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Tua Tagovailoa: Where the Miami Dolphins QB ranks in the AFC East

By Brian Miller

ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 13: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball against the New York Jets at Bills Stadium on September 13, 2020 in Orchard Park, New York. Bills beat the Jets 27 to 17. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 13: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball against the New York Jets at Bills Stadium on September 13, 2020 in Orchard Park, New York. Bills beat the Jets 27 to 17. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images) /
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Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

The Miami Dolphins need Tua Tagovailoa to continue to improve but there is a lot of things to like about what they are seeing so far.

Tua’s first nine games of his career were met with some ‘OH my’ moments and some “shake-your-head” moments. Enough so that the media has ridiculed him consistently. Tua is ranked lower than Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence who many believe to be better than Newton.

Granted there isn’t a great body of work for Tua during his NFL career. So we will pepper in his college stats to show the differences between him and Wilson and even Lawrence.

  • 2020: 9 games, 186 completions, 290 attempts, 1,814 yards, 11 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
  • 2017: 8 games, 49 completions, 77 attempts, 636 yards, 11 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
  • 2018: 15 games, 245 completions, 355 attempts, 3,966 yards, 43 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
    • 15 games, 259 completions, 397 attempts, 3,280 yards, 30 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
  • 2019: 9 games, 180 completions, 252 attempts, 2,840 yards, 33 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
    • 15 games, 268 completions, 407 attempts, 3,665 yards, 36 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
    • 2020: 10 games, 231 completions, 334 attempts, 3,153 yards, 24 touchdowns, 5 interceptions.
  • QB Ratings:
    • Tua: 175, 199.4, 206.9
    • Lawrence: 157, 166.7, 169.2
    • Wilson: 157.2, 130.8, 196.4
    • Jones: 143.3, 186.8, 203.1

If we compare him to Lawrence, Tua’s numbers are quite impressive given the fact that Lawrence has been the “can’t-miss” prospect since his freshman year. Lawrence’s numbers are below Tua’s above. As we show above, they are very similar statistically.

We can debate whether or not Tua is better than Cam Newton. There was a time when we would have laughed at that notion but in reality, Newton only won one more game than Tua last year and struggled with consistency. Many believe, again, that Jones will take over at some point if Newton continues to struggle. It is for that reason that I have Tua ranked higher. All things being equal, Tua’s career is rising while Newton’s is coming to an end and it won’t be because he simply opts to retire. In this era of football, a QBs career should last a lot longer than 10 seasons.

Should we do a slide for Mac Jones?  Let’s just say that Jones had an impressive career at Alabama and that the two of them battling it out in the AFC East is going to be fun to watch.

So all in all, my rankings for the AFC East are as follows:

  1. Josh Allen – He is a tough football player who is getting better
  2. Tua Tagovailoa – rehabilitation and confidence hurt him in his rookie season but he has a very high ceiling.
  3. Cam Newton – Newton’s career is becoming less certain and his consistency is a problem. He should have shined in the Patriot’s offense but didn’t as a passer.
  4.  Zach Wilson – It’s close between him and Mac Jones given their college work volumes but as a prospect, Wilson seems to have far more upside than Jones at this point.
  5. Mac Jones – He has a lot to learn but he could make the AFC East a lot more interesting if he finds even moderate success or takes Newton’s job.
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