Cowboys vs. Dolphins prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 16

A full betting preview for the Miami Dolphins' Week 16 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.

Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs
Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins are embarking on a tough three-game stretch that begins on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. Miami is coming off a 30-0 blowout win over the New York Jets, keeping them in the running for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Sunday's game against the Cowboys will not be easy as the Dolphins are 0-3 this season against playoff-caliber teams (Kansas City, Buffalo, and Philadelphia). Miami opened up as 1.5-point home favorites over the Cowboys, who are now a road underdog for fourth time this season.

Below, we will break down this highly-anticipated Week 16 matchup and give our best bet!

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Cowboys vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread and Total

Cowboys vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Cowboys are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in their past five games vs. AFC opponents
  • Miami is 5-2 ATS at home this season
  • The UNDER is 8-2 in the Dolphins’ last 10 games against Dallas

Cowboys vs. Dolphins Injury Reports

Cowboys Injury Report

  • Malik Hooker - S - Questionable
  • Johnathan Hankins - DT - Questionable
  • Zack Martin - G - Questionable

Dolphins Injury Report

  • Tyreek Hill - WR - Questionable
  • Jevon Holland - S - Questionable
  • Xavien Howard - CB - Questionable
  • Robert Hunt - OT - Questionable
  • DeShon Elliott - S - Questionable

Cowboys vs. Dolphins How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
  • Game Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • Cowboys Record: 10-4
  • Dolphins Record: 10-4

Cowboys vs. Dolphins Key Players to Watch

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott: Prescott struggled mightily in last week’s blowout loss to the Bills. The veteran quarterback completed 61.8% of his passes for a season-low 134 yards and an interception. 

Prescott was under a lot of pressure from the Bills’ defense, which sacked him three times and had seven quarterbacks. This season, Prescott hasn’t played well on the road (63.2% for 1,514 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions), but that must change quickly.

Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle: No Tyreek Hill, no problem for the Dolphins’ offense as Waddle went off for a season-high 142 receiving yards and a touchdown in last week’s 30-0 win over the Jets. Miami will need more explosive plays from Waddle on Sunday against this Cowboys’ defense, which has an excellent cornerback duo in Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland.

Cowboys vs. Dolphins Prediction and Pick

The Cowboys haven’t had the best of luck on the road this season (3-4 record). Their three road wins were against the Chargers, Panthers, and Giants – three teams who will not be in the playoffs this season. Meanwhile, three out of their four losses (Eagles, Bills, and 49ers) have come against playoff teams.

The Bills’ rushing attack gashed the Cowboys’ run defense last week, posting 266 yards and three touchdowns. That’s not a good sign heading into Sunday’s game against the Dolphins’ rushing offense, which averages 5.1 yards per attempt (first in the NFL) and 139.6 yards per game (fourth in the league) this season.

Therefore, if the Dolphins can get their rushing attack going with Raheem Mostert and DeVon Achane, it will open up the passing game for Tua Tagovailoa and the receivers. Tagovailoa played well last week against the Jets (21/24 for 224 yards and a TD) after not throwing a touchdown in Week 14 against the Titans.

Miami needs Tagovailoa to be efficient on Sunday, as the Cowboys’ defense is ranked fourth in passing yards per game allowed (176.9) and third in opponent passing completion percentage (59.6). 

The Dolphins are in the same boat as the Cowboys in that people are skeptical that they can beat playoff-caliber teams, which they haven’t done this season (0-3 vs. KC, PHI, BUF). However, I’ll give Miami the edge on Sunday as they are 6-1 at home and outscoring opponents by 19.4 points per game (second-highest behind Dallas) this season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.