History has shown over the last ten years that the Dolphin’s first round picks have only have a 50% chance of being the most productive player in any given draft.
Let us examine the last ten drafts as our sample size.
#1 Pick: DeVante Parker (Best player)
Right now I would say that he was our best pick last year. Although he only started the last six games, he was productive, having scored a touchdown in every game he started. A near certainty to start this season, his future looks promising.
Saw limited action having been injured at the beginning of the year. Even when healthy he saw limited duty playing behind Lamar Miller. Having shown flashes, his workload will increase whether he starts or not.
A rotational player who should improve and see his role increased.
#1 Pick: Ja’Wuan James
A starter his rookie season and injured for half of last year, James appears to be a sold player although he was not the best pick that year.
Jarvis Landry (Best player)
Clearly he was our best pick in this draft. Landry always seems to get the extra yards after the catch, he is the anti- Brian Hartline. He reminds me of Steve Smith, a player who always produces and has that attitude of never being complacent. As good as Landry has been, I expect him to get even better.
#1 Pick: Dion Jordan
Right now he is a solid contender for biggest Dolphin’s bust ever. If he comes back this season it is still possible for him to turn things around. In my opinion Jordan needs to be playing linebacker. His coverage skills are exceptional, his pass rushing skills are average at best.
Jelani Jenkins (Best player)
Last year he was hobbled and it reflected in his play. The year before he was outstanding. Jenkins is a free agent after this season, expect him to have a big year.
#1 Pick: Ryan Tannehill
A starter at the most important position since his was a rookie. I consider him good but not great. Some do not even consider him good.
Lamar Miller and Olivier Vernon (Best draft picks)
Both have been starters and producers. Vernon just received the largest contract in free agency. Miller was also well compensated. It is a shame that both players were not offered contract extensions last year. It hurts to see two great picks who played for the Hurricanes in our own back yard, leave the organization.
#1 Pick: Mike Pouncey (Best player)
A day one starter who has made the Pro-Bowl. I consider Pouncey very good but slightly over-rated. He was a solid pick. If only this organization could draft a guard that was just an average N.F.L. starter.
A good player that was a find as a 6th round pick. Clay is a play maker for the Bills right now who drastically over paid for his services. As good as Clay was, the Dolphin’s were right not to match Buffalo’s offer for a player who is often nicked up.
#1 Pick Jared Odrick
A solid but unspectacular player who left us in free agency. Odrick played D.E. in a 3-4 and D.T. in a 4-3. For a number 1 pick I would have liked to see more production but he was pretty solid.
Reshad Jones (Best player)
He did not start right away, but boy is he a playmaker. Hopefully our Free safety play will get better so he will not have to cheat to help out on the other side. As a 5th round pick, we hit the jackpot.
#1 Pick Vontae Davis (Best player)
A good player for us whose only fault was that he had to go to the bathroom during practice- if you do not remember, Philbin got mad at him for this on Hard Knocks. We got a second round draft pick for him when was traded to the Colts. Davis went on to make the Pro-Bowl. The player we drafted with the pick-Jamar Taylor- ouch!
Smith was drafted in the second round and was a good player for us. His coverage skills were good, his hands were bad. I have never seen a defensive back drop more interceptions.
#1 Pick Jake Long (Best Player)
Parcells was running the show and choose long over Matt Ryan partly because the rookie pay scale was not in place yet. At the time, if you got a number 1 pick wrong it would create salary cap hell- see Jamarcus Russell. Long was one of the best left tackles in football before injuries ravaged him.
#1 Pick Ted Ginn and “his family.”
Well, he was better that Brady Quinn who most pundits had us taking. Ginn was meant to play flag football. He is just as afraid of getting hit, as I would be in the ring with Mike Tyson. Whenever he could get out of bounds he did. Ginn is the exact opposite of Jarvis Landry.
Paul Soliai (Best player)
A tremendous talent who took a few years to come on. Not much as pass rusher, but he was fantastic against the run. When he left, our run defense began its slide.
Jason Allen (Best player and a bust)
Was he a safety or a corner? Who cares, he sucked at both. And he was the best of the worst that year. Do some research and see all the players we choose that year if you want to see what a lousy draft looks like.
So there you have it. The final count is 5 number 1’s for best player out of the last 10 drafts. So it is just as likely that a first round pick will not even be our best player drafted. When following the draft, remember there are 7 rounds to consider.