3 advanced stats that may foreshadow Malik Willis' raging success as Dolphins QB

The Miami Dolphins have at least one reason to believe that they could surprise a lot of people this season. When you have the quarterback right, it can mask a lot of other problems. Malik Willis is that beacon of hope Miami fans should cling to — and for good reason.

Willis spent the last two years in Green Bay, where his new head coach, Jeff Hafley, was the defensive coordinator, and his new GM, Jon-Eric-Sullivan, was in the front office.

Hafley and Sullivan spent plenty of time around the uber-talented quarterback. They invested a three-year contract in him this offseason despite Willis registering a grand total of 74 carries and 155 passing attempts to date in his NFL career.

If that's not reason enough to get amped about Willis' potential, just look at his production and advanced stats as proof that he'll be a major success story in Miami one way or another.

Willis' small sample size shouldn't shrink expectations for 2026 season

Malik's pressure to sack percentage plummeted year-over-year in Green Bay

The 2024 campaign was a bit of a red flag in the sense that Malik Willis took eight sacks on only 23 QB pressures by PFF's count (34.8%). This past year, that number plummeted to three sacks on 23 pressured dropbacks (13%).

Willis became more adept at maneuvering in the pocket and was more decisive when he took off to use his legs on scrambles. That's a pretty strong combination to suggest he may be able to take another step forward in that department in his maiden season with the Fins.

Last season saw Willis' depth of target and accuracy skyrocket

After averaging 7.5 air yards per target in 2024, Willis pumped that number up to a 9.7-yard average depth of target. That matched Lamar Jackson and bested Drake Maye (9.5).

Yes, the sample size is small, but it's not like Willis was dinking and dunking his way down the field. This man was big-play hunting and hitting darn near every moving target he looked at. He completed 40 of 54 passes two seasons ago (74.1%), and in his final year in Green Bay, he connected on a ridiculous 30 of 35 pass attempts (85.7%).

Haters/whataboutists will say that opponents didn't have enough film on him, or that he just caught fire and it was a fluke. My rebuttal: If not for an onside kick recovery, Willis and the Packers beat the Chicago Bears in that game and slide ahead in the NFC North. Who knows the ripple effect from there?

And then the following week, Willis accounted for 348 yards and three total TDs, only to see the Baltimore Ravens, sans Lamar, run for 307 yards and four TDs in a 41-24 win. The Ravens were still in the hunt for the AFC North crown.

These weren't some low-stakes, nothing-burger games in September. These were high-leverage moments with massive playoff implications. Willis was cool as could be under pressure.

Malik The Freak is the EPA king since 2024

Thanks in part to his elite running ability and a stunning improvement as a pocket passer that seems to only grow with each passing year, Malik Willis bests his ex-Packers superior Jordan Love and every other QB in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback:

This stat is designed to factor in all the extenuating circumstances of any given play and aims to assess how much a player — in this instance, the quarterback — has an impact on said play.

Here's a timely explanation of the EPA stat from SumerSports host Lindsay Rhodes, via Yahoo Sports:

"EPA per play will reflect, all the things that we're looking for here, decision-making, accuracy, ability to generate explosives, efficiency. Are you leading your team on scoring drives? Are you not taking sacks? Are you not turning the ball over? All of those things are essentially taken into account in that number."

So in other words, Willis was about as consistent, explosive, and productive as you'd want a quarterback to be in his last two seasons of action. Whether that translates into elevating a Dolphins roster full of underdogs or results in a shocking run to the playoffs in 2026 remains to be seen.

What isn't a stretch by, well, any stretch of the imagination is the notion that Malik Willis, at only 27 years old, really does have about a decade-long run in him to be a high-end starting quarterback if his current trajectory holds.

Who's to say Willis won't get even better with more reps?

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