So You Are Telling Me There Is A Chance

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So you are telling me there is a chance

Everyone can remember this famous catch line from the epic movie Dumb and Dumber,  but realistically for Dolphin fans it might make us tear up rather than smile.

The Dolphins playoff picture is bleak.  It’s like asking a goat in Africa not to sweat, but anything can happen on any given Sunday.   According to the ESPN Playoff Machine the following would need to happen for the Dolphins to get an invite to the dance.

How much help do the Dolphins need to make the playoffs?
TeamCurrent recordWhat needs to happen?
San Diego Chargers8-6Lose final 2 games
Baltimore Ravens9-5Lose final 2 games
Pittsburgh Steelers9-5Lose final 2 games
Houston Texans7-7Win Week 16, lose Week 17
Buffalo Bills8-6Lose 1 of final 2 games

Source: ESPN playoff machine

What is needed:

  • Miami
    • First things first, Miami has to win its next two games. The Vikings are playing hard, but the heat of south beach might be a problem. I like the W this week and hope that translate to following week as well against the Jets.
    • ODDS – 75% Miami Wins out
  • San Diego Chargers
    • The Chargers have a tough match up against the 49ers in San Fran. Coming off an emotional lost to the Broncos, I can see them losing this game.  The Chargers end the season against the Cheifs, in KC.  Hot weather teams do not play well in the cold. The odds are in the Dolphins favour
    • ODDS – 85% Chargers lose out
  • Baltimore Ravens
    • The Ravens have the easiest schedule of all remaining teams, but honestly that doesn’t really mean much. How many people thought the Bills would beat the Packers last week? The Texans are playing great D, but have no answer at QB (I’m getting a case of déjà vu here). If the Texans commit to running Foster, they could easily escape here with the W.  Week 17 is the concern….Playing at home against Cleveland, Cash money might show everyone why he was a first round pick, but my money isn’t on it
    • ODDS – 40% Ravens lose out
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
    • Steelers have a tough schedule remaining against two other teams in the AFC playoff race. In Week 16 they play Kansas City.  Steelers need to shore up their leaky run D as Jamal Charles comes into town.  In week 17, the Bengals come into town, the only issue here is if the Bengals clinch their playoff spot, why would they play their starters which would make it easier for the Steelers to get the W.
    • ODDS – 50 % Steeler to lose out
  • Houston Texans
    • The Dolphins will have a love hate relationship with the Texans. They need them to beat the Ravens in week 16, and then lose to the Jags in week 17.  All of this will depend on how effective Savage will be at QB
    • ODDS – 35% to win week 16 and lose Week 17
  • Buffalo Bills
    • The Bills play Oakland in week 16, so that should be a cake way. They close the season against the Patriots in New England, which is an interesting experience, just ask Joe Philbin.  The bad news in all of this, the Pats could rest everyone by week 17 as well.
    • ODDS – 45% to lose 1 of final 2 game

The odds are stacked against the Miami Dolphins and more importantly Joe Philbin.  The Dolphins had a chance to control their destiny, however, they were not up to the challenge and when the dust settled are left with the “woulda, coulda, shoulda” game.  But, realistically all Dolphins fans care about is that small chance…