Phin Phanatic
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Why the Miami Dolphins could win the AFC East despite Vegas odds

By Jonathan Smith

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - JANUARY 8: Raheem Mostert #31 of the Miami Dolphins carries the ball during the first quarter of an NFL football game against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium on January 8, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - JANUARY 8: Raheem Mostert #31 of the Miami Dolphins carries the ball during the first quarter of an NFL football game against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium on January 8, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images) /
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Anytime it is announced that a player like Aaron Rodgers is on the move people and sports books in Las Vegas take note and adjust odds. So of course, the Miami Dolphins will finish third.

Obviously when you go from playing a guy like Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers your odds to win anything and everything go up.

The New York Jets had been the second favorite to win the AFC East for most of the offseason. The various sports books in Vegas were anticipating them trading for Rodgers.

The Buffalo Bills have been the favorite since day one.

On Monday the Miami Dolphins were +450 on one betting site, to win the division next year. Today, after Rodgers announced he wanted to play for the Jets next year, both the Jets and Dolphins odds were up from Monday.

The Jets went from +300 to +270, and the Dolphins went from +450 to +370.

Why?

The only major additions for the Dolphins since Monday would be the resigning of Jeff Wilson Jr., Raheem Mostert, and the trade for Jalen Ramsey.

Those are important moves for the Dolphins. The running back room was basically empty before they resigned Mostert and Wilson Jr. They will probably be the two main running backs next year.

Jalen Ramsey is obviously a huge addition for the Dolphins, but cornerbacks usually do not impact betting lines.

So why would the Dolphins odds go up? Why would their odds be better after bringing in one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL into their division?

I have a theory as to why the Dolphins’ odds to win their division increased.

The Aaron Rodgers tax.

The Jets have to trade for Rodgers still.

I am no NFL general manager, but I can tell you that the price for one of the best quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL is high.

Adam Schefter reported that the Jets want a similar package that the Detroit Lions received for Matthew Stafford.

The Lions received two first round picks, a third round pick, and Jared Goff.

That was for a quarterback who is not as good as Aaron Rodgers.

What if the Jets have to give up multiple firsts, a third, and Carl Lawson or Garrett Wilson?

If the Jets have to give up multiple good pieces, then obviously the roster around Rodgers would not be as good. We have seen Rodgers fall short of expectations with a good roster around him in Green Bay.

Now he is going to play in a tougher division with a worse roster. It would make sense or Vegas not to like that situation.

Meanwhile, Vegas has seen the Dolphins make the playoffs with their quarterback missing 4 games.

The Bills are still the rightful favorite to win the division. The Dolphins and Jets though have more than enough talent to take the division from them, but if I had to pick the Jets or Dolphins to do it, I would take the Dolphins.

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