Mike Clay of NFL.com posted a breakdown of the Miami Dolphins 2023 season with win potentials, stat potentials, and a focus on the Dolphins defense but in the corner was Miami's 2023 schedule. Naturally, we would assume that is just a holder but in most cases, reporters don't typically get creative with a schedule.
In this case, Clay does get creative with home and away games as well as an early week five bye. Clay's metrics are used to show the Dolphins win percentage of each game. For example, in week one, the Dolphins would be visiting the Jets where they have a 53% winning chance and a predictive score of 23.7 to 22.8.
Miami would then come home to open their Hard Rock Stadium season against the Cowboys where their win percentage would drop to 48% with a predictive 22.0 to 23.4 score.
We have to assume that this is 100% not the real Miami Dolphins schedule and frankly, Clay would be in a world of trouble if it were. The reason is quite simple, typically the schedule isn't completed until a few days prior to the actual release after fine tuning and checks and rechecks but the metrics are still interesting and will of course, change with the actual schedule.
For example, the Dolphins have a 38% chance to beat the Chiefs (week 4 on Clay's schedule) and the Jets, again, are a 53% chance of victory in week one, in New York. That number is likely to be different if that opener is played in Miami and the Chiefs will likely see their winning potential go up if the game is played late in the season at Arrowhead.
If we are to go off the metrics of this information, the Dolphins would finish the season with 11 wins and that should be enough to get the Dolphins back into the playoffs.
Miami's below 50% games are against the Bills (both games at 38% in Buffalo and 46% late in the season in Miami. 46% against the Chargers in L.A., and 45% against the Eagles in Philadelphia.
Like everything else this time of year, speculation is all we have until the real fun begins at the end of July. Predicting the Dolphins to win 11 games is a good indicator of where the team is currently in terms of their roster and any time you throw mathematics and computer generated models into the equation, the NFL nerds come out in us all.