Fantasy Corner: Top 10 draft picks

It can sometimes be difficult to guess who the top 10 draft picks will be in any fantasy draft. The top 4 are usually rather easy. Break down a league into starting positions and it becomes a little harder.

Consider that some leagues today could employ any combination of the following, as starters. 2 QBs’, 3 or 4 Wrs’, 3 or 4 Rb’s, and even 2 TEs’. The problem with trying to figure out the best outside of the top 3 depends on your league.

The top 4 picks in any given draft have always been pretty easy. They have all been running backs. Consider that in some combination the top 4 have looked like this. L. Tomlinson, S. Alexander, L. Johnson, T. Barber. With the retirement of Barber, the off year with injuries of Alexander, and the now almost 2 week hold-out of Johnson, the sure fire top 4 has become a sure fire top pick. Of those players, only Tomlinson is a sure bet, and that is why once again, he will likely be the number 1 overall pick in about 99 percent of NFL fantasy drafts.

1: Ladainian Tomlinson – The consensus number 1 overall in fantasy football. 31 TDs last season says it all. For those worrying about the SD changes this off-season? Well, even those do not make his value drop or another players’ rise. If you have this pick, take LT or trade it.

2: Larry Johnson – This guy is a work horse. He is not an injury prone RB and although many believe that he will eventually wear down, there is good news out of KC. Priest Holmes. Holmes is back and he will not likely be able to carry the load he once did, in fact there is no way he will. He will provide Johnson with some much needed rest during a game. Johnsons’ production in terms of carries may drop a bit, but with a little rest, his yard averages could increase a little. The biggest problem with LJ is the fact that he is holding out and no one know when he will report. Or if for that matter. Keep an eye on this. If you have a late drafting league, you will have better information on his status. If you have a league that is drafting soon, you may want to consider an alternative here.

3: Shaun Alexander – He is aging quick and last year could be an indication of yearly trouble for him. His back up had more value than he did last year it seemed. Still, SA is a premier running back and with some of the offensive changes made last year, he could regain some of the stats that he had two years ago. Watch him closely in pre-season and get a feel for what he looks like out there. This is a high pick to kick yourself over later.

4: Steven Jackson – Last year, you could have had him in most leagues in round 2. The secret is out and Jackson is the man in St. Louis. Some will argue that his production doesn’t warrant this high of FF draft pick, 16 touchdowns and over 2300 yards says otherwise. Jackson is young, and so his offensive system. It is entering it’s second year under Scott Linehan. If you are picking 4 and below and SJ is here, you need to take him unless your league just doesn’t put a premium on RBs, and even then, it may not be a bad idea.

5: Willie Parker – The Pittsburgh speedster is proving that he is the real deal. Traditionally, the RB position is the weak one in fantasy leagues. There are only a handful of solo starters. Many teams are now using a dual back approach and that is starting to hurt the value of the RB in leagues. Parker is on a one back team. Mike Tomlin loves the running game and that bodes well for the little back from the state of NC. 5 may be a little high, but if your wanting a RB, you may have to reach after the 4th pick.

6: Peyton Manning – Sometimes it is hard to take a QB in the first round. Manning is the exception. You can always draft a 2nd tier QB in rounds 2 and even as late as round 5. Tom Brady is a solid QB who could put up really solid numbers this year, and even he is not a top 12 pick in most leagues. Manning is by far the best QB on the market. Getting him outside of 5 is a sure thing.

7: Frank Gore – Gore jumped out of nowhere and last year was a guy you could get in round 6. This year, he may get taken top 5. Here is the guy that could jump in front of someone like Steven Jackson. He has the build, the speed, the bulk, to continue improving. San Fransisco is a team that is starting to find itself. FG will be the featured back and if you can get him from 5 to 10 your doing well. There are some others who could swap around this group. The fact is outside of the top 3 these days, anything can happen.

8: Brian Westbrook – The only knock on Westbrook is his knee concerns. He will have to sit from time to time and will likely miss a game or two, or at minimum miss a couple of quarters. But make no mistake, when he is in, he is good. Dangerous out of the backfield both in the running game and the passing game. A number 8 pick for him is more than value.

9: Joseph Addai – There is no Edgerrin James in Indy anymore. There was not last year either. Addai showed that he can handle the load on a team surrounded by offensive superstars. Addai became a valuable option in the Indy game plan. If there is a down side to Addai it is not his play but the retirement of Tarik Glenn. The monster lineman not only protected Manning, but opened holes for the RB. Tony Ugoh is currently working to fill those shoes.

10: Rudi Johnson – The Bengal RB has been nothing less than solid. His name seems to slip more and more but that is because he plays for a team that essentially is good but not great. Johnson gets lost behind names like Palmer and the other Johnson. Yet his stats are still very good. Johnson seems to teeter between 8, 9, and sometimes into the uppers 2nd round. He is first round talent and having him on your roster will not hurt it.

Those are the top 10. The field gets rather muddied after that. There is high 2nd round talent and there is low end 2nd talent. In a 12 team league, it still does not get easier. Lawrence Maroney, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Brady, Palmer, the list can go on. It really depends on your type of starting roster that puts you in a position to draft. If one of the above 10 are still there in round 2…ask yourself why. In fact, get online and check the injury list. One may fall, but it is very unlikely more than that will.