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Dolphins vs. Bills prediction and odds for NFL wild card round (Believe in the Fins)

By Iain MacMillan

Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) after catching the football during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) after catching the football during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports /
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It was almost an all-time collapse for the Miami Dolphins, who were on the verge of missing the playoffs after starting the season with an 8-3 record.

Thankfully, they down the New York Jets by a final score of 11-6 and have advanced to the postseason.

The bad news is they have to face the Bills in Buffalo in the wild card round of the playoffs.

But, let me be the first to tell you that you shouldn’t count out Miami. The Dolphins are a better team than the public is giving them credit for. Tua Tagovailoa’s status is still up in the air, but if he plays, the Dolphins are live dogs this weekend.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills odds, spread, and total

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills betting trends

  • Dolphins are 1-8 straight up in last nine games against Bills
  • The OVER is 6-1 in the Dolphins’ last seven road games
  • Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against AFC East opponents
  • The OVER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two teams
  • Bills are 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills prediction and pick

There’s no doubt that there’s four teams above the rest in the NFL heading into the postseason. If you look at the stat called net yards per play, then it proves that fact. The top four teams in that metric are the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills and 49ers.

But, coming in at fifth in the NFL in net yards per play, is the Miami Dolphins at +0.8. They’re also second in that stat over each team’s last three games at +1.5.

Sure, everyone wants to talk about Tua and his status, but let’s not overlook how well the Dolphins defense has been playing. Over their last three games, the Dolphins are allowing the second fewest yards per play, at 4.2, while also allowing only 18.3 points per game.

And before you starting thinking “oh, but the Dolphins won’t be able to play in the Buffalo weather”, let’s not forget that they give the Bills everything they could handle just a few weeks ago, taking them down to the wire and eventually losing 32-29.

If Tua plays in this game, it’s certainly going to help the Dolphins’ chances, but if he doesn’t the Dolphins are still a strong play to cover the double-digit spread.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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