Why They Didn't Win

The regular season is over and like most fans, I have been sitting in front of a television as if it were the media week prior to the Super Bowl.  With the way fans have been jumping up and down, you would think it was.  Looking for any and all news, a high-light reel, a player comment, quote, or a coaches “We need to stay focused” soundbite, has been pretty easy…once you listen to all the Dallas Cowboys blew it talk.  Still, props, a predicted victory, something that says “Hey, the Miami Dolphins are a good team”…nope.  Not a bit.

On NFL Network, Jim Mora said that “the best team in the AFC East didn’t make the playoffs”.  That of course in his opinion, the New England Patriots.  If they were the best, they would be in the Playoffs.  They might have even won the division.  But of course they did beat up on Seattle and Arizona.

Pick up the remote and change it to ESPN and you hear, “hey the Dolphins did really well this year, but they don’t match up with the Baltimore Ravens.”  Or…”The Dolphins offense can’t score on their defense.”  Or…”This game is Baltimore’s and the Dolphins better hope they can hold onto the ball or it will be a very long day“.

Yep, no respect.  Which of course is a good thing.  It gives the Phins the opportunity to focus on something other than “We made the playoffs”.  It gives them something to shoot for, some pride that still needs a bit of catering too.  It gives them a reason to be angry and wan’t more.  The Ravens by the way are favored by 3.

I spoke to a friend of mine who knows quite a bit more than I do about betting lines…I don’t gamble, and he told me that had the NE Patriots won the division they would have opened around 7 point favorites against the Ravens.  That’s quite a bit and a 10 point swing from the Dolphins.  So, if the Patriots are so good and the Dolphins so bad, then why didn’t they win the division?  Here’s a look at the rest of the AFC East.Why the New England Patriots didn’t win the division:

Forget about all the whining fans in New England about an 11-5 record or the idiots who say the team would be undefeated if Tom Brady hadn’t gone down and blah blah blah.  The truth is the Patriots played just as well if not better than they would have with Brady in the lineup.

For one, Matt Cassel gave the team something they definitively don’t have with Brady.  A QB who can scramble and run.  Brady can move around and jog down the field, Cassel can sprint and make people miss.  Cassel also has that “I’m not Tom Brady but I can’t beat your ass” attitude.  It’s the kind that is going to make him very rich in another 3 months when he either “A” get’s tagged by Belichick or becomes a free agent.

The real reason the Pats are not in the playoffs has nothing to do with Cassel and everything to do with their defense and their running game.  Only until the last few weeks of the season did their running game take off, ironically it was when they got Sammy Morris back in the lineup.  Prior to that, the Patriots were using some guy named BenJarvis Green-Ellis…or something like that.

Looking back on their schedule, the Bradyless Patriots were 2-0 before giving up 38 points to the Miami Dolphins “Wildcard” package.  Something that many of their fans still call a gimmick.  Maybe so, but it is really no different than the spread offense empty backfield that the Patriots use.  It’s a part of the offensive system.  In week 3 it caught them off guard.  In the re-match, the spread formation caught Miami off guard.

The Patriots would get beaten badly by San Diego 3 weeks later.  It was the NE defense that gave up 30 points while the offense sputtered behind no rushing attack.    They wouldn’t lose again until their yearly match with the Indy Colts.  Then they would lose two weeks later to the Jets.  With no rushing attack to speak of, defenses keyed in on the NE spread formations and the underneath route running of Wes Welker.

That loss, to the Jets, began to set up the rest of the season.  At 8-3 following their win in Miami, the Patriots fell victim to the top ranked defense in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The loss put them at 5 for the season and they would win out.

The Patriots finished 11-5 and tied for first in the AFC East.  They lost because of their conference record.  The Patriots beat Kansas City, Denver, and Oakland, but lost to San Diego and Indy.  They swept Buffalo and split with Miami and NY giving them 7 wins in the AFC.  Miami on the other hand, beat San Diego, Oakland, Denver, and Kansas City while losing to Baltimore.  With their splits with NE and NY and sweep of Buffalo.  The Phins posted 8 conference wins giving them the tie-breaker.

While an argument will likely be made by Patriot fans as to who is the better team, Indy or Baltimore, both Miami and NE lost to them respectively early in the season before each team began their win streaks.

The Patriots lost the division for no real problems of their own.  Each team faced only 2 different opponents.  The Cots and Steelers for the Patriots and the Ravens and Houston for Miami.  All things considered equal, both teams lost those games.

In the end, there is no way to tell who was the better team or the worst on paper.  Each team lost games they should have won, and won games they probably shouldn’t have.  It came down to conference wins and losses and the Patriots had one less.  They would have been far better off losing to the Cardinals at home and beating the Colts.

So why are they not in the playoffs…not because they were the lesser team, but because they didn’t win the ones they needed to win.

Tomorrow I will profile the Jets and Bills.