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Predicting Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa final stat line for 2022

By Anthony Cardenas

Nov 28, 2021; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) celebrates the touchdown run of running back Myles Gaskin (not pictured) during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 28, 2021; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) celebrates the touchdown run of running back Myles Gaskin (not pictured) during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports /

Tua Tagovailoa statistical prediction: 3,720 passing yards

Tua Tagovailoa’s 204 passing yards per game was the third-lowest of any quarterback with more than 10 starts last season, finishing ahead of only Zach Wilson and Justin Fields. It is an improvement from the 181 yards per game we saw during his rookie season, but there will need to be a big spike in this category if the Dolphins’ offense hopes to be successful.

I’m here to argue that the 204-yard average from a season ago should have been a smidgen higher. If you take away the Week 2 game against Buffalo, in which Tagovailoa threw just four passes before leaving the game with an injury, the number increases somewhat drastically. Tua threw for just 13 yards in that game, heavily weighing down his average, which comes out to 220 YPG when you omit it. 220 would rank him 20th in the league instead of 29th.

So with the new weapons around him, I am predicting an increase in yards per game for Tagovailoa, though only a modest one. I’m predicting just 28 more yards per than that 220 number, putting Tua at 248 YPG. If he were to play the predicted 15 games, that total number would come out to 3,720 passing yards on the season. That modest increase per game would give Tagovailoa over 1,000 more yards than what he had in 2021.

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