NFL Week 1 betting odds: Are the Miami Dolphins the lock of the week?

Miami Dolphins. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Miami Dolphins. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images) /

The NFL season is here so it’s time to kick back with friends, eat some wings, and lock in your best bets for the week. Are the Miami Dolphins the best bet?

After a very long offseason, it feels good to say football is finally back! Last season I had an incredible run while betting on odds in NFL games, so this year I’ve decided to share my best plays each week so you can take a little cash from Vegas too.

Betting is a lot like the stock market.

 “you don’t know if it’s gonna go up, down, sideways or in f’n circles” – Matthew McConaughey 

It’s no guarantee that the monster season I pulled on the Las Vegas odd makers last year will repeat itself, if it does you can follow along for the ride, and if it goes completely south then you can fade my picks all the way to January.

Either way, you win. Let’s get started:

3rd & Juan picks of the week:

Matchup #1:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -7 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a soft rebuild and have a place holder at QB with Mitchell Trubisky, a suspect O-line and limited offensive potential don’t give them a chance to go blow for blow with the Bengals. Cincy has an improved OL, one of the best WRs in the league going into his 2nd season, and a stud at QB.

Matchup #2:

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks

The Pick: Denver Broncos -6.5

Like the first matchup, the Seattle Seahawks are in a hard rebuild, and the Denver Broncos have the best team put together since Peyton Manning was in town. Doesn’t matter how loud the 12s are cause it’ll be dead silent by halftime after the Broncos beat the living pulp out of Seattle. I really love this play, and wouldn’t mind adding on the Broncos’ -3.5 first-half spread.

Are you ready for the lock of the week?

Mike McDaniel Miami Dolphins Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
Mike McDaniel Miami Dolphins Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports /

Matchup #3: LOCK OF THE WEEK.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

The Pick: Miami Dolphins ML (-195)

I know that -195 is a horrible value for a regular bet, but this is a lock. Unearthly things and paranormal activities would have to cause this to flip because the Dolphins are a horrible matchup for the Patriots.

Pats have no OC, a bottom 5 WR core, and a defense that “gets the job done” but has been regressing steadily since their 2018 Superbowl run, and is now aged as well. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Mike Gesicki, Chase Edmonds, Cedric Wilson. The list goes on, Miami has way too much firepower to not blow New England out of the water.

“Never bet on your own team” Sorry buddy, this lock is too solid to pass up on. If you want a safe play, Dolphins ML is your go-to. But if you want better value then the regular point spread is also good in my opinion.

Regular pick: Miami Dolphins -3.5

Starting off with 3 solid picks for you all, these aren’t all of my bets for the weekend as I’m still going over stats, injury reports, and roster updates to figure out where I can gain edges on Vegas. Follow me on Twitter @3rdnJuan so you don’t miss out on new plays!

*All odds provided by*

Next. Why is the NFL underestimating the Patriots?. dark