NFL MVP Odds: Does Tua Tagovailoa have a real chance of winning?

Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins /

Tua Tagovailoa is the most unexpected MVP candidate. But what do the oddsmakers in Vegas think of his chances?

Sunday was an off day for Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins due to their scheduled bye week, but there wasn’t much movement made to the odds in the race for league MVP.

Leading up to Week 11’s action, Tagovailoa was had either the second or third-shortest odds of winning the award, depending on which outlet you checked. Patrick Mahomes was and remains the undisputed leader of the bunch, with his odds hovering around +130. There are an established four quarterbacks behind him to make up the top five, though the order varies.

Jalen Hurts tends to have similar odds to Tagovailoa no matter the sports book, with Josh Allen coming in a shade behind. The distant fifth would be Lamar Jackson, with Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins coming up behind him (side note: the only non-QB in the consensus top-10 in MVP voting is Tyreek Hill). None of them had a performance worthy of serious line movement on Sunday, and Tua’s odds may have actually been shortened.

Hurts had the best performance of the bunch, mostly due to his running ability. He had 190 yards and a touchdown through the air, but also had 84 yards on 16 carries while adding another score. Allen continued his rough streak of games, but didn’t have any interceptions after throwing two in each of his last three games. He had 197 yards through the air and one touchdown. Jackson had 209 yards and an interception, but rushed for a touchdown and 31 yards.

On Monday morning, these were the MVP odds from some of the more popular outlets:

Mahomes: -150
Tagovailoa: +500
Hurts: +550
Allen +700
Burrow: +1800
Jackson: +3000

Mahomes: -160
Hurts: +600
Allen: +650
Tagovailoa: +650
Jackson/Burrow: +2600

William Hill US:
Mahomes: -140
Tagovailoa: +500
Allen: +550
Hurts: +650
Jackson/Burrow: +2500

Tua Tagovailoa will have a great chance to help his case this coming Sunday as he and the Dolphins will take on the Houston Texans, who will enter the game as the worst team in the NFL. Houston has a solid pass defense, but the status of the opposing secondary hasn’t mattered much when it comes to Tagovailoa’s numbers this season. He should benefit from a solid rushing attack, seeing as the Texans boast the league’s worst rush defense.

The MVP race will certainly become more interesting as we come down the home stretch of the season, and Tua Tagovailoa should be in the thick of things throughout.