Mandatory minicamp is almost here and the latest talking point surrounding the Miami Dolphins is when and if Tyreek Hill will be ending his career in South Florida or not. Jaylen Waddle got his big long-term extension, which looks like a steal based on what Justin Jefferson landed.
We all know Tua Tagovailoa and his quest to become the latest $50 million per year man is ongoing, but the player getting the most attention right now is Hill. Since the speedster arrived in Miami, he has been nothing short of spectacular.
He's put together back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons, which is the first time that has ever happened. He's the focal point of every defensive gameplan and yet he still gets behind defenses and scares the life out of defensive coordinators. But even before Jefferson's record-breaking deal, Tyreek has made it known to the Dolphins that he wants to be taken care of.
Now that the Justin Jefferson deal is done, I spoke to Drew Rosenhaus about getting his client, Tyreek Hill, more money to put him back in line with the top-5 highest paid at his position. @DrewJRosenhaus saying, “ I have a fluid line of communication with Chris Grier and Brandon… pic.twitter.com/Gx53yj69Qv
— Josh Moser (@TheMozKnowz) June 3, 2024
The Dolphins are well aware of what Hill wants and even Adam Schefter believes that a deal, like we as fans want to happen, will get done at some point. It seems like some classic GM magic will be occurring when Chris Grier and Brandon Shore shuffle money around from one spot and send it over to Hill.
Bleacher Report conjured up this figure of what Tyreek Hill might be able to get out of Miami.
💰 Tyreek Hill is projected to sign a 4yr/$140m contract extension, including $85m guaranteed, per @BleacherReport #GoFins pic.twitter.com/68U8rb6l6z
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) June 3, 2024
That makes sense in today's NFL with the caliber of player that Hil is. When this will happen is anyone's guess. It could happen in a week, a month, or in December. Who knows? What I do know is that it is highly unlikely that Hill will leave Miami. Here's why:
3. Tyreek Hill will not have it better than in Mike McDaniel's offense
Hill, over the last two seasons, has 341 targets. That puts him second in total targets, surprisingly, to DaVante Adams, who didn't make the most of many of those. We all know the goal that Hill had of trying to be the first receiver to get to 2,000 yards receiving this past year, which was something he nearly accomplished.
Many people weren't a huge fan of the idea of force-feeding the ball to one player, and it turned out to catch up to Hill, who eventually got hurt late in the year and wasn't the same after. Regardless of how Hill's season ended in 2023, he knows that Mike McDaniel can't help himself from drawing up plays to keep getting him the ball.
That, and McDaniel has Tagovailoa trained to focus on Hill. Again, not something any of us truly like, but it is the reality we currently live in. Maybe that will change this year. It seems impossible that Hill would get as many targets anywhere else, so it stands as a good reason that the All-Pro WR would want to stay in Miami.
2. Tyreek Hill has a lot of love for the Dolphins and Florida
This is something I've been workshopping for a little bit, but the idea of living and playing for a team in a no income tax state is more important to players than it was years ago. States like Florida, Texas, Nevada, and, of course, Delaware, have operated without income tax for years, and players are aware of that.
However, it feels like that detail is more important, and it is one that matters more when players are in free agency or dictating where they're going. Not only that, but specifically, South Beach, where Hill lives, is a paradise compared to those other states, including Delaware. Warm weather isn't the end all be all, but there isn't anyone who will convince me that Hill or any other player, given the option, would go play in Detroit, Buffalo, Chicago, or Baltimore over the sunshine in Florida.
He did the cold life in Kansas City, meaning I would bet he isn't looking to do that again at this point in his career, especially with the status he has of being the best receiver in the game. Hill is built for Miami and he knows that.
1. Losing Tyreek Hill wouldn't be the end of the world for Miami
Did I catch you off-guard with this one? That wasn't the plan, but I do think the Dolphins would be fine if Hill decided the money wasn't good enough and that he was going to end his career elsewhere else. There is no replacing someone like Cheetah. You can't teach what he has and you can't instill fear into defenses like he does. The amount of time defenses have to plan for him every week is time you can't get back.
However, the Dolphins have the ability to keep on clicking in different ways. Perhaps they would be even more of a running team? Without Hill, naturally, the ball would get distributed to more players instead of getting funneled to one guy. Yes, Waddle would be featured more, which is something he can handle. With that said, other players would be brought in and asked to shoulder more of the load, thus leading to a more balanced offense.
We haven't seen it yet, but something tells me if Mike McDaniel was tasked with selecting a receiver high in the draft, he would pinpoint the player or players that would work the best in his scheme, and he would have a good shot of hitting on that receiver.
Financially, the flexibility of having Hill off the books would be wildly interesting. In the movie Moneyball, when Pete is telling Billy in the parking garage that taking Johnny Damon off the payroll is a good thing because it opens the team up for all kinds of interesting possibilities, that's how life would be for the Dolphins with Hill suddenly gone.
Of course, they would have to hit on the guys brought in to replace Hill and be smart where they allocate the money to other positions. The expectation, like Schefter said, is that Hill will remain with Miami for a few more years. They will give him some form of revamped extension that gets more guaranteed money and it will be very likely he retires a Miami Dolphin. However, if for some weird reason it doesn't happen, it shouldn't result in everyone panicking.

