The Miami Dolphins know, deep down, what most fans already know about Tua Tagovailoa. His time with the team is likely coming to an end in 2026. The Dolphins can't swing his contract, and that's OK, but the worst thing they can do is to go about their business like he isn't part of the problem.
Tagovailoa would probably come in around the fifth biggest problem on the team. Next April, the Dolphins need to find his replacement. The latest mock draft from Pro Football Focus has done precisely that.
PFF has the Dolphins selecting South Florida native Fernando Mendoza fourth overall. If the draft fell this way, it would be incredibly fortuitous for Miami.
"Indiana is eying a Big Ten title and a top spot in the College Football Playoff, and Mendoza is a big reason why. His 3.7% big-time throw rate this season and 2.9% clip last season are on the lower side, but he has starting NFL tools, specifically his complete arm talent," writes Trevor Sikkema of PFF.
Tua Tagovailoa's eventual replacement will be debated often between now and the next draft
PFF has quarterback Ty Simpson of Alabama going to the New Orleans Saints at No. 1, and Oregon's Dante Moore going third to the New York Jets.
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It will be interesting to see how this first round pans out for quarterbacks. As the college season progresses, there still isn't a "can't-miss" prospect in this class. PFF has only three QBs in Round 1. Several other QBs, including Penn State's Drew Allar, who is injured, and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, are considered late- and mid-round picks.
The Dolphins would be smart to draft a first-round quarterback if the right one is available. The fact that Tagovailoa is still under contract and his year-to-year dead cap hit doesn't come into Miami's favor until after next year means they can afford to wait if the quarterback they want is available.
The question is whether they will wait if Mendoza falls to them.
On paper, this is a solid selection for Miami, but there are a lot more games to go before we pencil them in as a top-five drafting team next year. Miami has four winnable games in its next seven, including contests against the Saints and Jets.