I’m sick and tired of everyone picking the Miami Dolphins to finish last in the AFC East. Really? The reasoning is always the same, “uncertainty at the quarterback position and a weak receiving cast.” OK, let’s completely ignore the defense and the explosive rushing attack. Really?
First of all, let’s forget the stupid lessons taught by Bill Parcells. “You are what your record says you are” is caveman talk. The Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills were both 6-10 last year but the Phins were +16 in point differential and the Bills were -62. The New York Jets were 8-8 and had a +14 differential. Miami underachieved last year. Tony Sparano did not maximize their production and they began the season with Chad Henne as their quarterback. Down the stretch, with Matt Moore at the helm, the Phins defeated both the Bills and Jets.
Miami has uncertainty at the quarterback position but it is “good” uncertainty. Moore is the incumbent and he sets the standard. The Dolphins’ quarterback will be Moore or better, if David Garrard or rookie Ryan Tannehill beat him in the preseason competition. Regardless, Moore is the bar and it is higher than Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Moore easily had a better quarterback rating than all three, last year. I have discussed this issue in the past, Ranking the Quarterbacks of the AFC East. Of course, since my post, the arrow has gone up for Garrard and Tannehill.
As terrible as Henne was with Miami, he holds a higher career quarterback rating than Mark Sanchez’ 73.2. Yes, Sanchez is that bad.
So the Bills added Mario Williams. He improves the team but from top to bottom, Buffalo cannot boast superiority in any positional set, offensive or defensive. The Bills’ running game will be stout if Fred Jackson is healthy but I would rather have Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, and Daniel Thomas than Jackson and C.J. Spiller. I also think Cameron Wake will rival Williams’ stats.
I even expect the Phins’ receivers to be better. The Bills have Stevie Johnson but not much else. How can anyone think this team will be better than Miami?
The Jets are headed for a disastrous season, Five Reasons Why the Dolphins are Better than the Jets. They are weak at the quarterback position and the offensive backfield. Santonio Holmes may be their only decent receiver unless Stephen Hill provides immediate dividends. Regardless, their offense will be terrible.
The Jets have a better secondary than Miami but that is all. Their locker room was a huge problem at the end of the season and that is not something that can easily be mended.
I expect the Phins will take three of four from the Bills and Jets.
By the way, during the regular season, the New York Giants were 9-7 with a point differential of -6. The Miami Dolphins are not as far away as you may think.
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