Miami Dolphins fantasy football start and sit for week 15
The Miami Dolphins are riding high off of their miracle victory over the Patriots, but in terms of fantasy football, we probably need to pump the brakes in the anticipation of their matchup against the Vikings.
First, and foremost, for those of you playing for your fantasy league championships this weekend or simply advanced to the semi round depending on your league settings, let me say congratulations. Last week’s games were crazy, and nearly impossible to predict. Kudos to you if you survived that mayhem.
By now, we all know that the Miami Dolphins survived their matchup with the Patriots by creating some mayhem themselves in what has simply been declared a miracle. The improbable conclusion keeps the Dolphins playoff hopes alive as they currently sit tied with three other teams for the final playoff spot with a record of 7-6.
If you stay up to speed with social media or watch the sports talk shows on television, you would see that Dolphins fans and many others who simply just hate the Patriots are continuing to celebrate Miami’s victory from last week. The Dolphins players and the coaching staff, on the other hand, need to put it behind them quickly, and turn their full attention to Minnesota. If Miami is seriously going to make their run to the playoffs then they need every game.
We’ve heard the scenarios where they can afford to lose one, but in that situation you’re still depending on a lot of help, and with so many teams vying for one spot, I don’t believe that 9-7 will get it done. Should they win out, and finish 10-6, the dominoes should fall in place to give Miami their second playoff berth in three seasons.
With that said, this still remains a tough matchup for the Dolphins on the road. The Vikings have underachieved this season, but they too, are battling for their own playoff spot. Their loss on Monday night to the Seahawks has made things more difficult for them, but like the Dolphins, if they win out then they’ll be in.
Losers of 3 of their last 4, one has to believe that Kirk Cousins and the Vikings will fully be ready for this important game. Miami has to be on the same page for a shot to win, but it’s a very difficult matchup for the Dolphins offense against a stout Vikings defense. The Dolphins offense was very successful last week against New England, but it will be difficult to trust any player to insert in fantasy lineups during the playoffs. We’ll break down each position, and see if there is any player we can trust starting in this week’s start and sit.
Ryan Tannehill has played well since returning from his shoulder injury. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in all three games, and has finished with no less than a 103.6 quarterback rating. Last week against New England, he finished with a rating of 155.2, his second highest of the season.
If it wasn’t for Miami’s difficult schedule against tough defenses down the stretch, I would have Tannehill rated as one of my top streamers for the remainder of the fantasy playoffs. Those still playing in their fantasy playoffs, however, are likely to already have their top QB that they have been riding the majority of the season.
If you’ve survived, however, with middle of the road type quarterbacks (like me), and starting players simply based on matchups, I’d still suggest looking elsewhere despite Tannehill’s impressive numbers as of late. Minnesota’s defense is 5th best in the league in giving up passing yards, allowing 215.6 yards per game. In addition, they are tied with Jacksonville for league best in allowing just 15 touchdown passes all season.
Since his return, and similar to his stats to start the season, Tannehill’s fantasy production has been dependent on his touchdown passes. He has still yet to surpass 300 yards passing in a game, and there’s no good reason to predict he will do so against Minnesota. If Miami is going to pull off the upset in Minnesota then they are likely going to ask Tannehill to manage the game, and limit turnovers. That is not likely going to result in quality fantasy production.
Sit
Running Backs
Miami’s run game against New England was terrific. As a team, they totaled 189 yards on the ground. Over a quarter of it came off of Brandon Bolden‘s 54-yard score in the 2nd quarter. Bolden scored again on his only other carry, proving to be a huge thorn in the side of his former team. Prior to last week, Bolden was a non-factor, and still does not remain on anyone’s fantasy radar.
Bolden was the recipient of the big plays, but it was Frank Gore who led the backfield throughout the game. Gore continues to age in reverse, and it’s become clear that he is the best runner in Miami’s backfield, although Kenyan Drake is the one capable of breaking big plays. Gore did have his own big play against New England, breaking out for a 36-yard gain in the 1st quarter. He would finish the game with 92 yards on just 12 carries, a highly impressive 7.7 yards per carry. With that average, it’s a wonder why he didn’t see more carries.
For 59 minutes and 53 seconds, Kenyan Drake was nearly nonexistent against the Patriots, but he’ll forever be remembered for that miraculous touchdown at the end of regulation. The touchdown not only saved the Dolphins playoff chances, it also saved his fantasy owners that were bold enough to start him.
In comparison to Miami’s rushing success against New England, Minnesota was equally bad at defending the run on Monday night against Seattle. The Vikings gave up 214 yards on the ground to the Seahawks high-powered rushing attack. With that said, this is still not a favorable matchup for the Dolphins running backs.
In many aspects, Drake has been phased out of the offense in favor of Gore. He hasn’t had more than 8 rushing attempts in the last four games, and hasn’t topped over 32 yards on the ground in that span. Now, his involvement has been more in the passing game as of late, but last weekend, he wasn’t targeted at all even though that final play goes down in the stat sheet that he was.
Bottom line, Drake has become touchdown dependent, and with four total touchdowns in the last three games that has worked out, but eventually, that will slow down and he will bust as a result of not hitting pay dirt. Gore has been the opposite seeing as how he is getting the bulk of the carries at a respectable average.
He doesn’t get the 20 touches a game, however, like he once did, and because he still doesn’t have a rushing touchdown this year, he doesn’t produce the numbers necessary for fantasy relevance. He’s a nice player to have for very deep leagues, and although I predict that he will once again lead Miami in carries this week, his numbers are likely to result in what we’ve seen all season or worse.
Kenyan Drake – Sit
Frank Gore – Sit
Wide Receivers
This time of year, injuries typically play a major factor in how fantasy owners strategize their teams. Usually that revolves around running backs, and it has this season as well, but it’s also had a big impact on wide receivers as well. Players like A.J. Green, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cooper Kupp, are already out for the remainder of the season. Other top wideouts like Odell Beckham and Tyreek Hill carry questionable tags heading into this pivotal week. As a result, there are suddenly not a lot of options at wide receiver for fantasy owners.
A lot of teams have been forced to rely on rookies to become their number 1 or 2 options in the offense, and although they possess a ton of upside, they may not yet be ready for that level of consistency. That lack of consistency can be detrimental for fantasy owners in the playoffs.
The Dolphins premier wide receiver, Kenny Stills, is widely viewed as a boom or bust type receiver. Against New England, he clearly boomed with his 8 receptions, 135 yards, and a touchdown. He’s clearly Tannehill’s favorite receiver as he’s been targeted 15 times in the last two games, which is also after he complained publicly that he couldn’t throw the ball to himself. Complaining works.
It’s a risky play to start Stills this week as he’s likely to be shadowed by Vikings shutdown corner, Xavier Rhodes. There are not a lot of other options, however, and one has to think that Tannehill will continue to seek out his #1 receiver. He’s the only Dolphins receiver worth considering this week.
Kenny Stills – Start (if necessary)
Tight Ends
There’s been a lot of talk about the possibility of eliminating kickers from fantasy football. I’m highly against the idea, and would strongly consider eliminating tight ends from the equation before anything else. There are only a handful of tight ends that are worthy in fantasy football, and if we could just designate them as wide receivers then we could eliminate the obligations to insert a player from this dreadful position.
That’s an argument for another day, however. In the meantime, most fantasy owners are left scouring available free agents at the position, throwing a dart at a player, and hoping for the best. As bad as the options are though, none of those darts are being thrown at Miami’s tight ends.
Don’t even roster
Defense
As projected, Miami’s defense had a tough outing against New England, particularly without Xavien Howard. There’s a strong chance they’ll be without Howard again this week, making for another difficult situation. Kirk Cousins may not be Tom Brady, but he does have some very good receivers in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Both players are very capable of making big plays down the field.
Surprisingly, Miami did a good job at defending the run against New England. In fact, they’ve been pretty good against running backs over the last three weeks. They’ll need to continue that trend in order to stop Dalvin Cook. Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been as good as they should be, but it’s still a difficult assignment for the Dolphins young defense. There are probably around a dozen defensive matchups that I like better this weekend.
Sit