see below) than reach for a guy like Morgan Moses or Cyrus Kouandijo in the first round.  While these guys should do well in the NFL, they are by no means worth risking a first round pick, especially not with Miami’s other needs and the depth of the draft.

Option 2:  Trading down and adding pick(s):  If Martin is not available, this would be a fantastic alternative to option 1.  I believe the winners of this draft will be those who can convince other teams to trade up and give up picks.  This draft is absolutely bursting with talent in almost every round and at almost every position, so even one or two additional picks would do wonders.  If the Dolphins can trade down, they could add a pick or two and pick up two linemen (or any other position), for the price of one.  Smart drafting teams often have the best records, it isn’t rocket science.

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Option 3:  Stay at 19, and fill another need:  If the Dolphins can’t find another team to trade down with, they should stay at 19 and fill another need.  I am in love with (and so is fellow staff writer Tyler McMullen) Alabama’s ILB C.J. Mosley.  The guy reminds me of a more physical Zach Thomas.  He covers the field using both speed and instincts, and is physical enough to stop the run and cover TE’s in the passing game.  Mosley would also make a lot of sense for Miami, who struggled stopping the run last year (especially in the second level, i.e. the LB’s job!).  Mosley would not be a reach at 19, and could come in and challenge a seemingly weak LB core that Miami spent a lot of money on last FA.  If Miami wanted to stay offensive with this pick, they could also draft a Guard at 19.

As you can see, it is a nightmare trying to project what team will draft what player and when.  That is both the frustrating and fun part of the NFL Draft.  I hope the Miami Dolphins, led by new GM Dennis Hickey, use this talent-studded draft as an opportunity not only to fix their weakest spots on the roster, but to also add competition to those already proven positions.  The Dolphins are VERY close to becoming a consistent playoff team.  I believe the answers to Miami’s recent struggles are in this draft.

It is just a matter of finding them.

FINS UP!

 

 

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Tags: 2014 NFL Draft C.J. Mosley Miami Dolphins

  • Patrick Keegan

    The more I think about it, the more I think drafting a first round Qb makes sense. Let’s draft one at least every other year till we find a Gem. Not a knock on Tannehill, just that lets say he doesn’t show improvement from years 2 to 3. An 81% completion rating will not get us to the Big Game.
    I know our line was bad , but I know it will be improved over last year simply by the coaches that were brought in. Benton is a guy that I have faith in . He knows how to coach a zone system.

    • David Thompson

      No it doesn’t. We were one game out of the play offs last year and the reason was sacks, inability to run the ball and inability to stop the run. A QB does nothing to help any of those problems. You want to draft competition for Tannehill every year I’m fine with that, but you don’t do it in the first 3 rounds, those are players that need to come in and start.

    • David Thompson

      Tannehill is our franchise QB, he proved it last year. PFF ranking #6. QBR Passing Component #8 (65.1), QBR Sack Component # 39 (-36.1) . And he didn’t look remotely rattled taking 58 sacks and he was clutch in the red-zone and lead 4, 4th quarter comebacks. What more do you want from him? It was the line, the running backs and Sherman who failed.

      • Steve Cruickshank

        How about a kill? The last two games of the season, especially the Jets game were on him. The elite QBs make everyone else around them better. Does Tannehill do that yet? Quit settling. Until he starts winning games for us, I’m not convinced. He is a 3rd tier QB right now. Does he have the tools? Sure. If he learned to throw down the field he’d probably be a stud right now, he had Wallace deep on at least 15 opportunities for TDs last season. Time will tell.

        • Eric Roddy

          Steve, allow me to weigh in. The last two games were by no means Tannehill’s fault. No player, across the field, looked like they wanted to play in those games. Buffalo had arguably the AFC’s best pass rushing attack, so what did Sherman do? Keep Tannehill in the pocket on repeated 5-7 step drops, and he got demolished. Also, Sherman ran the same running play (either off tackle right or inside left) ALMOST EVERY SINGLE TIME. It was more on Sherman and the team’s lack of desire as a whole, than Tannehill. Give him time. As for the deep ball, that is something HE needs to learn!

        • David Thompson

          ” Quit settling” Ok Omar. Wallace also dropped 11 of those TDs and I didn’t see him fight for a single ball or come back to one for that matter. You don’t have to be convinced but you should look at stats and other relevant information rather than reciting what that douche spits out.

        • LostSok

          I think there’s little doubt that the last two games Tannehill was just hamburger. He didn’t complain. He didn’t blame anyone. He stood in and got KILLED for 14 games. By the time we hit those last two, he was a walking bruise.

      • Patrick Keegan

        Do you honestly think those 60 sacks had nothing to do with Tannehill ? Cmon. Believe me I am a fan just like you, but lets not think that pushing our qb wouldnt do him any good. Competition is a good thing.
        With these rules now that are in play, lets be honest, they favor qbs. If our guy cant complete throws when it counts then maybe he isnt the guy we need. Thats all im sayin.
        Tannehills the most exciting qb we have had in the last 8 to 10 yrs but thats not sayin much.

        • David Thompson

          you would need to find 10 (which you can) that if eliminated would bring him down to the 2nd most sacked QB in the game. you would need to find 20 (which you can’t) to get him out of the top 10. That’s on the line. Your right Dolphins fans definitely haven’t had anything to get excited about at QB since, well ’84 but lets be honest 60 sacks is still 60 sacks. And he completed plenty of throws when it counted, 4 game winning drives and 2 more that should’ve been if our kicker hadn’t missed. I’d bet we scored more points in the last 2 mins of each half than we did the other 56 mins of the game. Now that’s ridiculous but the kid can make throws under pressure

        • LostSok

          Sorry, Pat. Those 60 sacks had little to do with Tannehill. There were times he didn’t even set up from a three step drop and someone was on him. It was brutal. Frankly, he doesn’t get enough credit for how well he stood up to that kind of a pounding. Remember what that did to David Carr?

          On the flipside, his down-field accuracy issues were legitimate. The lack of time on a lot of plays factored, but even with more than enough time his passes we just WAY off. Not enough arc, and no timing with the receivers at all. That MUST improve if he is going to reach the next level, and be a true franchise QB.

    • Miami Jules (Julian)

      I will say this… IF Bill Lazor, after becoming more familiar with Ryan Tannehill, determines, he can’t put in the kid what mother nature has left out, then, it would make sense to go for a QB in my ever so humble opinion. How do we know what Lazor is thinking?

  • David Thompson

    If we were to package our 19 and 2015 1st to move to 13 could we get another pick out of St. Louis? I’m not really sure how future picks are valued vs. current? Any thoughts on the move, pretty much guarantees us our choice not left-overs and if we could get another pick in this draft. Ideally next years pick will be in the 20′s or lower in a depleted draft class, I’m all in this year, so much talent at every position. MORE PICKS!!!

    • Eric Roddy

      David, you definitely don’t want to move UP in this year’s draft, because that means losing a pick. No team should allow another team to move up if it means they don’t get compensation (i.e. a pick) THIS YEAR. Miami either needs to trade down or stay at 19! Thanks for reading, and I am all in for MORE PICKS!

      • Miami Jules (Julian)

        I agree … deep draft, so we need more picks to reach its depth (sounds almost poetic doesn’t it)

    • LostSok

      If Matthews or Robinson somehow slid to the 8-12 range and we moved up…that could be a “value move.” They are elite. I’m not sold Lewan or Martin are on that level. Lewan for the off-field stuff. He’s got an ugly side, and his “I was just a bystander” thing…heard it before.

      Moving down makes more sense, though. Or staying put if a true blue-chipper slides.

      You move up in crap years. We should have moved up instead of taking Eddie Whateverthehellhisname was in 2002 or 03. That nobody linebacker we took in the 2nd (our first pick). THAT kind of thin draft…move up as far as you can get.

      Eddie Moore? Jesus…he was so awful I honestly can’t remember.

  • Johnny

    I agree with everything you wrote.. Hopefully T/G Zach Martun is there.. If not, I would love the ILB CJ Mosley pick better then trading back.. (Unless we can trade back and STILL land Mosley.. That would be the most ideal situation)… Even if we don’t trade back and pick Mosley.. I still think we can land a starting-caliber RT in the 2nd round.. In that case the most ideal situation would be:: rnd1:: ILB Mosley rnd2:: T Moses…
    (That would be sweat!!!)

    • David Thompson

      The more I look at the tackles the less I want one in the early rounds. Looking at it the top 15, all the way down to Sentreal Henderson with a 5th round grade, could come in and start at RT.

      • Miami Jules (Julian)

        Please for the love of Romeo, not Seantrel… he’s got stud potential, but I think this young man may have an issue with the munchies… showed up to his pro day a bit heavier, and suffered a case of dehydration in April… mind you, it is South Florida’s version of April, but I live in South Florida, I’m waaaayyyy older than Seantrel and have some health issues but I worked out on that day, outdoors, and I was fine. No, it wasn’t a football pro-day type of work out that Idi d, but considering my age and health and work out intensity (ran distance, burpees, hit the bag, weights, and pull ups), Mr. Henderson should’ve been able to complete it his w/o. I used to have Henderson in the 7th round but not anymore.

        • LostSok

          After his hideous pro day, it’s unlikely we or anyone else jumps on Seantrel. He comes across as JaMarcus Russell 2.0. Wouldn’t be a shock if he’s there on day 3.

          • Miami Jules (Julian)

            Yes! Even if his early exit had to do with dehydration… why was he overweight? The munchies? He doesn’t care enough about the pro’s to put it down for at least 6 months out the year? Why did he not think about Gatorade? He played his entire college career in Coral Gables (MIami) how is it that he forgot about hydration? If it was due to a stomach virus, then I beg for forgiveness but other than that, there’s no other reason I can think of as an explanation for his performance.

      • Miami Jules (Julian)

        PS I am with you 100% on looking at OT’s and OG’s in latter rounds, James, Mewhort, Turner, Britonio, Yankey, and even Hurst are among these I’d consider.

    • Eric Roddy

      Exactly, you get it Johnny! Kudos! Let’s hope Martin is there haha

      • Johnny

        You know it… Just imagine if we get T/G Martin in the 1st and T Moses in the 2nd??? Let them fight it out for the RT position.. Loser plays guard.. Or.. Just start Martin at Guard day 1 and if Moses struggles, Martin can slide over to RT.. Eitherway if both are available, can’t pass on them.. Martin in 1st is possible, but Moses in the 2nd, pick 50 is alittle but if a stretch… But if we can get them both??? That’s the best case scenario..

        • Johnny

          But.. CJ Mosley would be a nice consolation prize if Martin doesn’t make it to 19… I can live with that also.. And get the best T on the board with our 2nd round pick..

        • LostSok

          Martin/Moses would be sweet for obvious reasons, but getting impact somewhere else while rebuilding the line would be sweeter.

          I’d love those guys are picks 1 and 2 if we DID move down and had more picks in the 3rd/4th.

          Still a little iffy on Martin, though. The grades are there. His film looks fine. Not sure why I’m squishy, to be perfectly honest.

  • Miami Jules (Julian)

    I-don’t-like-Martin! (add stubborn/childish tone), I EMPHATICALLY agree with you in that going for a borderline 2nd rounder like Moses or Kouandjio would be… hmmm… I don’t want to be harsh and offend anyone one so I wont say stupid, so I’ll say moronic… there! That brings us to either a Mosley, an Evans or a Pryor (as in Calvin)… interesting, especially since there’s beaucoup talent at OT/OG in the 2nd, 3rd and even 4th. There is the option to trade down (it’s what I have been calling for as my marginal preference). Say we trade completely out of the 1st… would we then get an extra 2nd rounder and an extra 3rd rounder or would we instead be getting an additional 2nd rounder as well as an additional 4th or maybe 5th rounder? If it’d be a an additional 2nd and 3rd, I’d go for that option in a heartbeat, if it was a 2nd and 4th, I’d probably still go for it but I’d be more skeptical and hesitant to do so, and anything later, I’d just go for either Mosley or Pryor at 19. Did I say I don’t like Zach Martin? I know I am in the minority but it’s my opinion.

    • LostSok

      I’ve seen most the “experts” lately projecting Evans as rising, probably well into the top 10. BUT…in a deep, deep WR draft, I think it’s very possible that teams simply decide–collectively–to take a WR in a later round…and he slides into the late teens.

      I almost said that in a reply above, then erased it, because I figured Id get flamed. So I’m glad you mentioned him, because there is a reasonable scenario he comes close to #19 at least.

  • Miami Jules (Julian)

    I kept reading the comments on here and the topic went from draft scenarios to Ryan Tannehill. I will offer my 2 pennies worth. I can not even start rating Tannehill’s future or talent until he’s not being evaluated while on his back or while turning around from a 7 step drop to already have to make a decision to either hold on for half a second and hope someone gets opened in that time, or just throw the ball out bounds and lose the down but not the yards. I just did an analysis of that situation on another site and even on those plays in which RT held on to the ball for more than 3.1 seconds, there was already a collapsed pocket with his interior protection being driven back into Tannehill’s face which probably impaired Tannehill’s ability to see beyond the back of Pouncey’s helmet, much less go through his progressions. You need to fix the O-line and then let’s take a look at RT.

    • Eric Roddy

      amen! you just reiterated my exact thoughts jules haha

  • LostSok

    Really solid overview! I utterly agree, although I can’t say I’m in love with Zach Martin. If he’s there at #19, I believe we’ll take him. And I’ll sigh deeply…and nod. It’s not an exciting pick, but the grades are clear. That said, one scenario I most fear is we’ll trade UP for Lewan or Martin. I just don’t think either are worth it, considering we’ll be playing them on the right side for a year. I’d rather move down for Morgan/Kouandjio (assuming there’s an opportunity).

    Otherwise, I think you’re dead on. Mosley would be a dream at #19, but there’s a few other names there…and one of them could be a shocker if teams they project to pull a Ted Ginn-like over-reach. If a Ha Ha Clinton-Dix or Eric Ebron are there…stay put. In that scenario we could draft someone like Antonio Richardson or Joel Bitiano…and sign McKinney to a one-year deal.

    Again…my one big fear is that Ross pushes Hinkley to move up for Lewan. Yes, he’s worth a first. But in a deep draft he’s not worth a 1st and 2nd (if not more), IMO.

    Nice post. More accurate and reasoned than many professional ones.

    • Miami Jules (Julian)

      Lost, I agree with your comment in so many ways, I’ll just mention a couple of them. I also have some concerns about martin, and while we can see he’s done great at the SR Bowl and Combine, he was still either going against other college talent or against the stop watch… I’m sure he’s great as a guard, I’m just afraid he wont be as good at the pro level or may eventually wear down with constant pounding against bigger opponent. I am also with you on liking Lewan but not enough to trade up and give up draft picks.