When fans and the Miami Dolphins look back on the 2024 NFL season, one word will come to mind should Miami fail to make the playoffs, and that is "slide."
The importance of a season can often ride on one decision. Sometimes it might be a missed field goal against a division rival that ultimately comes back later in the year when tie-breakers are applied to playoff seeding. In this case, the entire Dolphins season could come down to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa not sliding against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2.
Four teams are ahead of the Dolphins for the final playoff spot in the AFC after Week 1: the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, and Los Angeles Chargers. Without getting into early specifics and tie-breaker scenarios, the Dolphins need these four teams to lose games.
Predicting the final records of 4 teams the Miami Dolphins trail in the AFC playoff race after Week 11
Indianapolis Colts
Record after Week 11: 5-6
AFC Seed after Week 11: No. 8
The Colts are 5-6, and had they lost to the New York Jets on Sunday, Miami would be in a better position. Indianapolis's schedule isn't easy, but there is a clear path to the playoffs if they can win a couple of key games.
The Colts also still have their bye week this season, which will allow the Dolphins to pick up a half-game in the standings.
- Week 12 - vs. Detroit Lions (L) - The Colts are not going to win this game.
- Week 13 - at New England Patriots (L) - This could easily go either way, but the Patriots should win it.
- Week 14 - Bye
- Week 15 - at Denver Broncos (L) - This is a must-win game for Indianapolis, but they will lose.
- Week 16 - Tennessee Titans (W) - Tough division game, but a win for the Colts.
- Week 17 - at New York Giants (W) - The Giants are a horrible football team, so Indianapolis will win.
- Week 18 - Jacksonville Jaguars (W) - Tough division game, but one the Colts should win.
Final Record Prediction: 8-9
Indianapolis will win three of their final six games, losing to the Broncos, Patriots, and Lions.
Denver Broncos
Record after Week 11: 6-5
AFC Seed after Week 11: No. 7
The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and they are the team that will likely keep Miami out of the playoffs in 2024, no matter what the Dolphins do the rest of the year. The saving grace? Denver still has a bye week that could give Miami a chance.
- Week 12 - at Las Vegas Raiders (W) - The Broncos will crush Las Vegas.
- Week 13 - Cleveland Browns (W) - The Browns could upset Denver, but it's not likely.
- Week 14 - Bye
- Week 15 - Indianapolis Colts (W) - A Colts win would help the Dolphins a lot, but Indianapolis is not that good.
- Week 16 - at Los Angeles Chargers (L) - This is a tough game and could put the Chargers on the bubble should they lose.
- Week 17 - at Cincinnati Bengals (W) - The Bengals can play spoiler, but can they?
- Week 18 - Chiefs (W) - A blocked field goal halted a great upset by Denver in Week 10.
Final Record Prediction: 11-6
The Broncos enter the final stretch with a favorable schedule. There are no games that are guaranteed losses for Denver.
They will likely come out of their bye with an 8-5 record and head into Week 16 with a 9-5 record. The Chargers and the Chiefs are the Broncos's biggest games remaining, and they will probably lose one of them. The bye week should help Miami get back into the picture.
Baltimore Ravens
Record after Week 11: 7-4
AFC Seed after Week 11: No. 6
The Ravens got knocked down a peg on Sunday with a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Baltimore is 7-4 and has not had its bye week yet, which gives the Dolphins an opportunity to gain some ground.
That being said, Baltimore is too good of a football team to lose enough games for Miami to overtake them or even tie them. That being said, the Ravens do not have an easy schedule ahead of them with four tough games remaining.
- Week 12 - at Los Angeles Chargers (W) - Win or lose, and it helps Miami.
- Week 13 - Philadelphia Eagles (L) - Tough game for both teams, but an Eagles win would be fantastic.
- Week 14 - Bye
- Week 15 - at New York Giants (W) - The Ravens are not losing this one.
- Week 16 - Pittsburgh Steelers (L) - New York got beat in Week 11 by Pittsburgh. It's another tough game, but this one's at home.
- Week 17 - at Houston Texans (W) - The Texans are not as good as they were last year, but they can still compete.
- Week 18 - Cleveland Browns (W) - When these teams play, anything can happen.
Final Record Prediction: 11-6
Baltimore should beat the Chargers, Giants, Browns, and Texans while losing to the Eagles and Steelers.
Los Angeles Chargers
Record after Week 11: 7-3
AFC Seed after Week 11: No. 5
The Chargers are interesting because they have no bye week remaining and could easily slide out of the playoffs with a couple of losses.
Los Angeles is well-coached, so this may not happen. Beating the Bengals on Sunday night helped their chances of making the playoffs.
- Week 12 - Baltimore Ravens (L) - This is a huge game for both teams and Dolphins fans will be keeping an eye on it.
- Week 13 - at Atlanta Falcons (W) - Atlanta is going in the wrong direction.
- Week 14 - at Kansas City Chiefs (L) - This is a game that will define the Chargers season.
- Week 15 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (L) - Another tough game at home for Los Angeles.
- Week 16 - Denver Broncos (L) - The playoffs could be on the line this weekend.
- Week 17 - at New England Patriots (W) - Will they let down on a cross-country road trip in cold weather?
- Week 18 - at Las Vegas Raiders (W) - They will win this one.
Final Record Prediction: 10-7
This is the team to watch closely for Dolphins fans. The Chargers are playing well but also inconsistent and their defense can't hold leads.
I have them losing four of their final seven, with those losses being to the Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Broncos. They need to steal one of those four games.