Week 4 – Has DC Rehabbed? No! No! No!

The only question this week is has Daunte Culpepper rehabbed enough to beat the team that cut him a short two months ago? In the words of Amy Whinehouse…NO! NO! NO!

This week the Miami Dolphins play host to the Oakland Raiders. A battle of two teams trying to return to past days of glory that have long since vanished into a pool of mediocrity.

There are 31 NFL teams aside from the Phins, of those 31 only 3 own a better head to head record against Miami, the NY Jets, the Jacksoville Jaguars, and the Oakland Raiders. 18 – 12 – 1.

Time for Miami to close that gap.

The Dolphins are 0-3 and although improvement on offense has been seen, it is the defense that has fans in an uproar. The Raider passing attack is not that good, but their running game is a lot better, and the Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in the league when it comes to stopping the run.

On Offense:

The Miami Dolphins must continue to improve to build confidence. It will not take a great game to win this, but if the Dolphins fall behind early, Cameron may throw the running game to the sideline to play catch up. The strength of the Dolphins right now…oddly enough…is the running game as it opens up the passing game. Trent Green has played well in two of the 3 weeks and he needs to play like that again this week.

Trent knows the Raiders all too well and their tendencies. He should be able to exploit their weaknesses as he has been breaking down film on them for 6 years. Chris Chambers should have another solid game as should Marty Booker. This may very well be the game that Ted Ginn gets more involved in the offense as well. His speed can wear down the Safeties and Cornerbacks of the Raiders in the S. Fla. heat.

The TE will also play a strong roll in pulling the LBs into pass coverage. If they can do that, play action pass will work well at holding the LBs’ off the line, and then that should open up the running lanes for Ronnie Brown. Ronnie Brown is key once again.

The Oline must build on its success last week and to do that, they will have to quit down the mouth of Warren Sapp. Sapp is only half of what he used to be, but his return to south Florida will likely not stay a quiet one.

The Dolphins have an opportunity on offense to exploit the weaknesses of a team that in 12 games has only managed to beat the Cleveland Browns. The Raiders give up over 127 yards on the ground per game, and over 300 through the air. This could be the team that Miami needs to get the winning feeling back into their heads.

On Defense:

The Miami defense is going to tell everyone that the game is far beyond that of the return of Daunte Culpepper. This is about stopping the only real offensive threat…Lamont Jordan. Jordan is the number 2 ranked WR for the Raiders and he will split out wide at times. He also of course leads the resurgent rushing attack of the Silver and Black.

Miami does not know Daunte Culpepper but Culpepper knows Miami. He has had plenty of time to watch them while riding his bike during rehab…there’s that song again! The question of course is did he actually pay attention.

Culpepper does not run like he used to, can not throw like he used to and basically still thinks that he can. That is Lane Kiffins job. He needs to get Cpepp out of the mindset that he is still the player that he used to be…he just isn’t. Daunte Culpepper will be fired up to prove Miami coaches wrong, the fans will meet him with a mix of support and ire as he takes the field. It will be the pressure of the Dolphins defense that will silence it for good…something that the Dolphins defense has been unable to do consistently for 4 quarters. We are entering week 4 of the NFL season, it was week 4 last year that Daunte played his final game for Miami, and the last time that he started an NFL game.

In the secondary the Dolphins will not face another Coles or Cotchery, they will instead face an underachieving tandem of potential in Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter.

Travis Daniels is starting his first game as a safety taking over for the ineffective Traveres Tillman. Daniels has been ineffective himself as a CB, but with the healthy return of Andre’ Goodman and the IR status of Y. Bell, probably isn’t a bad move to see if Daniels has a future back there.

Curry and Porter will not overly challenge the play of the Dolphins secondary and Will Allen should have an easier time this week than he did last week. Culpepper is not used to the heat in Miami from the playing field and his history of fumbling and overthrowing the ball could lead to some picks this week for the Dolphins defense. However, any success in the secondary starts with success on the front.

The Dolphins front 7 have played horribly compared to last years top 4 defense. In reality the only real change in the front is the loss of Kevin Carter and the addition of Porter. In the case of Carter, he is missed, in the case of Porter, he is an improvement over Spragan, but his name is rarely mentioned. When the team needs him the most, he is on the sidelines, which makes you wonder about his injured knee and how it is holding up. Are his problems mental as a result of the injury, are they the natural result of age, or should we just chalk this up to “one of those things”. Porter missed all of training camp nursing that injury, of course it doesn’t really matter as most of the Dolphins starters on the D’line missed training camp while they were nursing a water bottle.

Matt Roth was supposed to be an impact player this year and so far, he has only been mentioned on two occasions, that would be worrisome if not for the fact that league defensive MVP Jason Taylor has had his mentioned about the same.

Vonnie Holliday has been non-existent and so has Keith Traylor. About the only person you can say is out there being productive is Channing Crowder and he is going to wear down. Offenses have been running more to his side and away from Porter…apparently they still think Porter is a threat…he may be, but he hasn’t shown it yet.

Zach Thomas has yet to be cleared to play (as of Wednesday morning) but it is likely that he will see the field provided their are no lingering effects of the concussion. If Thomas misses this week, the “minor” concussion he suffered on the first play against Dallas is more severe than what we are being told.

Miami has to shut down Lamont Jordan. Any success in this game starts there. If the Dolphins can not stop him, then the Raiders will use a combination of play action pass and Cpepp roll outs to exploit the middle with Curry who leads the team in yards and receptions. The Raiders offensive line is still trying to find a cohesive bond that plagued them last year and the bust tag of 1st round draft pick Robert Gallery has yet to be lifted, but it is getting closer.

Special Teams could be where this game is won or lost. Both Punters have booming legs who can pin the opposition back behind the 20 but both teams have poor coverage skills on those punts which means that return yardage could be easy to find.

Each team needs to get better at covering their kicks and you can bet that the Raiders broke down the Leon Washington return from last week and will try and exploit the Dolphins coverage units which are horrendous.

Of the two kickers, Jay Feely and Sebastian Janikowski, Feely has the edge. Feely has yet to miss a FG and although Janikowski’s miss was from outside 50, his accuracy and consistency has always been criticized.

Overall Predictions:

I think this will be a close game and it is one that the Dolphins should win. Will they? Hard to say, it depends on who is going to break down this week. It has been the defense, the offense, and the coverage special teams.

Miami 21 – Oakland 15