5 things you need to know about the Dolphins vs. 49ers in Week 16

Miami Dolphins v Houston Texans
Miami Dolphins v Houston Texans | Cooper Neill/GettyImages

If the Miami Dolphins are going to return to the playoffs for the third straight year, Mike McDaniel's 6-8 team is going to need an awful lot of help.

There are only three open spots remaining in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, and Kansas City Chiefs have all clinched division titles. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have wrapped up playoff berths. The Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), and Denver Broncos (9-6) have both won nine games.

Do the math. The 'Fins would have to run the table to get to nine victories. It starts this week as the team plays its final regular-season home game against the 6-8 San Francisco 49ers.

All-Time Series Record

These interconference foes clash for the third time in five seasons. The Dolphins are hosting this series for the first time since 2016, however, the 49ers last visited Hard Rock Stadium in 2019 when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV (a 31-20) loss.

Despite their 38-16 setback in Super Bowl XIX at Palo Alto, Miami still owns a one-game lead (8-7) in the overall standings. Two seasons ago, Kyle Shanahan's club rolled to a 33-17 win. The last time the 'Fins hosted the Niners, they came up with a 31-24 triumph in 2016.

Quarterbacks: Tale of the Tape

It's been a rough year for Niners signal-caller Brock Purdy. A loaded offense from a season ago has been problem-plagued throughout 2024. Nonetheless, his completion percentage is 65.0, down from 69.4 a season ago. Purdy has thrown just 15 TD passes in 13 outings, and guilty of 12 of the team's 21 turnovers. San Francisco's offensive unit has produced only 30 touchdowns in 14 outings, a big disappointment.

Tua Tagovailoa's overall numbers since his return in Week 8 may look somewhat impressive, but this imbalanced offense hasn't been striking fear into many opponents. During this eight-game stretch, he's thrown for 2,169 yards, 16 TDs, and four picks. However, he's been sacked 17 times, fumbled six times, and lost two of those miscues. Tagovailoa comes off a four-turnover outing in last Sunday's loss at Houston.

Defensive Analysis

A year ago, the Niners finished eighth in the league in total defense, and only two clubs were stingier vs. the run. The club gave up only 30 offensive touchdowns during the regular season, and only the Ravens and Chiefs allowed fewer points (298). Just 14 games into this season, San Francisco has allowed 36 offensive TDs and 320 points. More than one-third of those points (125) have come in the fourth quarter.

You could argue that the Dolphins' defense has done its share this season. The rankings in terms of yards allowed would help the argument. Only five teams in the league have given up fewer yards than Anthony Weaver's unit, and Miami's ranks eighth in the NFL vs. the run and the pass. But this group has been a bit inconsistent at best. The 'Fins gave up a season-low 181 total yards in last week's 20-12 loss at Houston.

Keys to the Game

49ers: Shanahan has shown that regardless of who's in the backfield, he will find a way to run the ball. The Dolphins' defense can be had on the ground despite the ranking, especially if a team is relentless when it comes to grinding it out. Entering Week 16, the Niners have managed 28.1 running plays per game. That ranked ninth in the league, and Shanahan's ground attack averages 133.5 yards per outing.

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Dolphins: Perhaps it's time for Weaver's defense to throw the kitchen sink at an opponent. Desperate times call for desperate measures. A year ago, the Dolphins were mediocre in terms of defensive rankings but did manage to come up with 27 takeaways thanks in large part to 56 sacks. This season, there have been 28 QB traps and the club has forced only 12 turnovers. Could Weaver take some chances early?

Dolphins Player to Watch

It would somehow be a bit fitting if one-time 49ers running back Raheem Mostert has a big game against his former club. Ironically, he was a member of Shanahan's club the last time the club played a game in South Florida. In the Niners' loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, Mostert totaled 12 carries for 58 yards in his club's 31-20 setback.

Keep in mind that the Dolphins have gone six straight games without rushing for at least 100 yards. It's the longest stretch by the club since a seven-game streak in 2019. That Miami team set a franchise record for fewest rushing yards in a season. As for this year's Dolphins, they have become far too one-dimensional on offense—relying on Tagovailoa to nibble his way down the field. The big play has disappeared from the 'Fins attack. Will McDaniel exploit the NFL's 15th-ranked rushing defense?

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