Phin Phanatic
FanSided

Be prepared, Tua Tagovailoa could regress this upcoming season

By Jonathan Smith

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 25: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins recovers a fumble during the first quarter of the game against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 25: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins recovers a fumble during the first quarter of the game against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

Sportsbook odds are always telling. The Miami Dolphins are currently predicted to finish third according to FanDuel. Tua Tagovailoa could be the reason.

Their odds to win the division are +290. They are behind the New York Jets who are at +250, and the Buffalo Bills are the betting favorite at +130.

Free agency is basically over with all of the big-impact players having signed deals. The NFL Draft is the Dolphins’ last chance to add talent to their roster. They only have four picks, and rookies rarely impact odds in Vegas unless they are quarterbacks. The Dolphins’ odds should not move much, if at all.

The Dolphins roster and coaching staff, I would like to think measures up to both the Bills and the Jets, but obviously there is something some betting sites do not like.

Does Vegas think that Tua will get hurt again? Do they think that he is not as good as Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers?

Is there a pattern I am missing?

What is it about this Dolphins team that has the smart people at FanDuel thinking they will finish third in the division?

ORCHARD PARK, NY – DECEMBER 17: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins reacts after a play during an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 17, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
ORCHARD PARK, NY – DECEMBER 17: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins reacts after a play during an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 17, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images) /

It is not the coaching. With the addition of Vic Fangio, the Dolphins have as good of a coaching staff as any team in the NFL.

It is Tua, and a possible pattern we have seen happen in San Francisco.

I know that Dolphins fans do not like it when people attack Tua, so let me start by saying this is not an attack on him. It is the truth. Tua is not as good as Allen or Rodgers. It is hard to win any division when you have the third-best quarterback in the division.

I also think there is a chance that he regresses this year. Tua is better than, but he is a similar quarterback to Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo has been beneficent of playing under offensive guru Kyle Shanahan.

Garoppolo’s first full season under Shanahan was in 2019 when they lost in the Super Bowl. That was the best season of his career by far.

That year he posted career highs in touchdown passes, passing yards, and completion percentage, and he had a record of 13-3.

A large part of Garoppolo’s success was the system that he was in under Shanahan. It could be the same thing with Tua.

McDaniel came in last year and introduced a quarterback-friendly system. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle ran free over the middle all year long. This made the game easy for Tua, which is okay.

I do not want McDaniel’s greatness to take away from how good Tua is, but how good was he when the system was not quarterback friendly?

He was not good.

It took an entire system change for us to see the best of Tua. For quarterbacks like Allen and Rodgers, the system does not matter. For Tua it does.

Tua could be a top-of-the-line system quarterback. If that ends up being true, then there is no way the Dolphins can win the AFC East if both Allen and Rodgers are present.

I could be wrong, which is what I am hoping, but this is part of why the Dolphins are not projected to win the division next year.

We are going to learn a lot about Tua when the season starts. I hope I am wrong, but I am cautious of how he is going to perform this next year.

Home/Tua Tagovailoa