It's been stated time and time again this offseason that it's not about wins and losses for the Miami Dolphins in 2026. Even new head coach Jeff Hafley admitted as much in late August.
When you're spending $180 million on players no longer with the team, it's challenging to build a competent roster. That's why Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan essentially get a mulligan on the year, focusing primarily on the development of their young team.
Arguably, Miami's biggest development project comes under center in starting quarterback Malik Willis, whom Sullivan and Hafley lured with them from the Green Bay Packers once free agency kicked off. Signing a three-year, $67.5 million deal, the Dolphins essentially inked Willis to be their franchise QB for the foreseeable future.
However, it's imperative that, following the 2026 season, they find out whether that's true or not one way or the other.
The Miami Dolphins can ill afford question marks around Malik Willis after the 2026 season
Regardless of how Willis performs this year, Miami is not expected to win many games. Almost unanimously, it's widely believed the Dolphins will be picking in the top five of the 2027 NFL Draft, if not holding onto the No. 1 overall pick outright when the season's all said and done. That's why Miami must know what they have in Willis by that time.
The Dolphins have been searching for their next franchise quarterback ever since the wonder years of Dan Marino. Over two dozen QBs have started for Miami since that time, but none have panned out as "the guy" to carry them back into contendership. Yet, they have had a couple of posers along the way.
Ryan Tannehill was overdrafted and never proved he wasn't
Some may view poser as a harsh word to describe Ryan Tannehill and Tua Tagovailoa, but given the amount of money they were paid by the Dolphins' organization in extensions, I think it's warranted. With both Tannehill and Tagovailoa, the Miami fan base was split at points whether each could be the franchise guy or not. And by all accounts, those within the organization seemed split on the idea as well, with those in favor ultimately winning out before realizing it was too late.
That cannot happen when it comes to Willis.
With Tannehill, speculation began immediately when the Dolphins selected him in 2012. He was originally a wide receiver at Texas A&M before moving to quarterback, yet the Dolphins were still intrigued enough by him to take him in the top 10 at No. 8 overall.
Despite the limited experience at the position, expectations are at their highest with that kind of draft capital. It didn't help that the Dolphins were starving for a franchise QB well past the Marino era.
Tannehill started immediately, which was good for his development. He also improved every year, which made him promising. But, in truth, Tannehill was just "fine" as an NFL quarterback. At no point was he ever an elite or even top-10 QB, but that didn't stop several from believing he could be -- including the Dolphins.
In 2015, the Dolphins gave Tannehill a six-year extension, crowning him as Miami's franchise guy without ever giving him true competition to earn it. The following year, Tannehill helped lead Miami to the postseason, but a knee injury forced him to sit out the playoffs.
The following year, Tannehill suffered a torn ACL in training camp and missed the entire 2017 season. After that, now six years with the organization, questions about him being the franchise guy still remained. In reality, though, if you can't truly evaluate a player after that long, then they're not the right fit.
So, Miami waited too long in the process and found out the hard way. With Brian Flores entering as the team's head coach, the Dolphins traded Tannehill to the Tennessee Titans in March 2019. With a rebuilding year on the horizon, everyone knew the Dolphins would have their sights on a quarterback in 2020.
Dolphins swung and missed on Tua Tagovailoa with Justin Herbert still on the board
In true transparency, I wanted Tua more than anyone in that 2020 NFL Draft. And I was not alone, as Tagovailoa was probably the most celebrated draft selection in the team's modern history when it happened.
But fast-forward more than six years, and it was clearly the wrong move. Tua's career is now closer to the brink of being over, whereas Justin Herbert's, whom the Los Angeles Chargers selected one pick after Tua, is thriving.
Unlike with Tannehill, many fans believed Tua could finally be the guy the Dolphins have been searching for all this time, and for good reason. Prior to his injury at Alabama, he shined for the Crimson Tide, famously coming in for Jalen Hurts in the second half of the 2018 National Championship Game to rally the team to a title.
Even as a rookie, Tua had flashes that showed he had the "it" factor. It didn't help matters, though, that Flores frequently made the switch between him and Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter in his rookie season. Flores never believed Tua could be the guy and didn't hide that fact. The organization showed where its loyalties lay, however, by shockingly firing Flores in January 2022.
In came Mike McDaniel, and along with him, confidence was restored in Tua. McDaniel's offenses in 2022 and 2023 showcased that confidence. Despite not having the desired arm strength, Tua looked competent as Miami's franchise QB with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as his top receivers.
Tua's concussions, though, were the hot topic in 2022, even leading the NFL to make drastic changes to address head injuries. It's debatable how many concussions Tagovailoa actually suffered that year, but it was certainly more than one, and the last one forced him to miss Miami's playoff game that year.
In 2023, though, Tua bounced back in a big way, and he earned his first Pro Bowl selection. However, like with Tannehill, everything was working until it wasn't.
The Dolphins' offense in 2023 was one of the best in the NFL, with Tua leading the league in passing yards. Yet, when they played against tougher defenses and/or in high-pressure games, Miami crumbled. And down the stretch, Miami certainly crumbled.
Early that December, the Dolphins had aspirations of the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the AFC. When it was all said and done, though, they lost out on a division title and were forced to travel to Kansas City to play in one of the coldest games ever recorded.
It was another disappointing finish after high expectations and raised the question of whether the Dolphins should give Tua an extension or not. Like with Tannehill, fans were mixed on Tua's ability to be the franchise guy. Arguments in favor of Tua pointed to the offense's success over the previous two seasons, as well as Tua's individual accomplishments in 2023, yet critics argued he couldn't win the big games.
Miami could've done nothing and allowed Tua to play on his fifth-year option, but eventually, they sided with the former and gave him a four-year extension worth over $53 million annually. Almost immediately, it proved to be a mistake.
The Dolphins still had high hopes for 2024, but it soon became clear that their window was closed. Tua played well that year, but injuries -- including another concussion -- returned, and the team never recovered.
Last year, Tua's limitations were greatly demonstrated. Quickly, Miami's offense went from one of the NFL's best to a bottom-tier offense. Part of it was that teams had figured out McDaniel, and he couldn't adjust, but Tua couldn't adjust either. Like with Tannehill, when everything around him was perfect, so was he. But when things got uncomfortable, the struggles were endless.
The majority of fans knew that it was the end of Tagovailoa in Miami, but a select few still believed in his ability. Nevertheless, the Dolphins released Tua this past March, absorbing a $99+ million cap hit in dead money over the course of this season and next.
Dolphins must know what they have in Malik Willis to address 2027 draft accurately
And that is what leads us to today. With Tua and several other high-profile players still getting paid by the Dolphins, even though they're no longer in the building, Miami has been forced to rely on incoming rookies and veteran minimum deals to build a roster for 2026.
Willis, though, was the only substantial player the Dolphins signed in free agency. It speaks volumes, too, that Sullivan and Hafley believe in him, as he was signed as soon as free agency kicked off and immediately after Tua's release. Now, Willis needs to prove them right.
Or wrong, for that matter. Either way, the worst-case scenario for Miami is not knowing what they have. Point-blank, the Dolphins cannot afford to end the 2026 season with questions still surrounding Willis.
Unlike with Tannehill and Tua, Willis doesn't have the core pieces around him to be great this year. Yes, Caleb Douglas has flashed this offseason, and there are high hopes for Chris Bell stemming from his impressive return, but both are rookies and are expected to struggle to some degree.
Without the weapons, will that be an excuse given to Willis if he performs poorly? Will it prevent Miami from giving him a full evaluation over the year? Two very important questions that may not get answered.
Again, wins and losses do not determine the evaluation this season. Willis has every chance to kick off his Dolphins career with a bang vs. the Raiders. In truth, it's probably Miami's best opportunity for a win this season.
Still, there are scenarios where the Dolphins can be bad, but Willis proves he's the guy. Miami's defense is expected to be one of the NFL's worst, and if the Dolphins are losing every game but the offense is putting up points and moving the ball, we'll know Willis isn't the problem.
But if there are at all any déjà vu moments similar to the Tannehill and Tua days, to where the fan base (more importantly, the organization) is split on Willis' ability, it could prove disastrous for the Dolphins going forward.
The 2027 NFL Draft is expected to be a deep one for quarterbacks, and with Miami expected to pick in the top five, it's essential they know what they have in Willis. If it's clear he's not the guy, they can use their top selection on a top-rated QB coming out. On the other hand, if Willis does prove himself, it gives the Dolphins options.
In that case, Miami could draft one of the top premier non-quarterbacks on the board, or even trade down with another team to pick up additional draft capital. Based on this past April's results, Sullivan proved he likes the latter option very much.
Whatever it may be, the Dolphins cannot be left wondering what they have. It's a totally new regime, but if that's the end result, then it's the organization repeating the same mistakes. And if that's how it plays out, it's likely to lead to another disastrous run for an organization that hasn't won a playoff game in over 25 years.
Add us as a preferred source on Google