Panthers vs. Dolphins best NFL prop bets for Week 6
How to back Raheem Mostert and Tyreek Hill in the player prop market
By Reed Wallach
The Miami Dolphins are expected to win in another blowout, but whether the games are close or not, we are always looking to make money.
With arguably the best offense in football, the Dolphins are looking to dispose of another outmatched opponent in the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium. While De'Von Achane is set to miss several weeks with a knee injury, the Miami offense still has the likes of Raheem Mostert and Tyreek Hill in favorable matchups that can dominante the Carolina defense.
Here is how I'm looking to play on Mostert and Hill from a player prop perspective.
Best prop bets for Panthers vs. Dolphins in NFL Week 6
- Raheem Mostert OVER 77.5 rushing yards
- Tyreek Hill OVER 6.5 receptions
- Jonathan Mingo OVER 34.5 receiving yards
Raheem Mostert OVER 77.5 rushing yards
Achane was eating into Mostert's volume as the rookie emerged, but with him back on the sideline we can count on the Dolphins lead back to get back to a heavy workload.
Achane missed Week 1, played 10% of snaps in Week 2 before playing over 40% in the last three games. Mostert saw his numbers dwindle to below 60% in three straight after being on the field for over 70% of snaps in the first two games. The trend is clear that Achane was eating away at Mostert's reps.
In the first two weeks of the season, Mostert rushed for 37 yards on 10 carries in a pass heavy script against the Chargers and 121 yards on 18 carries in a positive game state for nearly the entire game against the Patriots.
Carolina is last in the NFL in EPA/Rush and with Mostert retaking his role as the every down back, he should have a monster output as the Dolphins will likely be playing from ahead.
Tyreek Hill OVER 6.5 receptions
Even in a blowout, Hill finds a way to get open and get the ball. He has at least nine targets in every game but one this season and I imagine he'll have a monster out yet against a Panthers defense that is bottom half of the NFL (22nd) in success rate against the pass.
There are too many advantages for Hill, whether it's speed or his hands, that makes him a sure thing to get over this lofty total and get to seven catches.
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Jonathan Mingo OVER 34.5 receiving yards
Mingo continues to see a ton of targets, he has at least five in all four games that he has played in, but only went over this number for the first time last week in a blowout loss to the Lions.
With another projected blowout on the way against the Dolphins, I think we see a ton of garbage time and extra reps for the Ole Miss product with Bryce Young. We saw Young find a rhythm when the game was out of reach and I can see a similar game script playing out here on Sunday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium.
Mingo has been on the field for over 85% of snaps in every game he played in except for Week 3 (when he got hurt and cost him a Week 4 appearance as well), so we can count on him to be on the field. Further, the Dolphins are 30th in passing success rate allowed, so I expect Carolina to have the passing game in decent shape for this one.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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