Best NFL prop bets for Dolphins vs. Chargers in NFL Week 1 (How to beat Staley)

The Miami Dolphins lost to the Chargers in Week 14 of last season, 23-17 and Tua only completed 10 passes.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1)
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Football is back. I’m not sure what you did with all of your time off, but I do know that Tua Tagovailoa learned judo this offseason and added a little weight too.

Tua is ready to lead Mike McDaniels explosive offense and the Miami Dolphins all season, but just in case they added Mike White as insurance. After making the playoffs last year, the Dolphins will open the year against another team that made a first round postseason exit, the LA Chargers. 

Miami could have had Justin Herbert, but now they have Judo Tua, so the sky’s the limit. Let’s get into a couple of prop bets, but first check out this promo from the FanDuel Sportsbook so you never have to miss a Dolphins game no matter where you are. 

Just click the link below to sign up and deposit $5, then place a bet on this matchup to collect $200 win or lose, plus $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket, so you never miss a moment this NFL season. 

Best NFL Prop Bets for Dolphins vs. Chargers

  • Raheem Mostert Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
  • Durham Smythe Over 1.5 Receptions
  • Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion Over 38.5 Yards

Raheem Mostert Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

Tua’s best ability in the passing game is his timing, so last year when these team’s met, Brandon Staley did everything he could to throw that off. Staley had his corners in press coverage on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with his inside linebackers playing a very deep drop to take away the deep middle of the field. That defense forced Tua to complete just 10/28 passes for 145 yards and I assume he’ll go back to that type of set up in this matchup. 

So, these three props are all about ways that Mike McDaniel can counter this, starting with the run game. McDaniel was originally the run-game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan, so he’s no stranger to a run-first approach and while I don't think he’ll go that far, I do think Mostert will have a great Week 1. This is the only week when we can guarantee that he’s healthy. 

Durham Smythe Over 1.5 Receptions

The other option that McDaniel has is to throw to his tight ends. Mike Gesicki is gone but he didn’t have much use in their offense last season. Smythe isn’t quite the pass-catcher, more of a blocking option, but I think bigger personnel will be a key to beating Staley’s defense and from that Smythe will be on the field enough to catch two balls. The short middle of the field will be open with linebackers taking very deep drops. 

Tua Tagovailoa long completion over 38.5 yards

The third and most enticing option for McDaniel is to just go over the top. Sure, the press corners are accompanied by two deep safeties, but McDaniel is smart enough to flood one side with the speed of Hill and Waddle and get somebody open deep. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change