Miami Dolphins magic number to win the AFC East is 4

The Miami Dolphins are in full control over their 2023 season and the magic number to clinch the AFC East is four games.

Nov 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17)
Nov 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
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While the Miami Dolphins continue to roll through their 2023 season, they are approaching something they haven't done since 2008. Win the division.

A win on Sunday in Washington will give Miami a comfortable three-game lead over the Bills who are at 6-6. The Bills are on a bye this weekend.

The question many fans are asking is how soon can the Dolphins realistically clinch the AFC East? It is pretty simple actually.

The Dolphins are in a good position to win their next three games. They will be favored in all three. Miami would enter week 15, 10-3 and when they host the Jets.

If Miami beats both the Commanders and the Titans and the Bills lose to the Chiefs in K.C. and the Cowboys in Buffalo, Miami will have a four-game lead heading into the Jets game. If the Dolphins beat the Jets in that scenario, they win the division.

If the Bills split with the Chiefs and Cowboys, Miami will still be able to clinch the AFC East at home against the Jets. The Bills would enter that weekend, week 15, at 7-6. A win by Miami against the Jets would put Miami at 11-3, a 4 game lead over the Bills with three games remaining.

For Buffalo, the next two games are critical provided the Dolphins beat the Commanders and the Titans. Buffalo has no margin for error if Miami continues to win.

The soonest the Dolphins can clinch is against the Jets in week 15. Miami would enter that weekend at best 10-3 and if the Bills lose to the Chiefs, they would be 6-7. Miami would have a four-game lead with four games to go.

For Miami, it is simple. Keep winning. If the Dolphins win four out of six they lock up the division. If the Bills lose one or both of their next two games, the Dolphins will be able to lock it up week 15.