Miami Dolphins mock drafts can change with one single choice
By Brian Miller
The Miami Dolphins have enough draft picks to fill most of their needs this year but with the mock draft season in full swing, finding the right players can come down to a single choice.
Hitting on draft picks is not an exact science and drafting can’t-miss players often leads to big swings and misses. Doing the little things to vet players is important and part of the process but as we look at the slew of mock drafts, we see that a single player can change the rest of the draft. Sometimes, it works out well, other times, now so much.
I wanted to get a look at what would happen if we changed up the top pick in the draft for the Dolphins and how it would work out over three rounds. With Miami holding five picks in the first three, what would happen if the Dolphins took a different player each time?
Obviously, this is just a quick study because we don’t know what other NFL teams are planning to do with their draft picks. Trades will shake-up the draft and the order of the draft. What the Jets do at pick number two has a domino effect as well. For this exercise, we looked simply at everything staying the same in terms of draft position.
In this first draft, I went defense with Micah Parsons. Parsons is not going in the top five but since I didn’t do any draft pick trading, I wanted to see what a Dolphins draft might look like if Miami moved a pick or two and draft him over an offensive weapon.
Taking Parsons did shake up the draft and while DeVonte Smith was there at 18, I think we can all assume that would not be the case in reality. This isn’t a bad draft by any means and it checks the boxes. Michael Carter in round two is a stretch. In the other drafts, he was still on the board in round three and I think that is a better spot for him.
I really like Creed Humphrey but Landon Dickerson is rising on a lot of boards and I think he could be drafted before him.
This is my least favorite of the four and I like Parsons. I just think the Dolphins could do better and I don’t like the DeVonta Smith pick at 18. I should have just assumed he would be gone by then.
This one was a little more realistic in terms of the top pick and number 18. Penei Sewell makes a lot of sense for the Dolphins but in this particular draft, the rest of the board left Toney as the best WR option. I like Toney but not at 18. Najee Harris was off the board a pick earlier for comparison.
In round two, Basham was a logical pick and filled the need off the edge but it came at a cost. In previous draft models, two of the two centers fell to pick 50. This time, they did not. Is that because Toney was taken at 18 and shifted the selections? Maybe. Taking Basham at the top of round two in several other drafts didn’t change Creed Humphrey or Landon Dickerson falling. In this one, they did.
I like Jabril Cox at linebacker but I think two may be a little high. Michael Carter, as we looked at in the first mock, was still there in round three as I thought he would be.
We went with Sewell again at the top of this draft. Sewell is a smart football player that immediately makes the line better but in this scenario, Najee Harris was there at 18. In every mock I ran through, Harris only lasted beyond 20 three times and I ran about 10 of them. Not that this is scientific of course but that seems to be a common opinion, that 18 is about where he should go. What it does mean, is that if Miami wants Harris, they will either have to take him at 18 or trade up from round two to get him.
The Miami Dolphins could go a lot of ways with pick three and it will set up the rest of their draft.
I still like the Basham pick at the top of two. There may be other options but WR wasn’t as deep at the top of two so why reach? Taking a guy who could go at the end of round one seemed smart.
Humphrey and Dickerson both were available in this draft at 50 and I honestly could have gone either way. Jabril Cox fell to round three which surprised me a little bit as he had been off the board in most of the other mocks in late round two.
Of the four I decided to post, this was probably my favorite and makes the most sense for the Dolphins if they opt to not go Sewell with the 3rd overall pick. I will say this, in the drafts I conducted, three turns out to be really high for Smith. I looked at some of the spots for potential trades, 4, 7, and 8 and in most cases, Smith was still on the board. In fact, if I didn’t draft Smith at three, Ja’Marr Chase was the top WR drafted.
Doubling up on Alabama players made a lot of sense here and as we discussed on the last draft, Harris isn’t dropping too far after 18. I went with Basham again and he is my top pick for now in round two for Miami. Dickerson was on the board at 50 but Humphrey was not. We rounded it out with Paris Ford.
Mock drafts are exactly that, something to “mock”. With each pick made, the draft picks tend to shift. These mocks were done on NFLMockDraftDatabase and I am going to run some on other sites to see how they would translate. I think the Dolphins’ best options are Sewell or Smith at number three if they don’t trade down but I’m beginning to think that unless Sewell is the Dolphins’ choice, they absolutely should move a few spots down. I tried to focus on specific needs with each pick instead of BPA.