The Miami Dolphins made the bold move this week to bench quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in favor of seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers, signaling that the former may have played his last down for the franchise. Having his worst season yet, it's more clear now than ever that Tua is not the franchise QB that Miami had hoped he could be when they drafted him in 2020.
Yet, he wasn't the Dolphins' first choice leading up to the 2020 NFL Draft. In fact, one of the leading NFL insiders is now reporting that Miami made a blockbuster offer to the Cincinnati Bengals to move up to No. 1 overall to draft Joe Burrow.
Bengals declined Miami Dolphins' offer of 4 first-round picks in 2020 to draft Joe Burrow
One day before Ewers' first career start, ESPN insider Adam Schefter reported that league sources informed the company that the Dolphins offered the Bengals four first-round picks to move up to No. 1 to take Burrow back in 2020. However, Cincinnati "declined to even engage in discussions," and nothing ever materialized further.
The timing of this report is awfully suspicious. Tua has just been benched, and Burrow has made some comments recently that have fueled speculation that he isn't happy in Cincinnati. But despite the "coincidental" timing, it's a blockbuster report of a blockbuster trade offer. And had the Bengals entertained the offer, the NFL may have flipped upside down.
We can speculate in several directions on how this could have played out had Burrow landed in Miami, but it's a mostly useless exercise.
In reality, Dolphins fans would have likely reacted in the moment naturally that it would have been a steep price to pay to move up just four spots from No. 5 overall. And who knows if they would have felt differently by the present day.
In this butterfly-effect scenario, the Dolphins wouldn't have had the ammunition to trade for elite wide receiver Tyreek Hill or draft Jaylen Waddle in 2021. And given former general manager Chris Grier's drafting history, I'm not confident he would have found any gems to help in that area.
Today, we can definitively say Burrow is better than Tua, but if he were in Miami, who would he have been throwing to these past few seasons? Knowing Grier, I'd gather that we, the fans, would be more worried about the WR situation than he would have been.
If I had to guess at a hypothetical of Burrow in Miami, I think the Dolphins would be in a similar situation as they are today on the field. Specifically, I think they'd still be in search of their first playoff win in 25 years.
Burrow would likely still show that he's a better player than Tagovailoa, but without guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins or Hill/Waddle to throw to, the Dolphins' offense -- and the team -- would probably be mediocre at best. And similar to his drafting, I have a hard time believing Grier could have hit on key free agents to fill any kind of void.
Off the field, things would have likely been drastically different. For starters, Brian Flores would have backed Burrow as his quarterback, unlike he did with Tua, and his tenure as Miami's head coach probably would've been longer, if not still ongoing (not likely with my theory that the Dolphins would still be without a playoff win in 25 years).
There is also the possibility that Grier is still the GM if Burrow gets drafted by the Dolphins. Yes, I see a scenario where the Dolphins still don't win in the postseason, but Burrow would have been deemed the "right" pick, and that may have been enough for owner Stephen Ross to keep his longtime general manager.
Declining Miami's trade offer may not have been wise by Bengals
Burrow is certainly better than Tagovailoa, but that doesn't necessarily mean declining the Dolphins' offer of four first-round picks was the right call by Cincinnati. Instinctively, I'd say it wasn't.
The Bengals organization has had a reputation for many years of being a team that doesn't make deals. They've recently swayed from this mildly, but Cincinnati still isn't actively known in the trade market. On this occasion, it may have cost them.
As mentioned, if the Bengals had accepted the Dolphins' offer, they would have picked just four spots down -- and would have had a plethora of multiple first-round selections for the next few years to go with it.
Again, thinking hypothetically, one must believe the Bengals would have passed on Tua at No. 5 in favor of Justin Herbert. With Herbert under center, it's very possible that the Bengals' offense could be just as dangerous with him throwing to Chase and Higgins. And with a ton of picks to go with it, maybe they could have drafted a few defensive players in the process to help them keep teams under 30 points.
For the most part, Herbert has also been healthier than both Burrow and Tua. Burrow has missed nine games this season to this point, and the Bengals have already been eliminated from postseason contention.
Nevertheless, as is often the case with reports like these, we're simply left wondering "what if?" What we do know is that the Dolphins are ready to move on from Tua and that Burrow may no longer be happy in Cincy. Maybe a deal back in 2020 should've taken place after all.