Three Things can Take Dolphins Back to Playoffs

Surprisingly, the Dolphins (6-8) can still make the playoffs. But in order for this to happen, three things must happen.

This time last year the Miami Dolphins were sitting pretty.

Following a Saturday night shellacking of the New York Jets, 34-13, the Dolphins geared up for a Christmas Eve battle against their division rival, the Buffalo Bills, in Buffalo, where frigid conditions awaited them.

The game, a quintessential back-and-forth contest between historic rivals, lived up to the hype, and the Dolphins escaped Buffalo with a 34-31 overtime victory to get to 10-5 on the year. The following day on Christmas, Miami needed a Kansas City Chiefs victory over a struggling Denver Broncos team to secure its first playoff appearance in eight seasons.

The Dolphins had to wait, but they got their present: The Chiefs cruised to a 33-10 victory on Christmas night.

This year, the Dolphins will need more than a Christmas present to return back to the playoffs—they’ll need a miracle.

ESPN’s James Walker laid out the five different ways the Dolphins could still make the playoffs this year, all of which include the Dolphins winning their last two games against the Chiefs and the Bills. Every scenario involves a host of outcomes to go Miami’s way.

Like Walker’s piece, many NFL playoff simulators have the Dolphins postseason chances at slim-to-none. The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight have the Dolphins chances at making the playoffs at 3 percent. Football Outsiders has Miami’s chances a little higher at 4.4 percent.

Despite the unlikelihood of Miami playing in January, the fourth scenario in Walker’s piece remains attainable: If the Dolphins win out, the Bills and Titans lose out, and the Raiders and Chargers lose one game, the Dolphins are in.

Sure, it sounds crazy, but is it? Here’s the three things that must happen in order for Miami to return to the playoffs.

1. The Dolphins win out. In order for this to happen, the Dolphins must take care of business. Of course, this won’t be an easy task. The Dolphins would have to beat a talented Chiefs team on the road in one of NFL’s most hostile environments. Then the Dolphins would have to beat a Bills team that just last week made the Dolphins’ defense resemble last year’s unit that gave up a franchise-record 6,122 yards.

But if the Dolphins play up to their potential, something they’ve rarely done this season, they can and should win their remaining two games.

2. The Bills and Titans lose out. Both teams have a tough road ahead of them. The Bills will be underdogs this Sunday as they play the Patriots on the road. Buffalo then has to go back on the road to play the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, where Miami has played relatively well this season, posting a 4-2 record.

Things don’t get any easier for the Titans, who must play the two Cinderella teams of the year, the L.A. Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars, both of whom are 10-4 respectively.

Although both matchups are at home, the Titans have struggled as of late—losing back-to-back games to the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers—and should continue to do so against two of the best teams in the league.

3. The Chargers and Raiders lose one game. Fortunately for Miami, these two clubs face each other the last week of the season. Therefore, barring a tie, which is extremely uncommon, one of these teams will end the season with a loss.

If both the Chargers (at Jets) and Raiders (at Eagles) lose, the Dolphins’ chances increase. No outcome in the NFL is a given, but I like the Eagles’ chances at home against the Raiders.

The Jets, meanwhile, have the opportunity to play spoiler against the Chargers, who are still fighting for a wildcard spot, and bring Dolphins fans some joy this holiday season.

Sure, it’s safe to assume that the Dolphins won’t return to the playoffs. But like they say, “it’s not over until it’s over.” And for the Dolphins, this year’s gift is somehow still attainable.