The loss to the Raiders in Week 1 wasn't nearly as bad as many have made it out to be. The Miami Dolphins created their own misery and, in the process, gave the Raiders more opportunities to win than they should have.
Following the game, the Dolphins once again found themselves as the focus of NFL Draft conversations.
ESPN is tracking each team's week-to-week performances. That will give them a percentage of where each team sits in next year's draft. It's like a reverse power ranking, and as expected, the Dolphins have the best odds of picking first overall.
ESPN's latest NFL Draft projections put the Miami Dolphins at 97% at a top 10 draft pick
I have to say, the ESPN projection numbers are not shocking, but they are also quite interesting. ESPN is using its "Football Power Index" to determine weekly draft order changes. They will use AI to run through every team's remaining schedule with a predictive win or loss, thus anchoring each team to a draft slot.
With the conclusion of Week 1, the formula ran the next 17 weeks of games and determined what each team's percentage would be. For Miami, they start off at number one.
- Average draft position - 2.9 (Based on simulations)
- Chance at number one pick - 38% (The Browns are 2 with 25%)
- Chance of pick in the top 5 - 87%
- Chane of picking in the top 10 - 97%
The Dolphins are not generating much buzz around the NFL, and apparently even less among ESPN's simulations. What's worse is that there is no way to argue with the simulation's results.
Miami's best chance at an early victory was the Raiders, and they weren't up to the task. They have the 49ers on the road this week, home against the Chiefs in Week 3, travel to Minnesota to play the Vikings in Week 4, then come home to face the Bengals before getting a Week 6 bye.
As part of the season predictions, many had Miami winning three to five games this year, but the Raiders were a universal choice for one of them. So were the Jets, who beat the Titans easily in Week 1.
Could they realistically go winless this year? Ryan Fitzpatrick predicted that could happen if they lost to the Raiders, but Vegas betting odds still have Miami winning 3-5 games. It's just hard to find them right now.
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