The Miami Dolphins' 2026 season has gone pretty much as expected. The early pre-season belief that the Dolphins were going to be better than they were quickly faded after a loss to the Raiders.
Long before the season, we made two separate predictive pieces. One on their 2026 record and another one about five reasons fans should be thrilled heading into the season.
Surprises aside, we wanted to take a look back at those and see how close we were or how insanely off those predictions turned out to be.
Miami Dolphins preseason predictions are not going the way we had all hoped
Let's start with the one area that everyone knows was wrong. The Dolphins' win/loss record. In May, just after the schedule was released, we predicted the Dolphins would beat the Raiders and Bengals. In our final record prediction piece, we thought the Raiders and Vikings would be their early victories.
Clearly, we were wrong. Miami put up a great fight against the Vikings, but nothing has gone the way most fans expected. Our final prediction pieces, posted in September, had the Dolphins not winning their first game until Week 10 against the Colts. We have them beating the Jets in Miami two weeks later.
Originally, we thought that Miami would pull out four wins, but now two might be the best fans can hope for.
In July, we took a pre-training camp look at the team and wondered what surprises might be ahead, and of those, what will get the Dolphins fans' juices flowing? Five weeks in, how did we do?
Prediction: Defense will be better than expected - True
There are many areas that could use work, but the Dolphins' defense has been surprisingly better than we expected, given the youth and system change. Over five weeks, fans could argue that the defense has kept the Dolphins close in every game.
From Jacob Rodriguez to JuJu Brents and even Jordan Phillips, Miami has managed to keep pace with other teams. Their only bad game was against the 49ers in Week 2. The best part is that they have improved week-to-week.
Prediction: TuTu Atwell Earns a New Contract - False
We expected to see fireworks from Atwell, but training camp did nothing but show that a trio of rookies was better than he was. Atwell was traded back to the Rams for Jarquez Hunter, who is no longer on the roster. Yeah, this one was way off.
Prediction: Jacob Rodriguez' DROTY Potential - True
J-Rod continues to surprise everyone. From a double-digit tackle debut to a league-leading single-game total of 18 tackles, Rodriguez' 54 tackles this season have him on top of the entire NFL. That will change during the bye week, but J-Rod has been everything and more that the Dolphins could have hoped for.
Will he win Rookie of the Year? There is a lot of time between now and the end of the season, but so far, his name is drawing a lot of attention in that race.
Prediction: Chop Robinson Returns to Form - Verdict still out
Robinson wasn't able to generate much pass rush early, then was out due to a concussion, and returned to register his first sack in Week 4. The Dolphins as a whole are not playing well off the edge. Robinson has shown flashes, but those are things Dolphins fans have seen before. There is still a lack of consistency.
This prediction could still come to fruition, but Robinson has to start playing a lot better and making a larger impact than he is.
Prediction: Malik Willis Makes QB Decision Hard on GM - False
Five weeks into the season, the only thing fans want to see is the Dolphins draft another QB in 2027. He has been erratic, inconsistent, and has done little to show anyone that he is capable of being the long-term answer to the Dolphins' quarterback woes.
If anything, Willis' early 2026 performance has given Sullivan a reason to pay more attention to next year's quarterback class.
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