Miami Dolphins likely to remain in the top 7 even if they lose tonight

The Miami Dolphins biggest game of the season will be played tonight in wintery Buffalo against the Bills. Miami’s only hope of an AFC title, demands a win.

Beating the Bills will not be easy in Orchard Park regardless of the weather. The Bills have owned the Dolphins in upper NY. If the Dolphins get out of the region with a victory, they will still need another team to knock off the Bills in the last three games while winning all of their games but a loss could knock the Dolphins into a four-way tie for two remaining spots.

In the AFC no team has clinched a playoff spot but that will change today.

• Buffalo will clinch a spot with a win tonight. They will also clinch if they tie with the Dolphins and the Chargers lose or both the Patriots and Jets lose.
• The Chiefs will clinch today with a victory ever the Houston Texans or a Chargers loss.

That’s the end of the who can clinch this weekend. Miami, sitting a 8-5 currently hold the 6th seed. The Titans hold a two-game lead over the Jaguars and the Ravens and Bengals will duke it out the rest of the way for the AFC North with the division loser taking over, more than likely, one of the Wild Card spots.

This leaves the Dolphins competing, in reality, with the Chargers, Jets, and Patriots. The problem is Miami has lost to two of those teams and should the Bengals falter and slide into a tie at the end with all four, Miami has no head-to-head tie breaker against them.

Miami Dolphins likely to remain in the top 7 even if they lost tonight.

The first tie-breaker, however, is divisional so in this scenario should the Dolphins lose tonight and both the Jets and Patriots win, the Dolphins are likely to hold the 6th or 7th seed regardless of tonight’s outcome. Here is why.

If the Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, and Chargers all end the weekend tied, or if any combination of those teams end up tied with Miami, the Dolphins will still control their fate.

In the division, the Jets have beaten Miami and have split with the Patriots. The Dolphins beat the Patriots and lost to the Jets. But because the Jets have lost to New England and beaten them, the head-to-head scenario then moves to division record.

Miami would be 2-2, the Patriots would be 2-2, and the Jets would be 2-3. Miami would then be ahead of both teams because of their victory over the Patriots.

If the Chargers finish tied with all of them, the same division tie-breakers knock out the Patriots and Jets and while Miami lost the head to head with L.A. the Dolphins would sit in the 7th seed.

Tonight is a big game without question. It gives them a cushion in the AFC Wild Card race and puts them one game back of a division title but if Miami loses, the sky won’t start to fall, officially, until next week when an out of conference game against Green Bay will have big playoff implications ahead of the Dolphins two-game finish against the Patriots and Jets, which now are starting to look like must-win scenarios and will be if Miami loses tonight.