If Miami Dolphins drafted Justin Herbert what would this week look like?

The 2020 NFL Draft was all about Joe Burrow at the top but the real intrigue came when the Miami Dolphins were on the clock at pick 5.

1. Joe Burrow
2. Chase Young
3. Jeff Okudah
4. Andrew Thomas

We can talk about what a redraft might look like and chances are, Jeff Okudah is not being drafted by the Lions. Tua or Herbert would be. We are not redrafting 2020 though. Instead, we are going to look at what an alternate universe might look like with Justin Herbert being selected over Tua Tagovailoa.

A lot of things change for the Dolphins if Miami makes a different decision at pick 5. Would the Chargers have drafted Tua at six? Many believed that the Chargers were very high on Tua and there was speculation that the Chargers were looking to jump Miami to get him in the draft. The Dolphins, apparently content to let the Chargers do whatever they wanted in that regard, held tight, possibly thinking that they would be fine with Tagovailoa or Herbert.

Before we jump in though, there was also a lot of talk post-Brian Flores that he actually wanted the Dolphins to draft Jordan Love over both of them. That narrative could have kept Flores in Miami for another year. Doesn’t matter though, Flores is gone, thankfully but maybe the Deshaun Watson talk never happened at all.

This week and every year from here to the end of Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa’s time in the NFL will be highly scrutinized simply because they went 5-6, but again, what if that 5-6 was actually turned around?

Many Dolphins fans look at Herbert as a big-armed QB with not much else to offer. Tua has the accuracy, the quick read, and reacts you like in a QB. Yes, his arm strength brings some questions that Herbert doesn’t deal with.

We can assume that there would not be as many personnel changes between the two teams had this switch happened. Flores likely would still have been fired, McDaniel hired, and the trades for Tyreek Hill, the drafting of Jaylen Waddle, and even the trade for Bradley Chubb probably still takes place.

Would Herbert be better with Miami? I don’t think Herbert wins Rookie of the Year with the Dolphins honestly. Brian Flores had the offensive unit completely messed up with his two-headed OC approach in 2021. I’m not sure Herbert plays nearly as much either, not with Ryan Fitzpatrick here in 2020.

Herbert had a great, phenomenal, rookie season but I don’t see that in Miami and I don’t see Tua having anything wonderful in Los Angeles with the Chargers. He may not go through a lot of the Flores-related garbage but Tua wasn’t perfect his rookie season as he tried to regain his confidence after his hip fracture and recovery.

In 2021, a much better side-to-side comparison, Tua probably performs better than Herbert overall because the Chargers offense was far and away better than Miami’s last season, even when Tua was on the field. Tua would have been supported much better and that would make a world of difference.

One statistic that is interesting is that in in their years so far, Herbert has been sacked 89 times compared to Tua’s 55. There is an 11-game difference. I don’t think Tua gets sacked as much in L.A. because of his release quickness but I also don’t see the offense being as fluid either.

In Miami, Herbert is just reaching his potential under Mike McDaniel and the offense is even more explosive with his big arm but I wonder if the offense is more deep and one-sided?

To be honest, I don’t think the Dolphins would be much different with Herbert or Tua and I don’t see the Chargers being any better or worse. The reality, in my opinion, is that both players are close to being elite, top 5-10 in the NFL. My only concern between the two comes down to longevity.

With Herbert, I see a QB that has a big frame and can take a hit. He is the prototype QB that used to permeate the NFL landscape in the 1980s and 1990s. A similar style of QB to Dan Marino and Dan Fouts. I see a long future with him in the NFL.

I don’t think that Tua is brittle or one concussion away from not playing again but I think that Tua still has to learn to not allow his body to take hits because his frame isn’t going to absorb them year to year over a long career. Another concern I would have with Tua is his shoulder. Will it hold up for 10 years of throwing the ball deep? Tua doesn’t have the elite arm strength, that’s not a knock, just a reality. Could he develop shoulder issues down the road? Maybe, it’s happened before.

This is something we say in Chad Pennington. An accurate quarterback with average arm strength. His shoulder didn’t hold up.

To be honest, I don’t see much difference between the two and there is plenty of room for both in the NFL. It’s a great unspoken rivalry that is more NFL and social media made than anything between the two. But over the next ten years, we will see more and learn more about both of them.

Will the Dolphins regret not drafting Herbert? Probably no more than the Chargers will ever regret not jumping over Miami to get Tua. This should remain a classic fight between two really good quarterbacks with different skillsets. I think what is really interesting about both of them is that I don’t see the Chargers being much different with Tua anymore than I see Miami being much different with Herbert.