Jaylen Waddle was the best receiver in the 2021 draft
Jaylen Waddle wasn’t just the best receiver in the 2021 NFL draft, he was the best receiver in all of college football and the Miami Dolphins were lucky to get him at sixth overall.
Some outlets saw it this way, but for a lot of analysts and fans (myself included), Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith were the favorites of this previous draft cycle. There were a number of reasons why it turned out that way. DeVonta Smith was fresh off a successful Heisman campaign and national championship victory in which he dominated. Ja’Marr Chase had a similarly productive season in 2019 and really impressed at his pro-day. All this went on while Jaylen Waddle nursed a broken ankle-unable to showcase his own unique skillset.
Prior to the NFL draft, I had Ja’Marr Chase as my WR1. He was the best wide receiver in 2019 and had shown some surprising physical upside at his pro day. He also didn’t have the frame concerns of the “Slim Reaper,” DeVonta Smith. After Miami selected Jaylen Waddle I did a deeper dive on who Waddle was as a player and what he could bring to Miami. Suffice to say, I was impressed. Both the film and advanced analytics point to Waddle being a really special, arguably generational, prospect.
Note: All stats in this piece that rank Waddle against Power 5 receivers or the nation are using a 30 target minimum
What makes Waddle so special?
Sometimes when we analyze prospects, we focus too much on college production. If you consult raw statistics, it doesn’t appear that Jaylen Waddle is in the same league as Ja’Marr Chase or DeVonta Smith. But when you scout a prospect, what you’re really looking for is what they can be. Typical stats (yards, receptions, touchdowns), show what a player has been, and are helpful for predicting future outcomes, but are only a piece of the puzzle.
"“So, I was like, ‘Hey look guys, Jaylen Waddle is what makes them go, alright? So we got to double Jaylen, and let DeVonta Smith beat us, Okay? He’s kind of a nice piece out there, but man, we got to take Jaylen Waddle away.’” -Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz on stopping Alabama’s offense: via Michael Bratton @Saturday Down South"
Efficiency, athleticism, and big plays are what separate Waddle from the pack and make him one of the most intriguing prospects to land in Miami in some time.
Efficiency
It might not be totally clear, but when I refer to Waddle as “efficient” it just means that he did more with each snap (on average) than his peers. There are several advanced stats that we can use to show just how efficient he was, but the best one is “points earned per route,” or PE Per Route. This is similar to EPA (expected points added), but accounts for things like offensive line play or the effectiveness of the quarterback.
To get a good idea of how efficient Waddle was, lets compare his 2020 campaign to DeVonta Smith’s 2020 Heisman winning season and Ja’Marr Chase’s legendary 2019 season.
Points earned per route
Jaylen Waddle (2020): .171
DeVonta Smith (2020): .148
Ja’Marr Chase (2019): .127
Courtesy of SIS Data Hub Pro
Just seeing the number doesn’t communicate just how dominant he was. Since SIS has been recording this stat, no one has hit Waddle’s mark. Some notable players that came close: Elijah Moore-2020 (.153), Garret Wilson-2020 (.125), Jerry Jeudy-2018 (.123), Jaylen Waddle-2018 (.123).
There’s no denying that Waddle did it on fewer targets, but he made the absolute most of those targets. His completion percentage when targeted (87.5%) led all Power 5 receivers and was far better than Smith’s in 2020 (79.1%) or Chase’s in 2019 (67.7%). By no means is that a perfect stat, as it doesn’t account for extenuating circumstances in the play. But the fact that he was leading all Power 5 receivers means that he was creating easy throws for Mac Jones and not dropping the ball.