Evaluating the Miami Dolphins 2022 1st Round Pick from 49ers

The Miami Dolphins were very active leading up to the 2021 NFL Draft. To recap, they traded the 3rd overall pick to the San Francisco 49ers, moving down to 12, and acquired two future first round picks in exchange (2022 and 2023). Shortly afterwards, the Dolphins traded their own 2022 1st round draft pick to the Philadelphia Eagles to move from 12th, up to 6th, where they eventually selected Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle.

In the past couple seasons, I’ve found myself rooting nearly as hard against Houston and Pittsburgh as I have for Miami, knowing we owned some of their draft capital via the Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick trades. This season won’t be any different with San Francisco. Unfortunately, because of the 49ers talent, schedule, and coaching I can’t say that we’ll see the same returns as we did with those teams.

Last season, the 49ers caught the worst case of the injury bug that I can remember. This is born-out in the metrics, too. Football Outsiders keeps statistics on games missed due to injury, adjusted for player importance. According to their metric, the Niners missed a combined 166.6 games due to injury. This was 32 more games than the next highest team in 2020, and the second highest number recorded in the last 20 seasons. The Niners’ biggest losses included Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford and Raheem Mostert. The injuries woes were the primary reason for their disappointing 6-10 record.

No matter who wins the starting job at quarterback, the Niners identity begins and ends with the run game. The additions of Alex Mack (C), Trey Sermon (RB) and Aaron Banks (OG), coupled with best-in-class run-blocking tackles Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey, should see them return to the dominating run formula that led them to Super Bowl LIV.

Perhaps San Francisco’s greatest asset is Kyle Shanahan. For all the shine that Sean McVay gets in LA, I believe Shanahan is just as good, if not better. Like McVay, he has a knack for play-calling and designing. The more conventional mode of coordinating is to isolate as many favorable individual matchups on the field as possible and exploit them…a la Travis Kelce in KC or DK Metcalf in Seattle. Shanahan has a slightly modified approach. He uses the system to create mismatches, thus taking pressure off the players within the system.

Shanahan designs San Francisco’s run and play-action fits to look identical pre-snap. In a twisted game of bait-and-switch, he manipulates defenses’ expectations by calling different wrinkles out of the same pre-snap look that the offense just showed on an earlier play(s). The result leaves defenses confused and manufactures run-lanes for running backs and open field for receivers.

Vegas sportsbooks have San Francisco’s regular season win total over/under pegged at 10.5 games. I predict that they finish the regular season at 11-6 and narrowly lose the division to the Rams. They still make the playoffs as a wild card though, and go on a deep playoff run, losing to Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship. Of course, this is just a specific guess of how the season will play out. To hedge a bit, I’ll just say that they make the playoffs and win at least a game. This loosely defines San Francisco’s (and thus Miami’s) 2022 draft slot as being in the range of 25-32. If the pick does fall in this range, there are a couple of prospects I like that Miami could draft.

Perrion Winfrey (no relation to Oprah) is a defensive tackle that is projected by several mock draft sites to be available in the late 1st round. He came on radars in the second half of last season for Oklahoma. Winfrey doesn’t fill up the stat sheet but he eats up blockers and muddies the A-gap. Run defense was an area of relative weakness for Miami in 2020. They gave up 4.5 yards-per-carry, tied for 13th highest in the league.

Raekwon Davis had a promising rookie campaign for the Dolphins, while Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler fill their D-end roles well enough. Defensive line doesn’t project to be a glaring need next offseason, as all three are under contract through at least 2022. Drafting Winfrey would serve to stack depth on the roster and add a specialty run stopper.

Another guy to monitor is Texas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. He stands at 6’4”, 217-pounds and is a former safety. Overshown compiled 8 tackles-for-loss, 2 interceptions, 7 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles in 2020, his first season playing LB. While Jerome Baker and Benardrick McKinney are locked up under contract the next few seasons, Miami lacks depth behind them. Overshown has the big frame and coverage instincts that Flores likes to have in linebackers. He could be a value in the 25-32 range where we’ve seen top linebacker prospects taken in recent years.

While we’re certainly hoping for the best, I’d be remiss not to entertain the possibility that Tua doesn’t pan out this season. If this is the case, Miami will likely be in the market to move up to select a QB. Fortunately, they have the adequate capital to do so. 2022 is slated to be another deep QB draft, including 6+ players with serious 1st-round potential.

Sam Howell and Spencer Rattler headline a group that also includes Carson Strong, Kedon Slovis and JT Daniels. Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and Matt Corral are also intriguing as dual-threat QBs. Surely not all of these players will develop into 1st-round darlings next season, but there is a broader base of high-upside playmakers that we haven’t seen in some time. There’s a possibility that the Dolphins would only need to move up a few spots, or not at all, to secure a QB they want.

Hopefully Miami can build on last season’s successes, make a run at the postseason and leave Philly holding our low 1st-round pick. We’ll simultaneously keep an eye on San Francisco and hope for another uncharacteristically down year from them. Much remains to be seen.