Dolphins draft: 1st round NFL Draft position "hit" rates should steer Grier to this group

Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier walks on the
Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier walks on the / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

A recent calculation of all the first-round NFL Draft picks has been compiled and the hit-and-miss rations favor the Dolphins' Chris Grier.

ESPN producer Paul Hembo compiled a list of every first-round pick from 2000-2019. Each player position was ranked with a "hit" or "miss" percentage based on a second contract being signed by the drafting team.

The top position that graded with an incredible 92% hit rate is center. This indicates that 98% of the centers drafted in a 20-year span stuck with their team for a second contract. This would include Dolphins Mike Pouncey who remained with the Dolphins beyond his rookie deal.

Miami could use more help at center and perhaps a guard/center combination would work well for Chris Grier. The second best position is offensive tackle and Grier did a decent job getting Austin Jackson who was extended last season.

The third-ranked position is guard. Interestingly enough, the guard is not a position that Grier spends first-round capital on. He may want to rethink that this year, and again a G/C option or a G/T option wouldn't be a bad investment and clearly the percentage of hits vs. misses is in his favor. This year's class is one of the better classes in the last few years.

Offensive tackle has a 59% re-sign rate while guards have a 50% re-sign rate.

Coming in next are the positions that graded out below 50% but higher than 39%. This is where we find first-round linebackers at 48%, QBs at 46%, edge rushers at 44%, and defensive tackles at 40%.

Those positions ranking lower than 39%? Cornerback, 38%, running back, 38%, safety, 34%, tight end, 33%, and wide receivers round it out with the worst hit percentage at 27%.

Since becoming the Dolphins general manager, Chris Grier's first-round picks have looked like this.

  • Laremy Tunsil
  • Charles Harris
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick
  • Christian Wilkins
  • Tua Tagovailoa
  • Austin Jackson
  • Noah Igbinoghene
  • Jaylen Waddle

Looking at this from the Paul Hembo chart, Miami was up against a wall with Iginoghene (38% hit rate across the NFL) but hit on the lowest-scored position, WR, with Waddle.

It is something to keep in mind and obviously, there are a lot of exceptions that will go into it but it is an interesting blueprint that Grier should use this year, in other words, don't draft a cornerback in round one!