Choosing to play his starting offensive players into the 2nd quarter may have proven a huge mistake when LT Jake Long went down with what appears to be a knee injury.

Long walked off the field on his own but was seen sporting an ice bag on the bench. It’s likely the team will take an X-ray at halftime.

Most teams do not play their starters more than 1 series in the 4th game, Dallas didn’t play any of their starters. The result? Aside from Jake’s injury, the Dolphins offense looked just as anemic as they did last week and their defense has only looked somewhat better.

All in all, the Dolphins have a ton of work to do in the next week and half before they travel up north to start the season in Buffalo.

Vanilla or not, the Dolphins have some serious things they need to work on. For now though, the chief concern is on Jake Long’s knee.

Is the Buffalo Bills game a must win game for the Miami Dolphins?

While I doubt many of you will open your minds to the prospect of any game in the first half of the season being that important, I can’t help but amuse myself by asking that question.

In some ways, yes.  Yes it is.

The Miami Dolphins thought they found an identity two years ago when they ran the Wild Cat to perfection as the manhandled their way into the playoffs.  Last year, the WC lost much of it’s surprise and the Phins fell short of their playoff goal.  Now, year 3 of the Bill Parcells, Jeff Ireland, and Tony Sparano is up on us and the team no longer has an identity.  In fact, it has possibly more questions surrounding it.

Consider year one for a quick second.  No one was safe, roster turnover was huge and no one was surprised.  It was a must.  Last year’s off-season brought much of the same.  This year, not so much.  At least not outside of Karlos Dansby and Brandon Marshall.  But neither player brings an identity that reshapes the team on either side of the ball.  The power running game is in flux with the depth issues on the Oline and the defense is a youth movement.  So there are a lot of questions on both sides.

In both seasons past, the Dolphins lost their opening 3 games.  Rebounded in year one to win the division.  That was behind the surprise success of the WC.  Last year they rebounded a tad too late and faltered in the end and missed the dance.  Can “THIS” team afford that same opening issues?  I don’t think so.

The Phins open on the road at Buffalo and a loss would hardly put their season in doubt, however, they travel from Buffalo to Minnesota for week 2 before coming home to face division rivals New York and New England.

In other words, the easiest game on the opening schedule is the Bills.  Following the first 4 games the Dolphins have their bye week.  When they return, they face Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincy, and Tennessee.  One of the toughest opening schedules in the NFL.  Has these Miami Dolphins shown you enough to believe they are hands down the favorite to win all of those games?  Not even close.

That is the kind of schedule that can get your head coach fired mid-season.  Following that horrid test, they get a run against the Bears, Raiders, and Browns before getting a second helping of the Jets, Bills, and Patriots.  With the Lions between the last two division games.  In other words, no hiccups along the way.

Momentum is something that is preached at all levels of football.  Hell it’s preached at all levels of sports.  Opening the season with a win builds confidence and starts that all important momentum.  The Dolphins have not won in Buffalo in 5 seasons.  And to a degree, they almost must beat them to open the season.

It’s easy to be a homer and say that the Dolphins “can” beat this team and “can” beat that team but reality is a different world.  The Dolphins “CAN” beat anyone.  So can the Lions, Browns, and Raiders.  As they say, “Any given Sunday”.  But “any given Sunday” is used to describe teams that really shouldn’t be winning games.  No one says that when referring to the Colts, Patriots, or Saints.  Will they be saying it about the Dolphins?

The truth is that these Miami Dolphins can’t afford to lose the first game of the season.  It is that important.  Getting the season off to a good start, even if sloppy, puts the team on the right path.  It gives them confidence the following week to face Brett “I don’t have any receivers and I should have stayed retired” Favre.  It gives them confidence to come home and open their stadium for the 2010 season with their orange jerseys and knock of the Jets.  It gives them confidence to take on the Patriots at home.  In other words, a win at Buffalo could give the team what it needs to beat the Vikings.  A win against the Vikings and there is momentum to take the home stand.

A loss at Buffalo and they will start looking at last year and the year before.  A “here we go again” with 3 in a row to start the season.  But looking at this year first 8 games, I’m not so sure that an 0-3 start is going to be something this team can recover from.

And that is why I think, maybe, just maybe, the Buffalo game has a little more importance to the start of the season than just an opening day win.

We saw this first hand in the Wanny Era;  Wanny was trying so hard to mimic the Ravens Super bowl run – have an amazing defence, and solid run game.  Pay no attention to anything else.  We weren’t the only team that tried to mimic this formula either, Carolina, Washington, Chicago are other teams that tried to copycat the success of the Ravens.

So what is the latest trend…switching to the 3-4 defence.

Why?

We have a noticed a growing trend in the NFL the past few seasons.  No longer are we seeing the run first offences.  There is a new era in the NFL – the passing era.

Just look at the stats from last year:

 A record 12 quarterbacks threw at least 25 touchdown passes.

 A record 10 men surpassed 4,000 yards.

 A record five topped a 100 passer rating.
Figures extracted from NFL.Com

 More and more teams are starting to focus on fine tuning their offence, in order to optimize their talents into points for. 

The 3-4 Defence allows more playmakers to be on the field.  Best advantage of the 3-4 defence – you cover 9 gaps with 7 players.

But where is the loop whole? How can you expose this style of defence that more and more teams are starting to implement?

We saw one way unleashed two years ago – the Wildcat.  This is where the “evil empire” aka Patriots admitted that they were literally out coached.

But, there is another factor that a few teams are starting to focus on – which is the Hybrid Tight End.

Two NFL players that fit under this criteria – Vernon Davis, and Jermichael Finley.

Finley

Extracted from NFL.COM/STATS

Davis

Extracted from NFL.COM/STATS

Just looking at the above data, the most glaring difference is the “Yds.”

Finley – 2008 vs. 2009 (74 vs. 676) – that’s a percentage difference of 89% (-and he played more games in 2008)

Davis – 2008 vs. 2009 (965 vs. 358) – that’s a percentage difference of 70%

As you can see, numbers don’t lie.

So what is going on here…how are these types of players exposing defences?

Let’s go inside the 3-4 defence.

Specifically we are going to focus on the match ups for TE – let’s put the spotlight on Green Bay’s offence.

The Packers love running a weak I lead, One Motion counter left (1 RB, 1TE, 2 WR, 1 FB RUN) 1^st and 10 Sidebar – the difference between a weak I and a double I offence formation, is that the double I the RB is lined right behind the FB. Weak I, the FB is position at a 45 degree angle ahead of the RB)

Now we are on Defence

Nolan calls – his base 3-4

Man to man match up all the way – but remember the offence call – there is a motion (-which means Bell can creep up, remember from my last post)

Pre-draft motion – Finley moves from left to right – play is set and the ball is hiked.  Green Bay gains a 3-4 yrds.

What the OC is trying to do, is show this formation to the defence.  Now the OC, will now start calling this formation again and again throughout the game.  What he is trying to do, is show the run, and then do a play action. OR, show the offence set and instead of running it, throw a pass from it.

Basically, trying to bait the defence.

Let’s break the bait down.

Offence calls – right after calling
weak I lead, One Motion counter left (1 RB, 1TE, 2 WR, 1 FB RUN) 1^st and 10

Revert (- which means same formation, but flipped meaning right to left) weak I lead, One Motion PA zig fly left (1 RB, 1TE, 2 WR, 1 FB Pass) 2^nd and 7

Nolan see the offence set, and thinks, well they love this play, and they are going to be running the same play, but to other side.  Call’s a blitz.

Tiger Mike 3-4, cover umbrella

Once again we are going to see the TE motion…..

Defence see’s this, and thinks same play…let’s get them.  Mike and  Tiger (-mean Dansby and Dobbins will be blitzing, B and C gaps) Umbrella means that the secondary will be creating an umbrella in the backfield – think zone defence)

Aaron Rodgers hikes the ball, play action to Grant (-this bites not only the LB Danbsy and Dobbins to blitz harder, but also baits the secondary, which give Finely free cover)

Rodgers rolls to the left, see’s the zone, Finely is free, 10yrd completion and whatever YAC he gets.

Please understand that this is just one example, and there are many other “scenarios” to take into consideration.   But, I am seeing an increase in repetition on formations.  This is baiting 101.  The OC is trying to play mind games, so he can use his new hybrid TE to expose the 3-4 defence.

The main reason why this works against a 3-4 defence, is because of the “4.”  This means 4 LB’s.  Pop quiz name three LB’s that can keep up with Vernon Davis or J Finley?

Against a 4-3 Defence – you can switch and have a CB or FS cover the TE – so at least secondary can keep up with TE for break routes. 

We have to pay attention to the offence calls, and having Nolan an experience DC, will only benefit us, but we have to watch the bait, or it will be our defence that will be walking that tightrope.