Free Agent Predictions: Defense
By Brian Miller
Yesterday I took a look at the Miami Dolphins possible changes on the offensive side of the ball with a position by position prediction in free agency so today I will finish that up with a look at the defensive side of the ball.
This is a scaled down free agent list and there will be a lot more secondary and tertiary players that are added to the roster this off-season, this is a look at the top prospects and who may come to Miami.
The Defensive Line:
Who’s Available: Jared Allen – KC, Albert Haynesworth – Tennessee, Justin Smith – Cincinnati, Corey Williams – Green Bay, Mike Rucker – Carolina, Sam Rayburn – SF.
The Skinny:
"Jared Allen and Albert Haynesworth are not going anywhere. If their respective teams make a mistake and let them enter FA, they will be the target of a slew of teams, including the Dolphins, but it won’t happen.Justin Smith is right around the average point perhaps slightly above, but that is because he did not play all that well this past season. If prior to that was any indication he would be way above average. He was franchised last year but we never signed to a long term contract. He will not be an expensive pick up due to his numbers this past year.Corey Williams is likely going to be the top 1 or 2 free agents at his position."
The Dolphins: Miami has yet to decide if they are going to go with a 34 or a 43 defense and I still maintain that it will continue as a hybrid while they transition to a 34. Of the above names, I can not see the Dolphins throwing tons of money at free agent lineman unless a guy like Haynesworth or Allen became available. They are bank busters though and even with tons of cap space, both would take a bite out of it. Corey Williams is likely to command a pretty penny as well.
My Guess: NONE. At least none of these names. The Dolphins have some youth on the defensive line and may work with them this year while moving solely to a 34 and then using next year to attack the free agency on the Dline. They will probably address this unit in the draft, but at what spot it is unclear. Not likely in the first even if they trade down. Glenn Dorsey is not a 34 type of lineman and investing top money in a guy that is not considered a fit for your system wouldn’t be a smart move. At the DE position, Miami can address that in the draft or with what is currently on the roster. If Jason Taylor is traded then the position becomes more of a need. The Dolphins will strongly look at LB/DE Chris Long as a top draft choice in round 1.
Linebackers:
Who’s Available: Lance Briggs – Chicago, Tedy Bruschi – NE, Karlos Dansby – Arizona, Demorrio Williams – Atlanta, Mark Simoneau – New Orleans, Kawika Mitchell – NY Giants, Danny Clark – Houston.
The Skinny:
"Only Tedy Brushci is expected to either resign with the Patriots or retire. The rest may be offered contracts to stay with their respective teams, but none are expected to be tagged and all expect to test the free agent market. Although the list of linebackers is not stellar, it is a solid group."
The Dolphins: The release of 12 year veteran and fan favorite Zach Thomas has left a hole in not only the defense but in the personality of the team itself. Channing Crowder is expected to move to the middle and the Phins still have Joey Porter on the outside. Depending on which way the Dolphins move their defense, they could be out both an interior linebacker and an outside. They reportedly have no interest in retaining Donnie Spragan. No matter who they decide to target they will have to target at least 2 LB’s this year. They may not be top of the heap but they will have to come from somewhere. Miami lacks depth as well. With a draft class mediocre with sure fire blue chip LB’s, the Dolphins may still look for a gem if one should be available. With so much riding on this draft class and so many holes to fill, the Dolphins would do well for themselves to address LB’s in free agency.
My Guess: Lance Briggs. The Dolphins have cleared more cap space and are setting themselves up for a run at someone, and Briggs could be it. He is a big fast productive LB who is still in his 20’s. Briggs will command some top dough, but not likely in the range of Adalius Thomas last year. I think that this will be the Dolphins top priority and unless Briggs wants to visit a bunch of teams this year, he could be in Miami within days of free agency beginning. Danny Clark is also a possibility, and if Miami signs Clark, who will be cheap, they will keep Crowder on the outside weak spot. Clark is a very good LB who is still developing and has not reached his potential. He is a project, but one that will have time to develop in Miami.
Defensive Backs:
Who’s Available: Assante Samuel – New England, Mike Doss – Minnesota, Drayton Florence – San Diego, Randal Gay – NE, Marcus Trufant – Seattle, Ken Hamlin – Dallas.
The Skinny:
"Assante Samuel will start free agency seeking Nate Clement kind of money, Clement signed for almost 80 million last year with SF. He will not get that in Miami. He is the elite CB on the market and is young. NE will try and resign him, but in reality, he will be priced out of their range. Randal Gay will be resigned by NE because they can afford him. With Samuel gone, they need him to stay.Marcus Trufant will seek a starting job outside of Seattle having lost it there. He will not garner huge money, but may try and get it. He may have a year or two left in him, but will be better suited now to being a mentor to a young draftee which is one reason he could end up in Miami. He will make a good bridge for the right money.Mike Doss is going to have a decent day when he gets paid, but he may stay in Minnesota. He is on one of the best defenses in the league and the Vikings have the cap space to keep him.Drayton Florence started as the starting CB on the Chargers, he ended it backing up Antonio Cromartie who played lights out. With Cromartie playing stellar, the Chargers may try and keep him, but they won’t fight for him. Florence will likely play elsewhere next year."
The Dolphins: Miami is in serious need of both Safety and Cornerback help. Questions on the injury problems with Yeremiah Bell may see him let go as he is scheduled to become a free agent, the only real star on the Dolphins roster is Will Allen and he is serviceable. The Dolphins need to find a shut down corner, but they would way overpay for the services of the only one available, Assante Samuel. Look for the Phins to address the position in the draft, and if they can somehow trade down with Dallas for their firsts, don’t be surprised if Miami does not spend two of their top 3 picks on Cb’s. The Dolphins also will likely resign Michael Lehan.
My Guess: Ken Hamlin. If, and it is a big if at this point, Hamlin becomes a free agent, the Dolphins should have him signed within a day and he could be the first free agent Miami signs. At 26 years old, Hamlin is still reaching his potential as a safety. Hamlin’s’ presence in Miami will help with what is expected to be youth at the Cornerback spot as well as the progress of Jason Allen. Another possibility is Drayton Florence who will not command a huge contract but is better than what Miami currently has on the roster.