Is Ryan Tannehill a bad clutch QB?

With players reporting to training camp, news is abuzz over the return of the Miami Dolphins. The team hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2008 but there’s optimism coming into this season.

One of the reasons to be optimistic is the potential growth of starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who’s entering his second campaign under Bill Lazor’s offensive scheme. Tannehill looked good in the brand new scheme last season.

So when the Sun Sentinel’s Omar Kelly was asked on the Joe Rose Show what the quarterback needs to improve on this year, he said the following:

"“Play on third down, play in the fourth quarter. I mean those clutch moments where you have to put a team on your back and win a game or perform at a high level, Ryan is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s statistically below average on third-down passing. He’s statistically below average on fourth-quarter performance and if you look at this team and this franchise and this organization not just during the Joe Philbin era, which happens to coincide with the Ryan Tannehill era, look at it the past decade. When do they fall short? They fall short in the fourth quarter of games and they fall short in the fourth quarter of the season. In 25 years, the Dolphins have only had eight winning Decembers. 25 years. One of them happens to be during Joe Philbin’s era, Joe Philbin’s tenure, in his second season. But even that [season], with a chance to make the playoffs in a season finale they get skunked vs. the Jets.”"

Let’s crack open these stats and see just how bad Tannehill has been on third downs and the fourth quarter.

According to the Washington Post, Tannehill has a 39.9 completion percentage on passing third downs, which ranks him tenth among AFC quarterbacks. He’s below Kyle Orton and Andy Dalton only because he has three more third down passing opportunities than Dalton despite completing the same amount of passes.

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Those aren’t good numbers but his new contract is similar to Dalton’s so it makes sense that they match.

In the fourth quarter, Tannehill’s quarterback rating was 80.9 in 2014. This total has him ranked 12th in the AFC below Charlie Whitehurst and Peyton Manning. Tannehill threw five touchdown passes and three interceptions in the final quarter. Not exactly great numbers, but not the five touchdowns and six interceptions Manning put together either.

His numbers do steadily fall as the game progresses. His QBR in the first half is 95.1. That’s good for sixth in the AFC and 13th in the conference. In the second half, it falls to 90.5, but that is still good for eighth in the AFC and 15th in the league. Then it falls to that 80.9 mark in the fourth quarter.

His rating also dipped on the road as Tannehill’s home QBR is 97.6 (14th in the league) while on the road his rating falls to 88.1.

One stat to note is Tannehill’s fourth quarter passing percentage. He has a 59.8 completion percentage in the final period, but he had more passing attempts than any other AFC quarterback. League-wise, only Drew Brees and Matt Ryan threw more often in the fourth frame with Eli Manning matching his 169 attempts.

So more than any other AFC passer, Tannehill found himself in the position of having to pull the Dolphins’ fannies out of the fryer but couldn’t get it done. Why is that?

Well for starters, in December, the defense was putrid. In the final four regular season games, Miami surrendered slightly over 35 points allowed per game. Therefore, in order for Tannehill to overcome the Dolphins’ winter of their discontent, he’d have to lead five touchdown drives just to tie the game.

Secondly, another factor could’ve been that his big play and most targeted wide receiver wasn’t the surest weapon. Instead, Tannehill completed 75 percent of his passes to Jarvis Landry, 73.1 percent to running back Lamar Miller, and 69 percent tight end Charles Clay. Those three players finished in the AFC’s top 20 in completion percentage while Wallace, who led the team with 115 targets, only caught 58 percent of his attempts.

Not all of that can be blamed on Wallace though as Tannehill very much needs to work on his long ball. But can Tannehill hope to improve in the clutch with a young, mostly brand new receiving corps? That’ll be the big question.

Yes, Tannehill has been a mostly average late down, late game quarterback. However, calling him one of the worst in the league is bit much. Did he throw nine fourth quarter picks like Brian Hoyer? Did he have a 60.3 fourth quarter rating like Colin Kaepernick? No, he was a little better than that.

Did he have a better fourth quarter completion rate than Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Matt Stafford? Did he have a better fourth quarter rating than Peyton Manning? Why, yes. Yes he did.

While Tannehill needs to improve in many facets of the game, calling him one of the worst is a bit of a misnomer. There’s a difference between bad and average, and so far Tannehill has just been average.