Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Wild Card Weekend

Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) carries the ball on
Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) carries the ball on / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins let the AFC East slip through their fingers, but they have a chance to right their wrongs over the next few weeks. They'll begin their road to Super Bowl 58 by taking on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead.

If you want to find out my best bet for all six NFL Wild Card games, check out this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".

The Dolphins are set as underdogs in their rematch against the Chiefs, but may just have the right style of play to take down Patrick Mahomes and company on Saturday night.

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this Wild Card showdown.

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Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds, spread, and total

Dolphins vs. Chiefs betting trends

  • Dolphins are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games
  • The OVER is 12-4 in the Dolphins' last 16 road games
  • Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played in Kansas City
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the Chiefs' last five games
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Chiefs' last five home games
  • Chiefs are 15-3 straight up in their last 18 games vs. AFC opponents

Dolphins vs. Chiefs injury reports

Miami Dolphins injury report

  • Tyreek Hill - WR - Questionable
  • Jaylen Waddle - WR - Questionable
  • Jalen Ramsey - CB - Questionable
  • Liam Eichenberg - OT - Questionable
  • De'Von Achane - RB - Questionable

Kansas City Chiefs injury report

  • Kadarius Toney - WR - Questionable
  • Bryan Cook - S - IR
  • Justyn Ross - WR - Questionable
  • Donovan Smith - OT - Questionable
  • L'Jarius Sneed - CB - Questionable

Dolphins vs. Chiefs how to watch

  • Date: Saturday, January 13
  • Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
  • Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): Peacock
  • Miami Dolphins Record: 11-6
  • Kansas City Chiefs Record: 11-6

Dolphins vs. Chiefs key players to watch

Miami Dolphins

De'Von Achane: The key to the Dolphins upsetting the Chiefs is running the football and they'd be smart to get De'Von Achane going early and often in this game. He's averaging a blistering 7.8 yards per rush on the season and might just be their best offensive weapon next to Tyreek Hill.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs quarterback is coming off his worst statistical season of his career. Sure, his worst is still better than 90% of NFL quarterbacks, but it's clear he hasn't shown his best stuff this season. The good news for him is they're in the playoffs as the No. 3 seed and if he is able to turn things on in the postseason, the Chiefs will be hard to beat.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction and pick

There is a lot of talk that the Chiefs are the obvious bet here due to the Dolphins being "frauds", but as the fraud expert, I disagree. Have they struggled to get wins against good teams this season? Absolutely, but I don't think they're being severely outplayed in those games.

If you want an example we don't have to look much further than the previous meeting between these two teams. The Chiefs beat the Dolphins in Germany earlier this season, but the Dolphins gained more yards per play in that matchup, 5.0 to 4.8. Unfortunately, for them, a special teams touchdown was the difference, which was the exact same difference maker in their Week 18 loss to the Bills.

Frauds are teams with good records and bad metrics. Frauds are NOT teams with great metrics that lose close games due to a play or two going against them.

Everyone likes to talk about the Dolphins' dynamic passing attack, and for good reason, but not enough people recognize how good they are at running the football. They lead the NFL in yards per carry (5.1) and rank fifth in both Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate. They gained a blistering 5.6 yards per carry against the Chiefs in their regular season meeting.

That could be the key to success for them this weekend. As good as the Chiefs' defense is, they struggle to stop the run. They're 24th in opponent yards per carry (4.5), 28th in opponent Rush EPA, and 17th in opponent rush success rate.

I don't care the weather is supposed to be cold in Kansas City on Saturday night, that's already been baked into the line. There's one side that has better metrics, an arguable stylistic advantage, and also getting more than a field goal worth of points. Give me that side 10 times out of 10.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!