The Draft Update
By Brian Miller
There is an interesting thing going on in the NFL this year in terms of the draft positioning. As promised, this is the update on the current draft order rankings as provided by NFLDraftcountdown.com. (Each team that is in the same win/loss bracket could be higher or lower depending on the strength of schedule system used to seed teams for the draft, in subsequent rounds the team picking first in those tied brackets moves to the bottom and the 2nd team moves up and so on.)
Perhaps the biggest surprise is not the fact that the Miami Dolphins are sitting squarely in the lead for the number 1 overall pick by two games, but the fact that there are currently 19 out of 32 teams that are in position for a top 5 draft pick. NINETEEN. Each of those teams have no more than 5 wins, and on the tail end, you will find the Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinal, Chicago Bears, and the likes. Teams that have struggled of late. With a mere 5 games left, it is not out of the question for many of those teams to finish with top 10 picks or at the very least top 10 slotting. What I mean by that is, as stated above, if 4 or 5 teams are sitting with the same record each team will at some point in the draft pick at the high end of a round. So a top 10 first rounder for one team, could be a 15 in round 5. There are that many teams tied right now without winning records.
The Dolphins obviously sit at number 1 with a two game “lead” if you want to call it that. According to NFLDC, the Rams, the Jets, and the Patriots, follow Miami in that order. Obviously everyone in the NFL wants to see the 9’ers win so that the Patriot pick moves down a few. What about the rest of the teams? Who do we want to see move up and move down to position ourselves with a better chance of moving that one overall should that be the desire come draft day?
First we need to look at the teams who might be interesting partners, and then examine why the potential to trade with the exists at all.
Atlanta Falcons – 3-8 – 7th spot: The Falcons are the team that many fans believe would be a prime opportunity to trade with. The reason is they could use both Brian Brohm (a Petrino guy) or Darren McFadden as the Dunn/Norwood combination isn’t working well enough. The reason they might move up? Simple, both Miami and the Jets could take both teams off the board in the first three picks. The Falcons would be left out at number 7.
Carolina Panthers – 4-7 – 14th: The Panthers are another team that might be willing to make a jump to number 1 as well, but, and it is a big BUT, they would need to be closer to the bottom, as in top 5 for it be beneficial to the Phins. Carolina has a lot of holes to fill, but the lack of drafting a stud on offense in round 1 is hurting their offensive production. Carolina is a slim bet if at all to be a trade partner, but it should not be ruled out completely yet.
Baltimore Ravens – 4-7 – 11: The Ravens are another team that might, should pieces fall, rather losses fall, find themselves looking at moving up in the draft. They have a need for a franchise QB and it is more than possible that they will wait and see who falls to them rather than jump up to number 1 to get one. However, if the Ravens fall short, they too could end up in a top 5 pick where drafting a QB other than who becomes the top rated guy, could be a reach. So trading up could be an option.
Denver Broncos – 5-6 – 15: The Broncos are a long shot for dropping enough of their remaining games to put them in a position to be high enough to move up. However, keep in mind that the Broncos love RB’s and this year, their RB corp has not been as productive with the committee they use. Travis Henry is a very solid RB when healthy, but he faces a suspension and with the Broncos love of RB’s, if they somehow get into position, they could make a move upwards to try and get him.
Dallas Cowboys – I only mention them because there are so many rumors of a Jerry Jones love fest for McFadden, so I would be remiss not to. The Cowboys have two first round picks in this years draft, however, the 2nd belongs to the Browns slotting and therefore is looking more like a late 1st rounder as well. To move from number 1 overall to the bottom of round 1, even for 2 1sts is not a likely scenario. Nor a really smart either.
If those are the teams that might move up, what about the teams that will not? There are as many if not more.
NY Jets – Miami should not want to trade with them.
St. Louis – Not likely to finish in the 2nd overall spot, but unless they truly covet Glenn Dorsey, they will not move up for QB or RB.
Minnesotta – On the surface you might think that the Rick Speilman led Vikings might be dumb enough to move up to the number 1, but they have a stud RB in Peterson, and there will be a QB on the board when they pick. They could move up, but only a few spots and they are not likely to finish near the bottom 5.
Washington Redskins – Always a possibility, but the 1st overall pick does not hold the need for the Skins.
Oakland Raiders – They drafted number 1 overall last year, endured a holdout with that pick. No way will they voluntarily go through that again. Of course we are talking about Al Davis.
Kansas City Chiefs – Even though it appears that Mueller and Carl Peterson love each other enought to keep talking about trades, both are bullheaded enough that even if the Chiefs wanted to move up in the draft, there is no way that the two of them could consumate a deal in 10 weeks, let alone in 10 minutes.
This year it is very apparent that even with a running back of Darren McFaddens talent and the perception that Brian Brohm could still be the number 1 QB off the board, there are few teams that actually would give up the trade value to move up to number 1 and pay that type of salary. Perhaps the best place to draft is in the 2 slot. Teams pay less of a trade premium and less in the wallet as well. To get there however, you need to win. As it stands now, the Dolphins have not been able to do that, let alone do it twice or what may have to be 3 times.
As the draft lineup stands now, the top 10 look like this:
Miami
St. Louis
NY Jets
NE – through SF
Oakland
Cincy
ATL
Vikings
Cardinals
Saints
Of those teams it is simple to think that a few of them will be out of the top 1o. In the meantime, root for SF to win as that moves NE down and hopefully out of the top 5. Root for Atlanta to lose as that will move them closer to the top 5, they are as it stands now, the best opportunity to move out of the number 1 slot, sans winning more than the number 2 slot.
What we don’t want, is a tie with multiple teams. This year the number 1 slot gets the 1st pick in round 1 and the last pick in round 1, number 32, since NE has theirs taken away. A tie would mean alternating rounds. Something we do not want, even if it is only every other round.
With 5 weeks left on the season, so many things can happen, and so many things will. It is all a matter of what teams are best suited for a deal with Miami at number 1.
One thing is for certain. As it stands right now, the only play worth an actual number 1 pick by Miami in round 1, is McFadden. Not because he is needed, but because he still may be traded after the pick is made…getting stuck with him, is not the worst thing in the world.