When the Miami Dolphins host the Raiders on Sunday, they have to avoid becoming the first team in 2023 to lose while scoring more than 20 points in a game.
Defensively, the Raiders have given up 205 points this year, and Miami for comparison has given up 225. Looking at the games they lost this year, the defense is clearly the key to their wins and losses and this is where the Dolphins should be able to take control of the game.
In their five wins this season, the Raiders defense has not given up more than 20 points.
- Week 1: 16 points to Denver
- Week 5: 13 points to Green Bay
- Week 6: 17 points to New England
- Week 9: 6 points to the Giants
- Week 10: 12 points to the Jets
When the defense gives up more than 20 points, the Raiders have lost. Las Vegas isn't a big-scoring offense. On the season so far, they have scored more than 20 points only twice. 30 points against the Giants two weeks ago and 21 points against the Patriots.
In all three of the Miami Dolphins' losses, the offense has failed to produce more than 20 points. They have scored 14 against the Chiefs, 17 against the Eagles, and 20 against the Bills.
This game is a recipe for two things. Maintain the status quo or implode. If the Dolphins can't score 20+ on the Raiders' defense can the Raiders score more than 20 on Miami's?
That isn't a recipe for winning and if the Dolphins can't win this weekend, they really need to take a long look in the mirror. Everyone can say "any given Sunday" but the reality is different. This is a game the Dolphins absolutely should win and if we are being honest, convincingly.
Could this be Miami's trap game? It shouldn't be. Miami is too well-coached for that and coming off a big loss to the Chiefs and then a bye week, Miami should be playing well above their opponent on Sunday.
I haven't made many predictions this year but Miami should get back into the 30-point offensive output range and I wouldn't be surprised to see the defense contribute actual points this week as well.
Dolphins 38 - Raider 17