Where to target Jaylen Waddle in fantasy leagues

With all of the hype coming out of Miami Dolphins training camp, it’s hard not to get excited about Jaylen Waddle. I know it’s prudent as Dolphins fans to dampen expectations, but it’s been a while since I’ve seen a Dolphin’s receiver look like this good.

Many ‘Phins fans play fantasy football. Along with tracking team news, fantasy owners are on the lookout for tidbits to inform their draft decisions. As an owner myself, I am wondering what a fair value is for Waddle in my standard and dynasty leagues.

In a fantasy football industry rife with confounding variables, it is hard enough as it is to project player performance, but doing so for rookies adds another level of difficulty. It’s impossible to neatly project performance from college to the NFL level. Six and seven-figure salaries across the league are predicated on talent evaluation. No one statistic or formula holds the answers.

Going off what we can see, Waddle possesses all the physical tools to be an NFL superstar: track speed, ability to almost teleport laterally, and burst in his legs to high-point the football. But being honest, everyone drafted in the top 10 has elite physical traits. The added value shines through in Waddle’s intangibles: his no-nonsense demeanor and work ethic that has impressed coaches and teammates.

In standard PPR leagues, Waddle is being drafted 105th overall (43rd WR) on average according to fantasypros.com. They also publish an Expert Consensus Ranking that aggregates rankings of industry experts. This metric has Waddle graded at 127th overall (51st WR), leading to the conclusion that fantasy owners are on average paying a premium for him.

When all is said and done, it’s only about a 9th round pick you’d need to spend to secure a player with real upside. If it doesn’t pan out this season, your season won’t be lost because of it. If you’re the type of person that likes the extra rooting interest of owning a Miami Dolphin, then absolutely grab Waddle. Given the recent and career injury history surrounding other Dolphin receivers, Waddle could be forced into a big role earlier than anticipated.

When it comes to dynasty leagues, where you own the rights to a player from now until the end of their career, the stakes are far higher. A whiff on your first pick can set you back for multiple seasons. As a result, you weigh your first-round selection with as much careful consideration as you would when buying a used car. Is it in good condition? How long do I expect to own it? Is it an impulse purchase?

On average, Waddle is currently being taken 8th overall in dynasty drafts, right behind his college teammate DeVonta Smith and just ahead of Rashod Bateman at 9. Of course, you must evaluate each player in context with other players, but for the purposes here I’ll stick to the situation in Miami.

Fantasypros.com Dynasty Average Draft Position

• Najee Harris
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Kyle Pitts
• Javonte Williams
• Travis Etienne
• Trevor Lawrence
• DeVonta Smith
• Jaylen Waddle
• Rashod Bateman
• Trey Lance

It’s imperative to take a macro-view and evaluate the team situation as much as the player. Beginning at the executive level, the franchise is in solid hands. Chris Grier and Brian Flores have players rowing in the same direction. When they have made mistakes, they have course-corrected.

The biggest indicator of a receiver’s production is his quarterback’s competence. The top-five receivers today all play with top-ten quarterbacks: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, and DK Metcalf. Furthermore, these corresponding QBs all have the elite arm strength. There’s no part of the field that’s off-limits. In the pros where throwing windows are tight, downfield throws require zip.

Tua only had one throw over 50 air-yards at Alabama, and it resulted in a pick. Most of the deep balls he did throw were aired-out for receivers to run under. Last season, he averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, 30th in the league. Look, 2020 was always going to be rough, given his hip injury and irregular offseason. Now given a full offseason to focus on building strength and perfecting mechanics (instead of rehabbing), this season will be the true litmus test.

Jaylen Waddle’s average TD catch in college was 44 yards. Completely absurd. For him to pack the home-run punch, it’s going to require Tua to maximize his potential.

Keep in mind, if all these questions were answered and Patrick Mahomes was our QB, Waddle would be a guaranteed top 4 dynasty pick. The uncertainty has him graded where he is. Regardless, he’s already the most gifted player on offense. It’s in Eric Studesville and George Godsey’s best interest to get the ball in the hands of the best player. Waddle projects to be that guy in short order.

Ultimately, I believe the ADP of 8 is a fair value for Waddle. I’d be comfortable taking him as high as 6, without it feeling like a reach.

Whether this ends up being right or wrong, at least it is refreshing to see a fantasy-relevant Miami Dolphin getting traction once again. It’s been a while.