Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Kevin Williams (93) and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) talk after the game at the Metrodome. The Vikings win 37-34. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

As I said in my last post: Welcome to Playoff football. The time of year where upsets make history and true champions show their colors.

Minnesota @ Green Bay:

Didn’t we just see this game? This past weekend most of the country watched the Packers at the Vikings to see if Adrian Peterson could accomplish what no running back has been able to do since Eric Dickerson. Sadly, we did not get to see a new record, but in the process we did get to see a great game.

Minnesota was also playing for the chance to be in the playoffs. This game had a lot riding on it for the Vikings. Whether or not he is chasing a record doesn’t necessarily change the Vikings game plan. Let’s not pretend they are a pass first team with Christian Ponder taking the snaps. We all know what is coming before the Vikings snap the ball, and you know what this means for a defense? NOTHING because they still can’t stop Peterson.

Green Bay does not look like a team that almost went undefeated last season. Much like the Ravens, they have had some serious injury issues. Jordy Nelson has been consistently injured for the latter part of the season and Greg Jennings is only just now coming back into the Packers stride. What makes the Pack different this season is their defense. They finally have a chance to win a game without scoring 50 points. Clay Matthews is a beast end of story, A.J. Hawk has had another great season, and as a team they are playing well.

After watching this past weekend we should already know what the game should look like. Except for that one minor detail of….ya know playing at Lambeau which can cause any team to lose in January. Game time temperature looks to only be about 20* but somehow it is always colder there. Minnesota should be comfortable with cold weather but the atmosphere in general can be intimidating. Green Bay has a secret weapon who is not named Rogers, and that is Randall Cobb. He wasn’t supposed to be much of an impact until next season but he has been awesome so far. A go to receiver each time Aaron Rogers needs an open man, and also elusive on returns.

If the Packers somehow manage to control Peterson then the game is over. Minnesota cannot win without another great AP game. Conversely if the Vikings can stop Aaron Rogers from throwing all over them then they might be able to pull out the win. The Vikings may have shown all they have to give last weekend and the Packers may have been holding back.

Seattle @ Washington:

Ok let’s pretend it is August 2012 and we are all amped up to start the season. Now I tell you that the most interesting game on Wild Card weekend will be Seattle & Washington…Commence laughter. Alright back to reality, this game should be awesome. 2 rookie quarterbacks, 1 the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner and top two pick, and the other a QB taken in the 3rd round (which people thought was way too early) to ride the bench behind Matt Flynn.

Seattle started the season modestly and were never considered a bad team. They also weren’t a very good team. Flynn never got the chance to start and Russell Wilson could win but not score much more than 20. Now that we’ve seen a full season they are possibly the scariest Wild Card team ever. Wilson can run and throw like a #1 pick and could get some serious consideration for ROY, Marshawn Lynch is still an elite back finishing with almost 1600yds and 11 touchdowns, and the Seahawks defense is just plain tough.

Washington has who most people believe is the best rookie this season. Robert Griffin III is as versatile a rookie as the NFL has probably ever seen. Most compare him to Michael Vick the only difference being that RGIII can throw. When he runs you get a little nervous because apparently no one taught him how to slide. When he doesn’t run or throw he hands off to some other rookie named Alfred Morris who finished with 1600+ yards and 13  touchdowns…Once again let me state the word ROOKIE. If RGIII does somehow get hurt they can plug in Kirk Cousins another rookie who looks plenty capable of managing important situations.

I’d love to say I know who will win this game but I just can’t guess. The Seahawks scored 150 points in 3 games which is just ridiculous and the Redskins just find ways to win. 10-6 isn’t the most impressive record ever, but playing in the NFC East is just tough. Rookies have certainly flourished this season and we get to see a bunch of them in this game. Seattle is favored by 3 at Washington which really translates into 6 points with them at home. As a whole team the Seahawks are probably more equipped to win this game, but RGIII has done just fine making good defenses look stupid.

Sep 23, 2012; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis (52) prior to the game against the New England Patriots at M

Playoff Time is here once again. Unfortunately this means Dolphins football is over, but as a football fan in general there are some great match ups ahead.

Cincinnati @ Houston:

Saturdays game between the Bengals and Texans should be a good match up, but that may be something Houston should fear.

After the Bengals loss to the Dolphins most pundits had them failing for the the rest of the season and they started to losing 2 more in a row before their bye. A.J. Green could not get open like he had in the past and Andy Dalton looked like an average quarterback. 3-4 at the bye week had the Bengals in a tough position. Whatever happened during their bye week went very right. since week 8 the Bengals are 7-2 with 1 of those losses they should have never allowed to Dallas. Dalton has thrown for 3600+ yards and Green finished with 1350 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cincinnati is back in playoff shape and ready to show it.

The Texans have taken a different approach to finish their season. A team predicted to be in the Superbowl since the preseason, are falling apart. 11-1 to start the season they were embarrassed by the Patriots in New England and seem to have never rebounded. Initially they came back with a nice win against the Colts but finished the season losing to the Vikings and Colts in poor fashion. Both of those teams are obviously playoff teams, but the Texans were supposed to be unbeatable.

Houston will take the advantage of being home because this is their last foreseeable chance to play at home after slipping to the 3 seed week 17. Right now Houston is a 4.5 point favorite which is mostly just home field advantage. If J.J Watt can interrupt Andy Dalton and anybody can slow down A.J. Green then Houston should command the game. The Bengals need to focus on Arian Foster. If they can take him out of the game Houston’s offense becomes one dimensional.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore:

Sunday afternoon’s match up is young versus old. Andrew Luck is looking to put his stamp on the NFL while Ray Lewis looks to add to his legacy before leaving it all behind.

The Colts have been a tough team to gauge throughout the season. They did a great job finishing at 11-5 after last seasons debacle, but they are a last minute team. Luck has not been statistically as great as most people believe, but he is rock solid at the end of the game. If the Colts are down late Luck can not be counted out. He always seems to find a way to pull it out. After an impressive win over Houston to finish the season Indy should have some momentum moving forward.

The Ravens have gotten very old as the season has progressed. They have also been decimated by injuries. The defense is not what it once was and most teams are moving the ball consistently easy against them. Joe Flacco is confusing when he looks like an elite QB at times and then goes quiet at others. Torrey Smith had a somewhat quiet season but is a scary deep threat.

A week ago saying this would be a fairly easy win for Indy would be understandable, but once again Ray Lewis has changed that. Love him or hate him, nobody can rev a team up the way Lewis does. If he truly plans on retiring after this season then Baltimore owes him everything in their power to win this. The Ravens are favored by 6.5 and Baltimore is a tough place to go into and win. The Ravens play well at home and are a tough physical team. The Colts have been the comeback team of the year by leaps and bounds but their Luck may have run out.

Maybe if the Dolphins go lay a few mid-week hits like these on Andy Dalton he’ll be a pal and lose the next two games… Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat; the Miami Dolphins are not a playoff caliber team.  While steps are being taken in the right direction, this current incarnation has no business being in the championship tournament.  That being said, with only two weeks remaining in the season, the Dolphins playoff flame still burns and that’s more than can be said for the rival New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, so Dolphins fans will surely take what they can get.  In fact, the Dolphins have a decent chance of surviving another week and reaching Week 17 with still a faint playoff breath.

In order to survive another week, the Dolphins must gain their revenge on a slumping Bills team at home this week and hope for a Pittsburgh Steelers victory versus the Cincinnati Bengals.  With that, they would need a whole lot of pieces to fall into place in Week 17 in order to reach the promised land.  While they would certainly be massive underdogs in the playoffs, let’s face it, as fans of a team whom has struggled in recent history, any positive momentum is worth getting excited for.  And so, here is what must happen for the Dolphins to achieve a most unlikely playoff berth and the likelihood of each happening:

• First, the Dolphins must take care of their own game at home against the Bills.  With the Bills coming off a shellacking at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks, it is possible they will come out angry and determined to sweep the Fins out of the playoffs.  But it’s also just as possible that they will look the part of a bad team packing it up for the offseason.  Either way, regardless of their playoff hopes this year, step one in moving up the ladder of the NFL elite is to assert your dominance over the dregs of your division, which the Bills certainly are.  This is a game the Dolphins should win… I give this a 70% chance.
• Next, the Steelers must win their showdown with the Bengals.  While the Steelers are known for having been a mixed bag this season, the Bengals haven’t exactly been the pinnacle of consistency themselves, suffering through a 4 game losing streak earlier in the year.  The Steelers aren’t what they once were, but they are at home and do have a history of dominance over this Bengals team so they do amount to slight favorites.  I give the Steelers a 55% chance of victory.
• While the Jets have been eliminated themselves, complicated NFL tiebreaking procedures do still render them relevant to other teams’ playoff fates.  Because the Dolphins will lose a tie-breaker in division to the Jets if they both finish 8-8, in order for the Dolphins to have a chance at the playoffs, the Jets must lose again over the next two weeks.  With the San Diego Chargers coming to New York and a trip to Buffalo on the docket, the schedule is fairly forgiving.  Fortunately, however, these are the Jets we are talking about – they are atrocious.  I give them a 40% chance to beat San Diego at home and a 40% chance to win in Buffalo.  This calculates to an 84% chance to lose one of the two games as needed.
• Going to Week 17, the Bengals face their other AFC North nemesis the Baltimore Ravens.  While the Ravens too have been slumping, their dominance over the Bengals has been historic in recent years.  And with the strong possibility that they will be faced with losing the division in Week 17 if they fall to the New York Giants in Week 16, they will be motivated to avoid a first round playoff matchup with the New England Patriots.  As such, I expect the Ravens to exert their typical form on the Bengals.  I give the Bengals a 60% chance to lose this game in Cincy.
• So far, this actually seems rather possible, but this is where it gets particularly difficult – in Week 17, the Steelers host the Cleveland Browns.  The Steelers did lose to the Browns in Week 12 of this year, but that was in Cleveland with Charlie Batch at the helm, and let’s just say the Browns didn’t exactly lay the wood down on the Steelers.  The Browns would need to drastically step up their performance from the first matchup in order to get the job done.  I give the Browns only a 30% chance of delivering the victory the Dolphins would need.
• Finally, the final piece of the puzzle would come from the Dolphins themselves, who would need to go into Foxboro and defeat the Patriots in Week 17.  The good news is that with the Patriots recent loss to the San Francisco 49ers, they are likely already locked into the 3 seed.  While they aren’t known for resting their players in the final week, they are known for being highly strategic.  I realize most if not all readers are Dolphins fans, but tell me honestly, who do you think Bill Belichick would rather play in a 3/6 matchup in the first round… the Dolphins or Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers?  If it gets to this point, there’s at least a possibility Belichick has a change of heart over prior years and rests starters in this matchup, not because they need the rest, but simply because he would rather the Dolphins win so that he can face them in the first round of the playoffs.  Even still, this is a tall task for the Fins, and I give them only a 35% chance of beating the Patriots in New England.

If you do the math on all of these probabilities, it calculates out to a 2.04% chance of the Dolphins making the playoffs this year.  That’s about 1 in 50 times.  So no, it isn’t likely, but I bet 15 weeks ago you didn’t think the Dolphins would make the playoffs even 1 in 50 times, so it’s not all bad.  And hey, the Jets have a 0.00% chance of making the playoffs (but they do have a 100% chance of making fools of themselves every time they are on national TV), and that has to make everyone smile.